BG Doesn't Guard. Bloodbath Scheduled.

Most of the time, I am glad I never really played sports.  In business, when we had a bad day, we might be subjected to questions about our value or (usually) empty threats, and we would spend a day wondering about our future and how we managed to take so many wrong turns.

Todd Simon has promised that practice tomorrow will be a "bloodbath." 

"They’re going to strap up. This is not what we’re about."

Woof.  I'm sure they would have rather skipped the day off and gotten it over with.

The whole thing has a positively Dakichian ring to it, except progress would have been at midnight after the game.

The cause of the bloodbath was BG's defensive performance against UB Tuesday night.  This was a winnable game.  BG has been working hard on defense and has shown some improvement.  Last night was the opposite of that...and therefore the bloodbath.

More Simon:  "The guys that are on the bus to play defense are going to move forward. The guys that are not will still have a seat, but it’s going to be more in different roles."

I'm not exactly sure how that is going to work, given that we only have eight guys or so who are playable.  Maybe we'll play four guys like in Hoosiers.

It was a bad performance in a game we really could have used. 

BG gave up 1.33 points per possession, their second-worst of the season. They allowed 69% EFG, the worst this year.  BG hasn't allowed 70% since 2017.  BG allowed 58% on 2FG...not great, but 54% on 3FG, the worst this season.  Note the similarity between those two numbers. You have to go back two years before you see a team making 3FGs against BG like that.

BG had 1.17 points per possession on offense, which was actually pretty good. BG is 7-2 in D1 games when scoring 1.15 or more.  We scored enough to win.  We did not guard at all.

If this works, I wouldn't want to be CMU on Saturday.  If it doesn't work, I guess it's best to find out now.

Javonte Campbell is having an incredible season.  He just can't be stopped.  He scored 31 on 11 of 17 and 2 of 3 shooting.  Added 7 assists over 2 turnovers. He was 3 of 6 at the line, where he is normally good.

The problem is, no one else got into double figures. Everyone else on the team appears to be slumping, with the exception of Glover, who was efficient with his opportunities.

Last case in point.  BG did get some stops in the second half...7 of 8 possessions that resulted in a 13-2 run and a BG lead. UB responded with a 4-point play, a stop, a 3FG, a stop, and a 2FG, and the lead was back to 8.

Our next 3 games are Central, NIU and Ball State.  This is no time for a slump.  On to CMU.

Football Update

It's game day for MBB, so a good time to peek in on the football team.  The portal deadline is closing, and signing day is next week.  As always, hat tip to @thetalontribune for tracking all this and keeping it in a public place.  It's there all the time.

The "official" roster was put on the BG website.  Not sure what triggered that since there are still portals open and the like, but it did contain some very good news.

JoJo Johnson and Myles Bradley, who had both been in the portal, have decided to return to the team.

This is big for our defense. Johnson was a key D-back for us, leading the MAC in passes defended. He was recruited at Notre Dame and played at Indiana.  And Bradley had 5 sacks and forced three fumbles.

There's four other DBs in the portal, Sanders Ellis at LB, and two (in particular) other additions we will discuss in a minute.  The defense is looking to be in a workable position.

The roster update included 2 new transfers, and since then, another DL has announced his commitment.

John Baker IV, EDGE

He went to Cass Tech in Detroit, riding a proven pipeline to UT, where he redshirted before leaving with the coaching change.  That's a legit D1 factory.  Listed as a three-star recruit by 247Sports and ESPN...No. 25 recruit by ESPN in the state of Michigan...247Sports lists him as the No. 30 player in the state...Two-time Detroit Free Press All-City selection, all-state in his senior year...As a senior, had 55 tackles, 21 tackles for loss, and 18 sacks, leading all edge rushers in Michigan the last two seasons in sacks and tackles for loss....He won three conference titles and the 2024 state championship.

Jonathan Goins, LB

He went to Pine Bluff and then to Alabama A&M, each for one year.  He appears to have been a good player in high school, but generated no numbers for either collegiate team.

Selah Brown, DL

This is another one of these huge prospects who has yet to click in college.  He is a transfer from Louisville.  Has played in 7 games over 2 years. Before that, he was a four-star prospect … listed as the No. 4 player in the state by the ON3 Consensus rankings … ranked as the No. 78 defensive lineman and the No. 6 athlete in Kentucky by ON3 … rated the No. 2 player in the state of Kentucky and the No. 1 defensive end in the state …four-star prospect by 247Sports …named Class 6A Player of the Year by Kentucky Football Coaches Association … finished with 31 tackles and 3.0 tackles for loss as a senior  Had offers from Illinois, Kentucky, Boston College, Northwestern, Missouri, Tennessee, Stanford, Purdue, UCF, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia.

