25 Hawking Questions

What is their body of work?

In contrast to our last opponent, Miami fans are pretty happy this year.  After a horrific 2009, they are 5-4 this year, and if they can with 2 out of their last 3, they could easily end up in a bowl game.  They only have one conference loss, but that was to OU, so they still have a shot at winning the East.  If Temple beats OU and Miami beats Temple, BG and Akron, Miami would win the East.

They lost to Florida and Missouri, and probably most regret a shellacking they took to rival UC, who are decidedly average this year

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

17

Do they have players in the National Top 20 rankings?

Armand Robinson is #12 in receptions per game.

What is their turnover ratio?

They are +2 for the season.  This was a huge issue last season, so I think you can trace some of their improvement to this.

Offense:

How is their QB Play?

Their QB play is very solid.  R-So Zac Dysert is #4 in the MAC in passing efficiency, and completes a high percentage of his passes in an offense where there is little run threat.  He has thrown 12 picks, so that's still a little bit of a problem.  He is from Ada, OH, where he was incredibly productive in HS.  While mostly a drop back QB, he can take off and run when the opportunity is there.

What is their scoring and yards per play?

The are tied for 8th in yards per play and 10th in scoring offense.

Can they run the ball?

When BG and Miami take the field Wednesday night, you will see the two worst rushing teams in the FBS.  Take pictures.  You can tell your kids.  (Note:  Coach Haywood is still committed to running the ball.  He said so.)

Do they pass the ball?

They are 3rd in the MAC in passing yards, first in completion percentage, and 6th in pass efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

Heavily weighted to the pass.  They pass on about 60% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

This is not a strong point.  They are 10th in the MAC in 3rd down conversions.

Do they score in the red zone?

This is a good example of what I think it wrong with how red zone stats are calculated.  The common method is to use percentages, with FGs and TDs counting the same.  On that measure, Miami is #7 with 78%.  But, they have 12 TDs and 10 FGs, which means that their 28 red zone drives have netted them only 113 points, which is about 4 points per trip and 112th in the nation.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They have given up 25 sacks, with is 10th in the MAC.  However, keep in mind that they are throwing the ball a lot.  That's 6.9% which is still pretty high.  They have a sack or INT on 10.3% of their passing attempts, which is about 1.5% more than normal.

The bottom line is that this team has a good QB and has had some success on offense.  They are far from a juggernaut, however, and there are weak parts to their game.  If BG's defense really is turning the corner, this is a great opportunity to show it.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

They are 7th in scoring defense and 8th in yards per play allowed.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Again...middle of the pack.  7th in yards per carry allowed.

Could they be passed on?

They are 8th in passing yards allowed and 6th in pass efficiency.  They are third in completion percentage and have 12 INTs.  By process of elimination, I am going to assume that they have given up some big plays and that is what is holding down their ranking.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are what we thought they were---in the middle of the pack, 8th.

Do they defend in the red zone?

This is case in point #2 for my red zone theory.  Miami leads the MAC by getting a stop 1/3 of the time.  But, when they do give up points, it is most likely to be a TD.  They are good, don't get me wrong.  They have 8 earned stops (downs, turnovers, etc) which is about one per game.  They just aren't top in the conference.

On points per trip, they are 5th in the MAC. (NIU is #4 in the nation, BTW).

Do they pressure the QB?

They are 7th in sacks, with 16

The bottom line here is that this an OK defense, but not a great defense.  BG's offense has really been struggling, and with guys healthy again for this week and our line back to normal (ish), I'd like to think that this would be a great time to see some things come together.

Special Teams:

Punting?

Miami is 8th in net punting.  They have not been blocked nor have their allowed a return TD.

Punt Return?

They are 10th in punt returns and somewhat below average in net punt yards.

Placekicking?

This has been unsettled.  Trevor Cook is their real kicker, but he is injured and is not on the depth chart this week.  Mason Krysinski (who has a kicker's name, for sure) is listed as the starter and has yet to try a FG in the heat of battle.

Kickoff?

They lead the MAC in kickoff coverage with teams starting on their own 24.

Kickoff Return?

Not a strong point.  They are 10th in the MAC and allow teams to start, on average, at the 32.  Their long is 50 and their are no TDs, which means that there are not any huge returns dragging that average up.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

Miami is much improved this year.  They are a good team, but not a great team.  If we are playing well, this is a team we should compete with, especially at home.  If we our team regresses, Dysert has the ability to light us up.

Miami's young team is facing two trap games in a row, and it will be a challenge for their coaches to keep them focused on BG and Akron leading into their game with Temple.  How that evolves will have an impact on how the game goes.

I think, on the other hand, that BG's players will be focused on trying to salvage part of the season, and playing without any real pressure.

Of course, there is the Miami Whammy, which dictates that what follows all of this is only misery and pain.  The roles are sort of reversed--normally, a poor Miami team wreaks karmic havoc on the Falcons, ruining our season, so perhaps this is one of those role reversal deals that is rich with irony.

Perhaps.