CMU Preview....New Season

So, a new season starts today.  Everyone starts with the same record, in a manner of speaking.  Anyway, BG rides a five-game losing streak into the MAC tourney and a road game at CMU that never should have happened.

BG needs a road win to make it to Cleveland.  BG played CMU way early in the season at the Stroh.  CMU was off to a dreadful start, 1-4 in MAC play, and shot the lights out in BG.  They outscored the Falcons 27-9 in the last 10 minutes to win by 9.  BG made 18 turnovers.  When you look back at the year, in fact, this is one of the more disappointing losses.  You just needed to get that win.

CMU ended up starting 2-6 in MAC play.  From there they improved, eventually going 5-5 on the homestretch to play their way to home court.

CMU is the 3rd best offensive team in the MAC.  BG is the 7th best defensive team.  On that front, you expect things to be pretty evenly matched.  The key matchup is on the other end, as it often is.  BG is the worse offensive team in the MAC.  CMU is #9 on defense.  So that's where something had to give.  Yes, part of that is BG getting some stops and into transition, but as noted in the last game write-up, BG has not been making 3FGs over the past 5 games and they'll need that to clean up to have a shot. 

So, the interesting thing is that CMU is #3 in offense but they aren't a great shooting team. In fact, they are #9 in shooting.  Their key is shooting the 3.  They try the second-high proportion of 3s in the MAC and they are 5th in making them.  They protect the ball well, they lead the MAC in offensive rebounding and they are 8th in getting to the line.  They are the best FT shooting team in the MAC and the 2nd best in the country.  They make 81%.

So, flipping things around, we see the sad story that BG is the worst shooting team in the MAC.  BG is 11th from 3FG and 12th from 2FG.  CMU is relatively easy to shoot against, but they force turnovers well.  They are not great on the offensive boards.  They are 8th at allowing FTs.

On the plus side, CMU has a losing record at home at 3-5, 4-5 if you give them the game that moved due to the shooting incident.

CMU has two players who scored 15 a game.  One is Shawn Roundtree, who is scoring 15 on 36% and 32% shooting, which is a struggle.  He makes 84% of their FTs.  Cecil Williams is also scoring 15, shooting 45% and 37%, which is pretty good.  He also averages 5.8 RPG.  Kevin McKay might be one of the best 6th men in the MAC, scoring over 13 PPG on 56% shooting, plus 87% at the line and 7 PRG. 

David DiLeo is averaging 10 PPG on an inefficient 36% and 32%.  And then there's Luke Meyer, who always seems to do well against BG, is scoring 10 PPG on 53% and 45% shooting and has only missed 1 FT in conference play.  He also gets 4.5 RPG.

This is a winnable game for BG, if they play well, but if they play as they have been over the past few weeks than they are heading into the off-season on a six-game losing streak.