As for the players leaving BG, most have found a home. There were 35, plus one guy who dropped off in the roster update. 18 are playing in the FBS, 14 in P4 and 4 in G5.  10 are in FCS. 2 are in D2. 5 more remain in the portal or unkown.  Bam Booker retired.

Interesting that there were few lateral moves.  People either moved up for money or exposure, or down for playing time, which they could use to move up again.

Drew Pyne is not on the roster.  9 of the portal players were on defense, 6 on offense, and only one on the OL to date.

BG MBB Needs a Bounceback Win

Key turnaround here for the BG Falcons MBB team.  BG played well enough to win Saturday at Savage, but took a gut punch when a one-eyed true FR drained a trey to steal the game.

They are back at home...and they need to rebound quickly.  Their next four MAC games are winnable, and if they can get to 8-4, they are almost sure to get to Cleveland.

The opponent is one of the MAC's more interesting teams.  UB struggled when Nate Oats left, but three years ago hired George Halcovage from Villanova.  He was 11-49 for his first two seasons as he tried to work an old-school rebuild.

They were picked 11th by the MAC and 9th by Blue Ribbon.  The magazine appeared to be onto something, as UB did start out in surprising fashion. Playing the #348 non-conference schedule, they were 10-2/8-2 hitting MAC play. They also had a soft start to MAC play, winning @WMU, @NIU, and BSU to open 3-0.

At that point, they transitioned to the murderer's row of their schedule, losing @OU, KSU, @MU, UA, and UMass.  They took Miami to OT--in fact, MU needed buzzer beaters at the half and in OT to beat the Bulls, and that was at Millet.

They are now 3-5 in MAC play and on a five-game losing streak.  In fact, their next two games after this are OU and MU, both in Buffalo.

Their KenPom started at 329 and is now 189, probably one of the biggest increases in the country.

BG has won six of the last 10 against the Bulls, including the last 3 overall and the last 2 at the Stroh. If UB does win against BG (KenPom 113), it would be their second-biggest win of the year.  They beat DePaul (102).

They play at 66 possessions, which is relatively slow.

Their success in MAC play has mostly been driven by their offense. They have the number 4 offense in the MAC. They shot 45% from 3FG, also #4, and they make 38%, which is #2.  They are #4 from 2FG.  They also take good care of the ball, #4 in limiting turnovers. 

That's a tough combo to beat.  They don't offensive rebound at all, and they don't draw fouls, and they make 73% at the line, which is #8.

BG's put together two strong defensive games in a row, and they'll need another one.  It's another good test.  If BG can string those together, the team will be much less inconsistent, which has been a problem. Statistically, BG is #7 in defense, but that is moving up.  They need to force turnovers, which they did not do against the Rockets.

Defensively, UB is not good.  They are #10 in defense and last in defending the overall shot and the 2FG.  And #10 defending the 3FG.  They are #6 in forcing turnovers and don't foul much — as we saw with Toledo.  Other than shooting, their other weakness is OREB, in which they are #9, and BG is #6.

I suspect Coach will have the turnover issues cleaned up, and we'll have to see if BG can make shots at home like they did in the last home game against EMU.

UB has two guys who can really score the ball. (Stats below MAC games only).

Daniel Freitag is the #2 scorer in the conference.  (Campbell is #1).  In HS, he was the #11 PG in the nation and the #104 overall player according to 247. He went to Wisconsin, where he played in 14 games before transferring to UB.  He's scoring 21.6 PPG.  He's not super efficient (48%/33%/75%) and is #2 in the MAC in % of shots taken. He also adds 5.3 APG (#5 in MAC) and #1 in A/T ratio.

Ryan Sabol is scoring 20.1 per game, which is #5 in the MAC.  He plays 94% of their minutes.  He is more efficient than Freitag, shooting 51%/41%/87%. He adds 3.9 APG, which is #10 in the MAC. He came to UB right out of HS.

Angelo Brizzi scores 11.9 PPG. He's efficient at 58%/39%/75% and leads them with 12 steals. He is an example of even this coach having to compromise... he's played at Longwood, Davidson, and Villanova.

