BG MBB Needs Win over WMU

Down to 2 weeks and 3 games to play. BG sits in 6th place, still in decent shape to get to Cleveland, and while anything can happen, BG is 0-5 against the three teams you'd need to beat to win that thing, and you'd need to go 3-0 in 3 days on a neutral floor.

The next one is WMU.  This is a should-win and pretty much a must-win. WMU is tied for last with Ball State.  Their KenPom is 286, and a loss here would be BG's worst loss of the season.  They are 9-18/7-18/3-11. Their MAC wins are over EMU twice and CMU.  

BG beat them by 18 earlier this year in Kzoo. Bowling Green had an average offensive night, but held WMU to .81 PPP, 43% and 23% shooting, 23% turnovers, and even held the board-crashing Broncos to 28% on the offensive boards.

The first game kind of flipped things around, because you would have expected BG to exploit WMU's putrid defense... instead, BG's defense dominated an average MAC offense.

WMU is last in the MAC in defensive efficiency.  They are 11th in defending the shot, 12th in forcing turnovers, and 11th in their defensive boards. They are #12 against the 2FG and #9 against the 3FG.

They are 7th on offense. They are 9th in 3FG attempted and 12th in 2FG%.  They are #7 on 3FGs and #10 in overall shooting.

They are #3 at taking care of the ball and #3 on the offensive boards.  They don't generate FTs and make only 72% of their shots at the line.

BG should be able to excel at both ends against these guys.  I suspect WMU will pack it in on us...as teams usually do in MAC play, so we are going to make some jumpers.  It can be hit or miss for us, as you know.

Justice Williams was their only player in double figure scorer in the first game.  He's the guy who started at LSU and ended up at WMU, but was once a big-time player.  He didn't begin playing until mid-season due to eligibility concerns.  He started fast and has slowed down, now scoring 12 PPG for his last 5 MAC games. He is the #15 3FG shooting in the MAC and #2 at the line,

Jayden Brewer scores 11 PPG. He shoots 48% and 26% and leads the team with 5.8 RPG.  He is #5 at drawing fouls but only makes 62% from the line. He also blocks a shot a game.

Jalen Griffith is their other double figure scorer.  He didn't play last time out, no idea what is going on. What's weird is he also didn't play in the first matchup with BG. 

This is one BG needs to close out.  They finish with UMass and then @EMU. Two wins, and they are in for sure... maybe one.