Sunday, March 01, 2020


All, right here is how things stack up.  (Note, it is possible I've made some horrible error here, LMK if you see anything).

When NIU lost to WMU, BG clinched a top-two finish.  On Thursday, BG will play at noon vs the 8/9 winner if they finish first, or at 6:30 against the winner of the 7/10 game.  There's a big mush of teams in there...and a third game with the Rockets does remain a possibility.

Can you imagine?  Especially with the way the last one ended and they are playing well.  I would forsee a real barn-burner (cue Keith Jackson).

So, the battle for first continues.  It's a huge honor and you are assured an NIT bid, which is better than nothing but not what anyone wants.

If BG or Akron wins more games, they win.  The only way you get a tiebreaker is if they are even from here on in.  There are three ways it happens.  Both win both, both win one and both win none.

I don't think anyone can clinch it on Tuesday for that reason.  If they end up tied, BG wins most or all the tiebreakers...see below

Here are the records for BG and Akron against MAC opponents in descending order of the current standings.  I have highlighted the ones were there is or could be a difference.

NIU:  BG 1-0, AK 1-0
UB:    BG 1-0* AK 1-1
BS:  BG 2-0 AK 1-0
KS:  BG 0-1* AK  0-1*
UT:  BG 2-0 AK 0-1
OU:   BG 2-0 AK 1-0*
EMU:  BG 1-0 AK 2-0
CMU:  BG 0-1 AK 1-0
WMU:  BG 1-0, AK 2-0
MU  BG 1-1, AK 2-0

Both win out....

BG would win due to UB tiebreaker since we would be 2-0 against UB.  Under this scenario, Kent has lost twice, so they can't catch UB and both teams would be 1-1 against them anyway.

Both lose out

The UB and Kent tie breakers are even at that point.  It would come down to UT and OU...BG wins UT and would get the OU since AK would be 1-1 vs OU.

BG beats Kent and loses to UB, UA beats OU and loses to Kent

The UB and OU tiebreakers are even in this one, but BG would win Kent and UT...UT could pass Kent.

BG loses to Kent and beats UB, UA loses to OU and beats Kent

This is the most confusing one.  UA wins Kent tiebreaker but BG wins UB tiebreaker.  In this scenario, Kent is 9-9.  and UB 9-8 with one game undecided.  Kent and UB split their season series.  You also have a chance of a 3-way tie or more...too hard to tell.  You introduce UT into the equation, and that's good for us.

BG beats Kent and loses to UB, UA loses to OU and beats Kent

In this scenario, the UB and Kent tie breakers are even but BG wins OU and UT.

BG loses to Kent and beats UB, UA beats OU and loses to Kent

BG would win on UB tiebreaker.  Kent would be even and OU would go BG's way.


Rabbit said...

my head hurts...

Orange said...

Imagine how I feel

Paul said...

This one hurt...badly