Tim Oboh is 6'11" and from England.  He averages 5 RPG and has blocked 10 shots.  Noah Batchelor is 6'8" and transferred from Maryland two years ago. He averages 5.1 RPG and led the team in rebounding last year.

BG plays a short rotation at 28.3 bench minutes.  UB uses 25.7%.

BG is a 7.5-point favorite.  From Vegas's lips to God's ears.  

Heartbreaker for BG MBB at Savage

 Ooof.  BG and UT played an All-time classic last night at Savage.  This year, it was UT's turn to rip our hearts out of our chests... a highly entertaining basketball game that BG should have won, doing a lot right but not enough to beat UT in that arena.

It was a close game the whole way.  Neither team led by more than 7 points at anytime.  With 11 minutes left, the Rockets were up 6.  Over the next four minutes, BG went on a 17-4 run to take a 7-point lead. 

BG still led by 7 with 4:32 left.  Things are starting to feel good, but you remember where we are and who we are playing.

In fact, BG was up 7 WITH THE BALL.  But they turned it over,  UT turned it over, BG had a breakaway layup, which they missed. UT hit a 3FG and then BG turned it over again (+4).  BG got a stop and Campbell was fouled where he split the pair.  BG up 5 with 2:26 to play.

So, in two minutes, BG scored 1 point, should have had at least 3, and made two other turnovers that could have put the game away.

Even so, with 2:26 left, BG was up 5.

That was as good as it would look.  The teams traded stops, as the offense missed another opportunity to extend the lead.  Craig hit a 3FG, and it was a 2-point lead with 1:27 to play.

BG ran clock, but turned the ball over with :54 to play.  BG's defense delivered again, and BG had the ball with :43 to play.  They ran the clock down, and Campbell took a wild shot and missed everything. BG got the board and called time out, but there was only :02 left on the shot clock.

That shot hits the rim, we probably win.  Or the FT...or the breakaway layup.  But it didn't.  BG inbounded to Wol, who missed.

Down comes UT, down a bucket.  They don't take time...and BG loses their leading scorer, Blyden, in the wash.  As he winds up to shoot, wide open, he is 1-7 from 3FG for the night, and his eye looks like he was in the Golden Gloves.  And he drains it.  Because...rivalry magic.

Down 1, Shackelford for a 3FG off, but missed, and the Rockets had yanked BG's heart out.  Kowalcyk said after the game that UT did everything to keep Campbell from beating them on that possession, including kind words for Campbell.

BG did not execute down the stretch and didn't close out a game they should have won.

BG's defense was excellent.  They held UT to 1.08 points per possession. BG was focused on defending the shot, and held UT to 46% from 2FG and 32% from 3FG. That's a 47% EFG.  BG's other strength on defense has been turnovers, but UT took great care of the ball, with 11.3% turnover rate, BG's 2nd worst of the season.

The problem was that BG had 16 turnovers, 9 more than UT.  That was the 3rd worst of the season.  So even though BG outshot UT, the Rockets prevailed because they took 11 more shots.  They were also +3 at the line.  Despite what it felt like, BG actually had an edge in offensive rebounds because it missed fewer shots.

Of BG's 16 turnovers, 4 came in the last 4:03

Javonte Crawford is a stud.  He carried the club again, scoring 29 on 10 of 15 and 2 of 5 shooting. He was 3 of 4 at the line, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists...and evidence they were pressing him, he had 7 turnovers. Towns had 11 on 4 of 5 and 1 of 2 shooting, 7 rebounds, and 4 turnovers. Glover had 9 points and 7 rebounds in 23 minutes after a dumb first-half technical foul gave him a second foul.

They have to bounce back.  Can't lose this one twice.  A slumping UB Bull team comes in on Tuesday. 

Rivalry Preview, MBB. BG and UT.

OK, rivalry game #1, as BG and the Rockets clash at Savage...

This is not the typical Rocket team.  They were picked by #5 by Blue Ribbon and #6 by the MAC poll. While still a quality program, they are not in the top tier of MAC teams...of course, neither is BG. They started the year ranked 167 on KenPom, and they are at 160 now. They are 10-9/8-9, but they played the #123 non-conference schedule.

BG and UT are tied at 4-3 in the MAC standings. They have beaten WMU, @NIU, @CMU, and OU...and lost to Miami, @KSU, and @UMass--their last time out. 

