Monday, February 25, 2019

Redhawk Redux

So BG gets a re-match against the Miami Redhawks.  This is the first time this year that BG is playing a team they lost to earlier.  And, it will be the only time.

BG had a poor game in Millett the first time around.  Miami led by 9 or more for the last 12 minutes of the game.  BG played good defense but played awful offense.  They only shot 30% on 2FGs, turned the ball over, didn't get offensive boards and didn't get to the line.  It was BG's worst offensive game of the season at the time and it still is.

So, let's look at how things have shaped up since that game.  Miami is 6-8 in MAC play.  They started 0-4, won their next three and seemed to be getting hot but then they are 3-4 since then.  They have won 3 of the last 5 at the Stroh, even while they struggled as much as we have.

So, here's how it shapes up.  You can see the key element.  First, if BG defends the way they did Friday night in Athens, they won't beat anyone.  Moving on though, BG is #4 in defense and Miami is #8 in offense, and those work out to .99 points per possession both ways.  The test will be on the other end.  BG remains a very effective offensive team and Miami's defense is 1.01, which is right about MAC average.  (The MAC is ranked 25th out of 32 conferences in offensive efficiency).

Looking at Miami on offense, they are just below average.  If BG plays the defense we are used to, they should be able to keep the Redhawks off the board.  They are 8th in the MAC in shooting, 9th in turnovers and 10th in offensive rebounding.  Their strongest area is getting to the FT line, which they lead the MAC in....they are 6th in FT shooting. 

The shoot a lot of 3s...they are 2nd in the MAC in the percentage of shots from 3FG.  But, they only make 33% of them--just below the MAC average--and 8th in 2FG%.

Flipping it around, Miami is decent defending the shot, at #6 in the conference.  They don't force turnovers, but they are very good on the defensive boards (1st in the MAC) and give up an average number of FT attempts.  They are OK defending the 3FG....#7 in the MAC, but they are 3rd in defending the 2FG.  This is a decent defensive team and BG will need to make shots to win, which hopefully will spin off good defense on the other end.

Miami is led by Nike Sabandie, who is scoring an inefficient 14.5 PPG on 37% and 34% shooting.  Bam Bowman is their other double-figure scorer at 10.4 on 43% and 35% shooting---again, not great.  He leads the team with 5.9 rebounds.

Miami plays a very deep rotation.  No player averages 30 minutes a game, which brings their overall numbers down.  Darrien Ringo is scoring 9.3 PPG, but leads the MAC in Assist rate and steals%, but plays only 28 minutes.  He has a lot of turnovers.  Dalonte Brown also scores 9 a game with 5 rebounds and Jalen Adaway gets 5.8 RPG.

So, BG gets the chance to get back on the right side of the ledger and I have a pretty good feeling that it will happen.  This is a game BG should be able to win if they play well, as they typically have at the Stroh.  Let's see if it happens.

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