CMU Preview...Will the Beat Go On?

What is their body of work?

CMU is a traditional MAC power who has been in the wilderness for quite a while.  They rode the Brian Kelly/Butch Jones train to 2 10+ win seasons in 6 years, including a 12-2 ranked year in 2009. There were 3 MAC Championships in there.

In the 9 seasons with Dan Enos and John Bonamego, they won 8 games only once and were 1-11 in the last of those years.  In comes Jim McElwain.  There are a number of ways to bring coaches to the MAC.  You can get an up-and-comer--head coach or assistant.  Or, you can try to rehab a P4 coach...like Jim McElwain, who won 65% of his games at Florida before being fired.

He has won 49% in Mt. Pleasant, with 12-20 over the past three years (including this year), and is said to be on the hot seat.

They are 3-5 and 1-3.  They won their FCS game, beat SD State in Mt. Pleasant, and beat Ball State.  Losses are @FIU (blowout), @Ill, OU, @MU and @EMU.  They have lost 3 in a row.

BG and CMU haven't played much.  Only 3 times since 2010.  BG is 2-1 in that time, with a win by Carl Pelini and Loeffler splitting.  BG won the last meeting in 2022.  BG has won 3 straight at Kelly/Shorts Stadium and the last BG coach to lose there was Gregg Brandon.

BG is a 10 point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

29 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart. 

Who are their national leaders?

Donte Kent is #10 in punt returns.

Jordan Kwiatkowski is #17 in TFL.

(MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +3 in MAC play.  They have only one TO in MAC games.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Big issues here.  They started with Joe Labas, an Iowa transfer, who is out for the year.  They were to Bert Emmanuel, Jr., and he is now week-to-week and out this week.  This leaves them with Tyler Jefferson, a R-FR from Florida. He's only completed 49% with 0TDs and 1 INT. He is a dual-threat guy.  He started the EMU game, and Emmanuel came in and sparked a wild game they lost. He went the whole way against Miami's stout defense and struggled as expected.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They score 25 PPG (7th) and gain 6.1 yards per play (5th). BG's defense allows 17.3 points per game, which is 2nd.  The Falcons allow 4.8 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

They are strong here. #2 at 5.8 yards per rush.  Also, note that they have a running QB, something the Falcons have really struggled with. BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they are #11 in team passing efficiency.  Also their top WR, Evan Boyd, will not play.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 64% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  28% overall, #10 in the MAC.  BG allows 30% which is #4 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.8 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.5 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 2 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 11 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

No...sacks on 10% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36.3) and 9th in yards per play allowed (6.5).  BG scored 25.5 which is #8 and 5.5 yards per play which is #9.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 60% completions, 9 TDs over 1 INT and almost 13 yards a completion.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 69% completion is #2 in MAC.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

CMU allows 33%, which is #5.  BG converts 33%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 5 per trip, which is not great. BG offense scores 4.7 per trip, which is also not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Good pass rush, they have sacks on 9.4% of passes. BG allows sacks on 11% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #4 in net punting. They have been blocked once.  In MAC play, BG is #4.

Punt Return?

They are good, #6 in the MAC.  1 TD.

Placekicking? 

He's very good.  All games he's 11 of 13, 8-8 under 40 with a long of 54.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 25, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

So, look.  Rainy weather.  Certain to be a mostly empty stadium. BG coming off a big win and needs to refocus, which has been a problem for our program over the past few years.  CMU is not healthy.  This should be a good matchup for us and BG needs to click the W heading into a big game against WMU at the Doyt the following Tuesday.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (1-8)  Broke 11-game losing streaking by beat Colgate

PSU:  (7-1) Lost to OSU, suspect you saw this

TX A&M: (7-2) Lost @South Carolina

ODU:  (4-5)  Lost to App. State

Akron:  (2-7) Lost to Buffalo

NIU: (4-4) Resting for #MACTION

KSU:  (0-8) Resting for #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) Heart-stopping win over EMU

CMU (3-5) Resting for #MACTION

WMU: (5-3) Resting for #MACTION

BSU (3-5): Resting for #MACTION

MU:  (4-4) Resting for #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Here is how things look.  WIDE OPEN right now.  There is a strong possibility of a tie, so if you are curious here are the official tie breaker rules. Deep tie-breakers are an unanticipated consequence of getting rid of divisions, as multiple conferences are now realizing.  Best case is that head-to-head solves the issue.

