BG MBB Preview for WMU

BG heads up, if possible, into west Michigan, where a 100-car pile-up seems to happen once a year or so.  Unbelievable. 

Anyway, the Falcons are headed to Kalamazoo to take on the Broncos. WMU once had a strong MAC program, qualifying for the NCAA tournament three times from 1997 to 2014.

Things have gone south since then.  Since 17-18, they have not had a winning season. Three of those years had single-digit wins.  This, while WMU's athletic program, in general, is gradually taking over the MAC and winning an NCAA Hockey Title.

It's curious.

They started with a KenPom of 292 and have it up to 241. They are 7-11/5-11/1-5.  Their one MAC win was a win over EMU in Kzoo, with losses to UB, @UT, @MU, UMass, and @Akron.  BG has won only 6 of the last 10 against WMU, including splitting the games last year, with each team winning on the road. BG has won 5 of 6 in Kzoo.

The big story here is Justice Williams.  He started as a 4-star recruit and played for LSU for 2 years.  It wasn't really clicking, so he went to Robert Morris, where he was OK, scoring 12 a game.  He sat out last year with a knee injury before coming to WMU.

The issue is that Robert Morris was one of the schools where there was suspicion of shaving points.  WMU kept him out of basketball activities in case he was implicated.  He was eventually cleared and returned to action.

He's played 5 games with 20 points in 3 of them.  Highly efficient.  They are 1-4 in those 5 games.  He's 6'4".

All stats below MAC only.

In terms of the matchup, the biggest thing is that they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country and are last in MAC play. They are 11th in defending the shot...#13 against the 2FG and #7 against the 3FG. This should sit well with the attack BG used against EMU. They are last in forcing turnovers, and they are #12 on the defensive boards...they don't foul too much, they are #6 in allowing FTs.

So, BG should score here.  The Falcons are #3 in the MAC in 3FG, I know it doesn't feel like it. We are #12 in the rate of attempted 3FGs.  

This seems like a good matchup.

WMU is #6 in offense in the MAC.  Their Coach is an Izzo disciple, so you know they are going to crash the boards...#3 in the MAC.  They are #6 at shooting and #5 at taking care of the ball.  They are 12th at getting to the line. 

They are 7th in how often their try 3FGS and #5 at making them.  They are #9 on 2FGs and make 72% at the line, which is 8th.

BG's defensive numbers are terrible against the shot (we hope due to the competition we played), and BG fouls a lot.  The two interesting areas are turnovers and defensive rebounding, where BG and WMU are both strong.

Williams is WMU's leading scorer with 19.6 PPG.  He makes 57% and 44%, plus 88% at the line. 

Jalen Griffith is their second-leading scorer. He's 5'10" and played at Jacksonville and Navarro College before the Broncos.  He's scoring 13 PPG on 50% and 42% shooting and 82% at the line.  Adds 3.8 assists per game.

Hudson Ward is a Penn State transfer who has missed the last 5 games.  No idea if he will play or not.

Jayden Brewer is scoring 12.8 PPG on 51% 2FG shooting.  Also leads the team with 7.3 RPG.  He's 6'6" and transferred from FIU.

They are not big...they are ranked #240 in average height.  And they run a very wide rotation...they have 10 players averaging 10 minutes or more in MAC play and playing more than one game.

BG is a 7.5-point road favorite.