Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Benchmark Report, Miami, 2011


So, here's the benchmark report for this week's game.  I explained what all this means, but a couple of points.

First, one reason I like this analysis is that it can be revealing.  For example, Miami had 2 INTs and six sacks and BG had 1 INT and 4 sacks, but Miami threw the ball twice as much as BG did.  For the 28 passes BG attempted (sack adjusted), 1 and 4 are too high, and are almost exactly the same as Miami's numbers on a proportion basis.

Second, this shows that even more than I thought on Sunday, BG's offense was opportunistic and made some key plays.  Our 3rd down conversion was at league average and BG was very good in the red zone, but in the yard/play measurements BG was below the MAC average, and that includes a 96 yard run on one play.  Clearly, BG has room to grow offensively.

Third, the Miami rush and adjustments by the BG defense are reflecting in only getting 8 yards a reception, which is well below what you might expect.  The Falcons were clearly going to high percentage short passes to keep the rush off Schilz.

On defense, BG had just as good a game and maybe better than I thought.  The yards per play was very low and BG was very strong on third down.  On a per play basis, BG's defense held Miami behind BG in every category.

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