The Opener...Southern Mississippi

MBB hits the road to open the season, heading down to Hattiesburg, MS to play Southern Mississippi in the road swing of the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge, which I love.  The other game will be at the Stroh and will be determined by the standings in order to engineer competitive matchups.

Southern Miss athletic alumni include Hall of Famers Brett Farve and Ray Guy. Not so much on the basketball side.  Wendell Ladner, the father of the current coach, was all-ABA rookie.  There was a Clarence Weatherspoon who played a few years in the NBA.

They have been to the NCAA tournament three times, the last time in 2013, a season that vaulted Larry Eustachy on to Iowa State.  Things went bad when they hired Donnie Tyndall, who coached two spectacular years there when it was revealed, among other things, that he had staff doing coursework for the players.  The NCAA called it "audacious." Those two years were vacated and he lost his job at Tennessee.

Today, he coaches at Chipola JC...where Chris Jans once coached and incoming Falcon Derrick Butler played.

I digress.

They moved to the Sun Belt two years ago.  They won the regular season title that year, and then last year had a super rough year.  PG Neftali Alvarez broke his foot in the pre-season and was out for the year.  Andre Curbelo, Illinois/St. John's transfer, was finally made eligible and then had a concussion and did not contribute meaningfully again.

Also, their head coach suffered a heart attack on February 6 and did not have a meaningful role for the remainder of the year.

So, a tough year.  They are back this year.  They were picked 5th in the official pre-season poll and 4th by Blue Ribbon.

They have played two exhibition games--against low-D1 New Orleans (they won 105-102) and Jackson State (also won, 92-85 in OT).  They were down 19 to Jackson State with 15 left to play before rallying. Neither of these are great signs for the team gelling early in the year.

They played a pretty straight 7-man rotation against Jackson State.  The players included:

Andre Curbelo...as mentioned, two-time transfer.  Plays internationally for Puerto Rico. He is 3rd-team All Sun Belt pre-season.  Had 29 points, 6 rebounds and 4 steals vs. Jackson State.  He is 6'0".  Drew 11 fouls in that game.

Denijay Harris was their other leading player.  He's 6'7" and NOT A TRANSFER. He had 25 points, 13 rebounds and made 9 of 14 2FGs. He's in his sixth year.

Christian Watson had 15 points and 8 boards.  He's 6'6" and was highly recruited before going to The Other Miami and playing sparingly for the Final Four team.

DeAntoni Green and 10 points and 7 rebounds. He is 6'6" and was All-OVC at Little Rock.  Has played 91 games.

Neftali Alvarez, coming off that broken foot, struggled in the Jackson State game. Playing his 7th season of college ball.

Cobie Montgomery is a 6'4" G and came off the bench. Hit 34% from 3FG.

Alfred Worrell, JR. Played about 10 minutes. Big 3FG shooter in JUCO.

This is an OLD team.  Of the 7 players I listed above, 5 of them are listed as R-SR or Grad Students and 2 are juniors/

Kenpom gives them a pretty good home court advantage at 3.3 points, #101 in the country.  BG's is 3.

Last year, they lost @Akron to kick off the challenge and then destroyed WMU in the home game, illustrating how much their fortunes faded over the season.

ESPN gives the Golden Eagles a 72% chance of winning.  I don't see a point spread.  Having said that, given a slow Southern Miss start, I think BG has a better shot than that, while being an underdog on the road is expected. 

MBB Preview

Monday, Men's Basketball is back. Doing these previews has gotten to be pretty impossible, given the number of new players we have each year.  Basically, I don't have any idea how good we are going to be and I don't think anyone does.  The only one with an idea is the staff.

One thing I think we can say for sure is that this team appears to be a lot better aligned with how Coach Simon wants to play.  Last year's team shot 29.6% from 3FG, 11th in the MAC.  BG was #5 in scoring thanks to Marcus Hill and his ability to get to the rim, and Rashaun Agee rebounding all those missed shots.

The guys who are coming in are much more likely to be 3FG shooters.

Also, BG probably wants to play faster.  We were #161 in the country and #4 in the MAC in tempo. The MAC was the #25 conference out of 33 in pace of play, so I suspect that BG would like to be at least at the top of that pile.

