For all the unexpected nature of this year's season, this is one that went just as it was supposed to. BG was playing Miami, the worst team in the MAC and it isn't close. BG isn't great, but coming off the win over Akron you'd hate to lose this one, no matter where it was played.
BG is tied for the last home berth.
If BG wins both of their remaining games, they need NIU to lose one of their last 2, which I think is likely. There might be some other scenarios with 3-4 way ties from one of the 9-7 teams, but with 9 wins I think BG would be hard pressed not to get the home game.
Now, if BG only wins one of the games, then they need NIU to lose both of their games, which could happen. If that happened, BG would be at home, probably against NIU. If UT lost out and tied BG and NIU and 8-10, NIU, BG would still be 9th.
So, BG needs help. Their last 2 games are tough. Kent is playing really well, just watched them rally to beat OU and Buffalo is playing well, too. Two wins would be huge, but is going to be tough, and one win is not going to be a picnic. But that's what is ahead of us.