So the Falcons head into the West, where things were fruitful last year. The Falcons open play against the only team that they lost to in the West, and that was the EMU Eagles. Last year, the game was at AA, so this year it will be at the Convo in Ypsi. What can we expect from this contest.
I actually believe these teams are pretty evenly matched. Eastern is 10-8 overall, but that comes against the 292nd ranked schedule in the country. 5 of the 9 wins are against teams with an RPI over 200 and one of them is against a non-D1 team. Three of them are against teams with RPIs north of 300. So, their decent overall record may have been somewhat cheaply bought. They
In the MAC they are 2-3, just as BG is. Their wins are against Toledo and Ball State.
So, looked at that way, it is unclear how good this team is...and it is possible they are not very good.
Now, in statistical terms the game is pretty evenly matched....for example, here is the EMU offense against the BG defense. Lines are all pretty close together, with the exception that they are better at getting to the line.
Now, flip the numbers, and we can see that we might expect to see Bowling Green shoot a little better against the EMU defense, and we ought to be able to get more than 2 offensive rebounds in this one.
Now, on one hand, you might say that EMU has generated these even stats against weaker opposition, and that would be true. At the same time, EMU is playing at home, where they are 7-1 and 2-0 this year. That to me would appear to equal out.
The last reason why I think that this will be a good game is that EMU has two really good players, senior Carlos Medlock and junior Brandon Bowry--who, in fact, is averaging a double-double. In fact, Bowry has a shot to be the MAC player of the year.
So, on their floor with a seemingly evenly matched team, and two veteran marquee players (which is two more than we have), I think this has the potential to be a good game.
Now, on the other hand, if the Falcons play their solid defense, clamp down on the outside shooting and get some points inside, there is no reason that they can't beat the Eagles. But, I think this will be a competitive game.