Just to re-orient ourselves:

Returning Contributors:

Trey Thomas G 6' 0'' 160 Sr. Toronto, Ontario, Canada / Crestwood Prep Vanderbilt

Former SEC player who battled injuries last year.  If healthy, I see him being the glue for this team as they gel.

DaJion Humphrey G 6' 4'' 185 Sr. Detroit, Mich. / Southfield Christian Garden City CC

Started 13 games, averaged 5.7 PPG.

Sam Towns F 6' 9'' 200 Sr. Columbus, Ohio / Pickerington Central Ohio

Strong contributor, played 19 games last year.  

Returning:

Jamai Felt F 6' 10'' 210 R-Fr. Boston, Mass. / Our Saviour Lutheran

Two years of knee injuries, Felt is 6'10" and if he is back to being healthy he has huge upside.  Has yet to play for BG.  Simon told Blue Ribbon that he might be the most athletic big man in the MAC...Huger thought the same.

New:

Alijah Adem  G 6' 2'' 160 Fr. Las Vegas, Nev. / Spring Valley

One of two FR on the roster. Is from Nevada, averaged 26 points and 7.8 assists per game.  The latter number led the state.

Derrick Butler G 6' 2'' 195 Sr. Charlotte, N.C. / Quality Education Academy (N.C.) Central Michigan

Started 26 games for CMU last year, led team in 3FG and 3FG%. Had 17 points in Stroh against BG.

Javontae Campbell G 6' 2'' 155 Jr. Muskogee, Okla. / Muskogee Northern Oklahoma

#67 JUCO recruit.  Scored 26 PPG and 31% 3FG. #2 JUCO scorer.  Was injured but played on the BG foreign trip.

Wilguens Jr. Exacte F 6' 6'' 236 So. Montreal, Canada / College Notre Dame Utah

Played in Latin American NBA Academy.  Missed all of last year with injury, played 32 games as FR. Also a stretch.  Could be rehabbing.

Braelon Green G 6' 3'' 180 So. Southfield, Mich. / Southern California Academy Arizona State

Averaged 5.5 minutes per game at Az. State. Highly recruited out of Michigan. Will play 1 and 2 for BG.

Marcus Johnson F 6' 7'' 265 Sr. Akron, Ohio / St. Vincent-St. Mary Wheeling

DII player.  Shot 45% from 3FG.  Kind of an Anderson Mirambeaux-body. Was hurt this summer.

Youssef Khayat F 6' 9'' 215 Jr. Beirut, Lebanon / Limoges CSP (France) Michigan

Averaged about 6 minutes per game in two years at UM. Had huge game against Spain in Olympic Qualifier. Simon says is a "three level scorer."

Mohamed Maxamud F 6' 10'' 190 Jr. Westerville, Ohio / Westerville Labette CC

Averaged 9.2 PPG and 4.4 RPG in JC

Jaxon Pardon G 6' 4'' 170 Fr. Fort Wayne, Ind. / Carroll

Other FR on roster.  Son of BG legend Brandon Pardon. 1,000 point HS scorer.

Preston Squire F 6' 11'' 225 So. Ephraim, Utah / Layton Salt Lake Community College

Stretch-4 like Jason Spurgin.  37% 3FG shooter.

OK, big picture.

The MAC has four signature programs: OU, UT, Kent and Akron. They are good almost every year. The fight, including BG, MU, BS and CMU, is who breaks into that group.  There can't be 8 competitive teams.

Who can break in?

Blue Ribbon picked BG #5 as did the MAC.  Kenpom projects BG #7.  Kenpom ranks BG #264 which is compared to the #239 from last year, projecting 14-15 and 8-10.

When I look at the roster, it seems like we might be a tough team to stop and have a shot with our coaches, but who really knows.  There certainly seems to be depth.

We had a foreign trip this year.  I always think that's a good way for a team to build a cohesive core before the season starts.

BG has 2 non-D1 games on the schedule.  They play @MSU and host Davidson, which is the top non-conference game. We don't have to play in the JAR.

I'm excited and looking forward to the season. I like our Coaches and I think they give us a shot and I think we will see a fast-paced, exciting team.  Off we go.