FalconBlog--Triumphs and Trials in the BGSU Falcon Nation

Lions Year in Review

Well, here it is. The team was 6-10. If you want an executive summary, this team could make the playoffs with a better offense. Defense wasn't too bad. Let's watch.

OFFENSE

The fact base:

Exhibit 1: Observe, if you will, the Lion's rankings in the following categories.

Plays (28th)
Yards Per game (24th)
Scoring (24th)
Yards per play (24th)
First Downs (29th) (Are you noticing a trend, here?)
3rd Downs (29th)
Penalties (27th)
TOP (30th)
Fumbles lost (T-2nd)
Rushes per game (19th)
Average Rush (9th) (file this)
Rushes over 20 yards (5th)
Pass % 26th
Pass Yards per game (22nd)
Pass Tds (23rd)
Interceptions (9th)
Sacks (T-11)
Yards/Catch (24th)
Turnover Differential +4 (16th)
Giveaways (4th)
Play Mix (45% run, as opposed to 47% in NFL)
Points per red zone trip (25th, 4.4 vs. 4.7 in NFL).

Exhibit 2: The Quarterback

Much malinged Joey. Here are some stat trends for him...

QB Rating (2002-59.9, 2003-63.9, 2004-77.5) A gradual upward trend.

Passing %: (2002-50.1, 2003-55.8, 2004-56) A flattening

Interceptions, down to 12 from 22 the year before.

Completions over 20 yards, up to 43 from 24 a year ago---can you say Roy?

However, Joey's major failing...third down passing. Here are his QB ratings on specific downs.

1st 78.9
2nd 87
3rd 68.3

And in the second half, he rated 68.6.

THE STORYLINE

The offense was atrocious. Absolutely pitiful, near the bottom in every key category. The only reason the scoring stats weren't as bad as the rest is at least the team held its turnovers down.

The Lions simply have to get more plays, and there's a key way to do that. They have to improve on 3rd down, first and foremost. It'll help the D, as you will see, and it will help gain yards and in the redzone.

But how, you might ask, do we need more plays when we were so low in all the categories? Isn't that like losing money on every transaction and making it up on volume?

Well, here's the other thing we need. We have to run the ball more. We were ninth in yards per carry, and the one legitimate force we uncovered is Kevin Jones. We have to at least mix run and pass evenly, and maybe tilt to running 52% or so. That will help to move the chains and control the ball.

Then, combine a steadily improving Harrington with CRog back in the fold supported by a big running game, and the offense has the potential to be a middle of the pack attack, which could be good enough. We need to restructure Harrington and Hakim, and find a Guard to replace David Loverne, who lost his starting job late in the season.

DEFENSE


The Facts

NFL Rankings

Yards/Game (22nd)
Yards/Play (11th) (file this anamoly for a minute(
Scoring (19th)
Third Downs (27th)
TOP (30th)
Fumbles recover (11th)
Passing Yards/game (20th)
INT (23rd)
Sacks (15th)
Rushing per play (9th)
Rushing per game (15th)
First Downs (11th)
Yards/Carry (9th)
Scoring (19th)
Red Zone (Tied 9th)
Turnovers caused (22nd)

STORYBOARD

I think anyone will have to concede that these numbers are better than people might have suspected. The defense, on a play for play basis, was pretty good. Why weren't they better...because the other team ran so many plays. Why? Partly because the offense couldn't stay on the field. No doubt, these numbers can go up, against the pass, and especially on 3rd down, but this is the building block of a winning team.

You add Boss Bailey back, get a safety (or Holt, please, what is the problem?), and you got a pretty strong and pretty deep defensive corps.

Then, add in the offense running the ball more, and showing some improvement, and keeping the ball longer and running more plays on their own, and more talent on our part, and I think this D is good enough to get you to the playoffs.

The defense also needs to create more turnovers, but essentially, Dick Jauron did a good job with this unit, and the can take us to the playoffs if they stay healthy.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The facts:

Punting Gross: 24th
Punting Net: 27th
Punt Returns: 6th
KO returns: 5th
FG Accuracy: T6th
KO Returns against: 4th
Punt Returns Against: 24th

STORYLINE:

Really, save a snap against the Vikings, these were pretty good. Drummond is a pro bowler and a difference maker who is dangerous in every game, and back healthy he is a weapon. And Jason Hansen is a good kicker and very effective. And, I guess we were happy with our punt game--we re-signed Nick Harris, the punter. Special teams were solid and not keeping this team from winning...mixed with the other stuff, it helps us compete.

BOTTOM LINE:

IF this team follows these directions, I think they can make the playoffs next season. They could be a 9-7 team, assuming they stay healthy. Once you are in the playoffs, who knows? The building blocks are there...

On the other hand, stay tuned for my next story coming soon---Can Mooch coach?