UT has won 7 out of the last 10 meetings.  The teams have split both of the last two years, last year with the backwards split, with each team winning on the road.

The Rockets are 2.5-point favorites.

The teams are relatively similar in profile.  UT is #4 in offense and #8 in defense.  BG is #6 in offense and #7 in defense.  It will be a good test for BG's defense that was unveiling in Kzoo Tuesday.  This is a much different challenge.

UT is 2FG focused team, taking the lowest % of 3FG in the MAC.  They aren't bad, they are #5 at 3FG shooting and #8 at 2FG shooting.  All of which leaves them #7 in overall shooting.

It is the weakest part of their attack.  They are #2 in taking care of the ball, #3 on the offensive boards and #4 at getting to the line.  BG's defense is designed to key the offense, with turnovers and defensive rebounds, so that will be an interesting battle to watch.

Their defense is first and foremost built on not fouling.  They are #1 in the MAC at keeping their opponents off the line.  BG is #1 getting to the line.  So that should be interesting.  They are the 12th 3FG defending team in the MAC and 12th on the defensive boards.  So, same as ever, BG will need to make shots to keep up in this one.

Their leading scorer is the leader for FR of the year, Leroy Blyden.  He's scoring 19 PPG (MAC games only).  He's efficient at 50%, 41% and 89% at the line.

Sonny Wilson, 3rd team All-MAC last year, is scoring 17.6 PPG, making 49% and 44%. He's #5 in the MAC with 5.4 APG.

Sean Craig is scoring 12 PPG and adding 8.4 RPG, which is #4 in the MAC.  He's 6'7" from Sylvania Northview who transferred from IU-Indy.

Kyler Vanderjagt also scores 12 PPG on 53% and 44% shooting. He transferred from CMU.

So there we go.  UT is a very solid team, if not as good as we are used to seeing.  This is a good test for BG....remember the end of the last one, where Javonte Campbell silenced the Savagians with a last-second layup.

BG MBB Defends its Way to Big Road Win

BG took care of its business last night in Kzoo, cruising to a 72-54 victory.  We had Kent and Akron and lost back-to-back, but we had EMU and WMU and won back-to-back.

Here's what Coach said after the game...

"Our complete emphasis is to get back [to defense]. Defense travels. We don't want to be a team that just tries to outscore people. Our emphasis has been, for a few days here, we're going to get back to guarding and that's what practice has been focused on. When you hold a team to 33-percent on their home court, 23-percent from three and 15 turnovers, that's a heck of an outing on the defensive end."

Interesting.  BG played better defense in the non-conference schedule.  It got worse, partly because Miami, Akron and Kent are highly effective on offense.  As noted in the preview, WMU was not a bad offensive team, but BG shut them down with a stifling defense that delivered victory on an average offensive night.

BG came out strong this time, taking a 10-point lead with 11 left to play.  WMU carried the play for a few minutes, cutting the lead to 1 with 4 to play.  BG closed the way winning teams do, going 8-0 for the next 4 minutes to lead by 9 at the half.

BG continued the momentum into the second half, going on an 8-2 run to get the lead to 15 points with 16 left to play. For the last 17:44, the Falcons held the Broncos from making any kind of serious run, with the lead staying over 10 for that whole time.  It got as high as 24.

BG held WMU to .81 points per possession.  That's the 3rd lowest against a D1 opponent this year.  They have not lost a game with that type of defensive performance since 2016 against Miami.

Their EFG was 39%, also BG's 3rd best of the season. That's 43% and 23% shooting.  And BG didn't foul, important given the number of players they used.  And BG kept them off the offensive boards--a big source of their offense.

BG had 1.08 points per possession, which is a little below the national average. BG shot 53% and 25%, taking 36% from 3FG.  However, they had only 8 turnovers and went 19-for-27 at the line, +9 over WMU.

The other interesting point is that BG ran a very short rotation.  Justin Thomas, DNP. BG ran a 6-man rotation for the vast majority of the game--Glover, Campbell, Ruffin, Towns, Wol, and Shackelford. The first thing is, when you play like that, you absolutely cannot foul.  UT has played those kinds of rotations, and they don't foul.  It is a high-risk endeavor.

Also, you are going to see some big individual numbers.  Not to be a spoil-sport, but when guys are playing these kinds of minutes, they are going to pile up some numbers.

