NIU Preview for MBB

There's a long bus ride, and it's the last one for BG MBB to DeKalb--at least in MAC play.  Can you imagine driving out there for a non-conference game?

Or, maybe NIU will be back.  It's happened before.

NIU has not made the NCAA Tournament since 1996, and its last two appearances were out of other conferences.  They won an early MAC title in 1982 but have not won the MAC since.

In the 28 seasons since they returned to the MAC, they have had a winning season in MAC play three times. Their current coach is Rashon Burno, who is a Hurley guy. He's 39-85 in DeKalb.

This year, they are overachieving.  They were picked last by Blue Ribbon and the MAC pre-season poll.  They are tied for 9th and in the tournament hunt.  In the MAC, they beat CMU, WMU, and UMass, all at home.

The series with BG has been no contest.  The Falcons have won 9 out of 10, the last 3 overall and the last 5 in DeKalb.

MAC Games only.

The Huskies are interesting.  They are the number 2 team in the MAC in defensive efficiency.  They are #4 in defending the shot, #5 in forcing turnovers, and #5 in defensive rebounding.  They are #3 defending the 3FG and #8 defending the 2FG.  Their major weakness on defense is that they are #11 in allowing free throws.  

That's not great news for a Falcon team coming off one of the worst offensive games in recent memory. For the year, BG is #6 in the MAC in offensive efficiency, but they are also wildly inconsistent.  An average D completely flummoxed them in Jonesboro, and we are going to have to battle for a night-and-day recovery, or the last ride home from DeKalb could feel like forever.

NIU is good enough on defense to compete.  If only they could score.  They are last in the MAC in offensive efficiency. They score 0.98 points per possession, and the next-worst team is BSU at 1.02. 

They try the most 3FGs in the MAC.  They are last in making them.  They are #9 in 2FG.

They are #12 overall in shooting and #13 in turnovers.  That's a toxic combo.  It isn't all a disaster; they are #3 in offensive rebounds and #5 at getting to the line, though they make only 68%.

BG has been playing decent defense since the Buffalo debacle. But they were smoked on the defensive boards by A-State, which really makes it tough to get the speed game going.  BG is #2 on the defensive boards for the year and needs to get back to it. (A-State was really tall, and NIU is #314 in average height). 

BG has fallen to #7 in forcing turnovers, so they might not take as much advantage there as they'd like. 

Their leading scorer is Makhai Valentine with 14.6, shooting 48% and 35%.  He makes 83% from the line, #5 in the MAC. He's 6'3" from Missouri State.

Dylan Ducommun is their 2nd leading scorer.  He's a FR from Switzerland, and he's 6'4."  Scoring 13.3 PPG, making a rough 43% and 32%.

Taj Walters is the 3rd leading scorer at 11.6 PPG.  He's a 6'5" FR from the Bronx. He's highly efficient at 56% and 42% shooting and is #15 in the MAC in EFG. He also leads the team with 7.2 RPG. 

Gianni Cobb leads the team with 3.8 APG. 

They run a very tight 7-man rotation. They play most FR and SO, and they are the 15th youngest team in D1 ball.  In the old days, you'd think they might be on the upswing, but most of those guys won't play in a MWC game, if history is a guide.

BG needs a win here.  They are 4.5-point favorites.  We will see if they are ready to rebound or ready to pack it in.