Preview of the Big Game

What is their body of work?

Miami is the traditional MAC power in football.  After Big Ben left, they went through some dark years--14 straight losing seasons--before Chuck Martin broke through in his sixth year with an 8-6 record.  The last two years have been excellent.  They are 13-2 in the last two years in the MAC and are the defending champions.

Since Martin arrived, the RedHawks are 5-2 against BG.  Jinks won one and Loeffler won the last game played at the Doyt.  Last year, Miami wiped BG out 27-0 in Oxford.

BG is a 2-point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 27 juniors and seniors, which is a young team in 2024.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +7 in MAC games, mostly in INT.  BG creates a new game by taking care of the ball.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Gabbert is a good QB.  PFF ranks him #10 and #7 as a runner.  He was third-team All-MAC last year, when he had a significantly better year.  He leads the MAC in passing efficiency.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are  #5 in scoring with 30.5 points per game but #1 in yards per play at 6.8.  BG's defense allows 15.4 points per game, which is tied for second with Miami.  The Falcons allow 4.6 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

Yes.  They are #3 at 5.3 yards per carry.  BG allows 3.7 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #5 in pass efficiency.  Gabbert is #7.  He has completed 57% of his passes, 15 TDs over 2INT and a stunning 15.3 yards per reception. Reggie Virgil is #1 in the MAC with 23 yards per reception.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 47% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  35% which is #9 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

They have only one empty trip in 25 attempts.  However, 11 of those were FGs.  Overall, the 4.96 is not great. Between the 3rd down and red zone, this is why their yards per play is way better than their scoring. BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip allowed. 

Do they protect the QB?

They have allowed sacks on 7.2% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7.8% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are tied for 2nd with BG at 15.4 PPG.  They lead the MAC allowing 4 yards per play.  BG scores 28. which is #6 and 5.7 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Yes. At 2.8 yards per carry, they are #1 in the MAC. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #7. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are 1st in passing efficiency defense.  They allow 56% completions, have 10 INT and 9.5 yards per completion. BG is #2 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They allow 41% which is #9.  BG converts 35%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 5.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.8 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

They do, they have sacks on 8.2% of passes. BG allows sacks on 8.6% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

While their kicker is a boomer, they are #7 in net punting. BG is #1.

Punt Return?

Middle of the pack

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 22 of 26 with a long of 51.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 26 (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

I'd say this is the biggest game played at the Doyt in terms of MAC play since the MAC title Big Ben game on December 4, 2023.  If you remove UT games and the Indiana G-O-G-O game, I think this is the biggest game we have had in a long time.  Reminds me a lot of the fat punter game.

Let's hope people come back to town.  I recall during Meyer I we had a great crowd for the day after Thanksgiving, but that was Toledo.  A big crowd would be great.  Will be cold.  Could snow.  

Just to be frank, Miami is the cause of a significant number of banana-peel moments in our history.  There was Hall-of-Famer Don Nehlen forgetting what down it was. A ridiculous rally in MBB that gave the Miami SID a heart attack. Fog Bowl.  The last grass game at the Doyt...think Charlie Brown FG.  We tried to make it go away by giving it a name---the Miami Whammy.  Still hasn't come too far.

In fact, until UT became a state school, Miami was our top rival.  They own the series with us.

For today, as mentioned, we are 2-point favorites.  You can see above that the game appears to be very evenly matched.  I think it will be low scoring and determined by one or two plays.

Like all football games, it will be decided up front. BG must run the ball and protect the QB.  Miami is really difficult to pass against, and we need to run the ball to open the offense up.  Same is true of them.  We have a defense that can compete with theirs.

I am really looking forward to the game.  We have waited a long time for this game.  Let's back the boys.,,,