Friday, January 09, 2015

Here Kitty Kitty Kitty

And here we go.  The 1-0 Falcons now take on the OU Bobcats...perennial power in the MAC, but with a new Coach and maybe a couple holes.  Getting the feeling there's going to be a big crowd at the Stroh and we're going to be jacked up.  Honestly, have not looked this forward to a Falcon game in many years.

OU is 5-7 this year.  Their best wins are over Depaul and UNC-Wilmington, the first on a neutral floor and the other at the Convo.  They also lost at home to St. Bonaventure and, in their MAC opener by 10 to NIU, of all people.  Astonishingly, they have played only 2 true road games, losing them both.

As we look at the matchup, we can see a team that is a little less effective than BG on offense and significantly poorer on defense.  On our floor, that would seem to give our boys the advantage.

As you can see above, BG's offense and OU's defense are relatively closely matched.  And that is pretty evident in the chart below.  What BG is doing on offense is pretty comparable to what OU is doing on defense in all areas.  If BG continues to shoot well, that's a new story, but basically this looks like a pretty even and predictable match up.

Flipping it around, we can see how the OU offense and BG defense compare.  It is a little hard to see how OU is only getting 1 point per possession...they are a pretty good shooting team...they are hurt by relatively high turnovers, poor offensive rebounding and worst-in-the-conference FT production, both getting to the line, where they are last, and making shots, were they are 10th.  This end is the big challenge for BG.  The Falcons need to defend the shot effectively and then get their offensive rebounding mojo back and they have a shot to keep OU in check.  

Individually, it is important to keep in mind that OU is third in the MAC at possessions per game, so that will juice their scoring a little bit.

OU's leading scorer is Javarez Willis, a Texas Tech transfer who played sparingly last year but is getting 33 minutes this year.  He's a 5'11" G who is scoring 15.7 PPG on 45% shooting, which is pretty good for a guard.  He's a 38% 3FG shooter on 83 attempts (a lot) and 86% at the line.  He leads the team with 3.3 assists per game.

OU does have a nice inside game, and will pressure BG to defend inside.  The Falcons only have one true paint defender, so Dickerson and Parker are going to have to stretch up a little bit or this is a matchup issue.

The second leading scorer is Maurice Ndour, who you will be familiar with from last year.  He is scoring 14.9 PPG to go with 8.4 RPG.  He's shooting 45%, which is not great for a big man.

Antonio Campbell, a 6'8" SO is scoring 10.4 PPG on 52% shooting and adding about 7 rebounds per game.  He has also fouled out 3 times, so the Falcons could help themselves by getting this young player into foul trouble.

Finally, 6'5" FR Ryan Taylor is scoring 10.4 PPG as well, on 49% shooting but only 27% from 3FG.

Again, this is an exciting day for us as fans.  This is a winnable game at home, and, dare we say it, one we expect to win?  Looking for a nice crowd and for the joint to rock a little bit...looking forward to seeing the Falcons keep the good times rolling.

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