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The Series:

BG is 1-1 with Liberty.

The first game was before Liberty was in FBS.  BG won 62-3 under Brandon.

Liberty beat BG in 2023, 34-24 on their way to an undefeated season.  BG had 5 INT, yet rallied from 24-0 to be in the game.  Looking back, it was disappointing in that if we had played well, we might have had a shot.

Before 2000, Liberty was 1-8 vs. MAC teams.  They are 6-3 since then.  In 2023, they beat BG and UB.

Expectations

Liberty was picked to win C-USA in their conference poll, tied with WKU.  (Actually, these are not rankings, just goofy confidence rankings.)  Phil Steele has them first.

Phil Steele had the following players on the pre-season list:

1st team

• Aaron Fenimore, C
• Jack Tucker, OT
• Bryce Dixon, DT
• CJ Bazille, DE (Coach said he was doubtful on Monday)
• Joseph Carter, LB
• Brylan Green, S (2nd team PR)

2nd team

• Harrison Hayes, OG
• Ryan Manis , LS

This season

Beat Maine 28-7 and lost to Jacksonville State 34-24.  Jax State was picked #7 in CUSA and the game was in Jacksonville.

I listened to their coach's presser.  He sounded like our guys usually do after a loss.  They had two turnovers (to zero for Jax State) and poor kicking.  Down 24-10 entering the 4th, they furiously rallied to make it a game.

Offense

This is a good team.  They put up 8.1 yards per play and 534 yards last week.

From Phil Steele, here are their position group rankings in CUSA.

• QB: 3
• RB:  2
• REC: 3
• OL: 1

They ran the ball 37 times last week, and averaged 5.4 yards per run.

Evan Dicken was 13-114 and Caden Williams was 8 for 39.

They were very effective in the air, going 19 of 29, 335 yards and 2 TDs over 1 INT.  They were also sacked 4 times.

Those completions went to a bunch of guys.  No one had more than 4.  They had passes of 62 and 72 yards.

Defense

The defense was not as effective.  They gave up 6.3 per play.  As you can see, expectations were high for them.

• DL: 2
• LB: 1
• DB: 1

Jax State ran the ball 50 times and passed only 12.  Even with that volume, they had 6.8 yards per rush, which is obviously a lot.

Remember, they were down a top lineman who is expected to be out Saturday.

You have to think BG will see if a similair attack will work for them.

Special Teams

Punting was 39 yards a kick, which is pretty good.

They missed a 27 yards FG.

The return game was pretty quiet.

Conclusion

Liberty is a 4.5-point favorite.

This would be a big win for BG.  McMillan will be back.  We will have to play well in all parts of the game and take care of the ball, which we have done to date.