And down the stretch they come.....

 

Credit here to the MAC Sports Connection Podcast for sorting out the final permutations for the last week.  This is what I came up with as well.

If BG wins, they could play Ohio or Miami.  Note that the 5th scenario would be Buffalo win, not loss.

#4 is the one that gets crazy.  BG/UB/and OU are tied.  Among common opponents, BG and UB and undefeated and OU has a loss (Ball State).  Which eliminates them.  You got to head-to-head among BG and UB's common opponents, which is still a tie.  Both teams lost one game in a common opponent...BG lost to NIU and UB lost to WMU.  The tiebreaker would be decided by whether NIU or WMU finishes higher in the final standings, all tie breakers applied.

Ultimately, BG wins they are in and could play OU, Miami or UB.

BG can make it with a loss to Miami, but only if OU loses to Ball State, in Athens at the same time as our game. 

Candidly, as much as I love scenarios, I don't think Ball State is very likely to walk out of Athens with a win.  ESPN gives BG a 58% chance to win and OU an 87% chance to win.  Also, UB is likely to beat Kent. (93%).

But, it could happen.

The most likely scenario is that it will be OU. The scenario does exist where BG would have to beat Miami twice in a row to win the championship.

No one said it would be easy.

Here is the opponent tracker...

Fordham (2-9) Lost to Merrimack

PSU:  (10-1) Beat Minny by one

TX A&M: (8-3) Lost to Auburn in 4OT.

ODU:  (4-7)  Lost to Marshall.  No bowl for you.

Akron:  (3-7) #MACTION

NIU: (6-5) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-11) #MACTION

UT:  (7-4) #MACTION

CMU (4-7) #MACTION

WMU: (5-6) #MACTION

BSU (3-8): #MACTION

MU:  (7-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1