Javonte Campbell and Sam Towns carried the team on offense. Campbell had 20 points...5 of 13 and 2 of 3 shooting (yes, he made 2 3FGS), 4-5 at the line, 9 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 block, 5 steals, and only 1 turnover.  If that works for you.

Towns had 21 on 6 of 9 and 0 of 2 shooting.  He was 9 of 12 at the line. Nine rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, and 0 turnovers.

Shackelford had a highly efficient 13, with 1 of 1 from 2, 2 of 4 from 3FG, and 5 of 6 at the line.

How about Troy Glover?  Increasingly, he's a problem.  Nine points, 4 of 6 shooting, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 blocks, and 3 steals with 1 turnover.  The big worry here is that he's a 35% FT shooter and teams are going to start fouling him late.

Wol and Ruffin had off nights, but other guys jumped in.

Justice Williams had 18 and was the only player in double figures for WMU.  But he had to earn it, going 3-for-5 and 2-for-9.  The Broncs are 1-6 since he started to play.

There are no bad 18-point road wins in conference.  Next is Savage and the Rockets.  BG and UT are tied at 4-3 in MAC play, and these promise to be good games.

BG MBB Preview for WMU

BG heads up, if possible, into west Michigan, where a 100-car pile-up seems to happen once a year or so.  Unbelievable. 

Anyway, the Falcons are headed to Kalamazoo to take on the Broncos. WMU once had a strong MAC program, qualifying for the NCAA tournament three times from 1997 to 2014.

Things have gone south since then.  Since 17-18, they have not had a winning season. Three of those years had single-digit wins.  This, while WMU's athletic program, in general, is gradually taking over the MAC and winning an NCAA Hockey Title.

It's curious.

They started with a KenPom of 292 and have it up to 241. They are 7-11/5-11/1-5.  Their one MAC win was a win over EMU in Kzoo, with losses to UB, @UT, @MU, UMass, and @Akron.  BG has won only 6 of the last 10 against WMU, including splitting the games last year, with each team winning on the road. BG has won 5 of 6 in Kzoo.

The big story here is Justice Williams.  He started as a 4-star recruit and played for LSU for 2 years.  It wasn't really clicking, so he went to Robert Morris, where he was OK, scoring 12 a game.  He sat out last year with a knee injury before coming to WMU.

The issue is that Robert Morris was one of the schools where there was suspicion of shaving points.  WMU kept him out of basketball activities in case he was implicated.  He was eventually cleared and returned to action.

He's played 5 games with 20 points in 3 of them.  Highly efficient.  They are 1-4 in those 5 games.  He's 6'4".

All stats below MAC only.

In terms of the matchup, the biggest thing is that they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country and are last in MAC play. They are 11th in defending the shot...#13 against the 2FG and #7 against the 3FG. This should sit well with the attack BG used against EMU. They are last in forcing turnovers, and they are #12 on the defensive boards...they don't foul too much, they are #6 in allowing FTs.

So, BG should score here.  The Falcons are #3 in the MAC in 3FG, I know it doesn't feel like it. We are #12 in the rate of attempted 3FGs.  

This seems like a good matchup.

WMU is #6 in offense in the MAC.  Their Coach is an Izzo disciple, so you know they are going to crash the boards...#3 in the MAC.  They are #6 at shooting and #5 at taking care of the ball.  They are 12th at getting to the line. 

They are 7th in how often their try 3FGS and #5 at making them.  They are #9 on 2FGs and make 72% at the line, which is 8th.

BG's defensive numbers are terrible against the shot (we hope due to the competition we played), and BG fouls a lot.  The two interesting areas are turnovers and defensive rebounding, where BG and WMU are both strong.

Williams is WMU's leading scorer with 19.6 PPG.  He makes 57% and 44%, plus 88% at the line. 

Jalen Griffith is their second-leading scorer. He's 5'10" and played at Jacksonville and Navarro College before the Broncos.  He's scoring 13 PPG on 50% and 42% shooting and 82% at the line.  Adds 3.8 assists per game.

Hudson Ward is a Penn State transfer who has missed the last 5 games.  No idea if he will play or not.

Jayden Brewer is scoring 12.8 PPG on 51% 2FG shooting.  Also leads the team with 7.3 RPG.  He's 6'6" and transferred from FIU.

They are not big...they are ranked #240 in average height.  And they run a very wide rotation...they have 10 players averaging 10 minutes or more in MAC play and playing more than one game.

BG is a 7.5-point road favorite.