Akron Preview

 So here we go.  Tonight, the Akron Zips come to town.

Akron was picked to win the MAC and they have the best kenpom in the MAC at 64, starting the year at 94.  They did lose an early-season showdown with Miami at Millett. 

They are 11-4, 9-4. and 2-1.

They have absolutely owned Bowling Green.  There was a seven-game winning streak starting in 2005, one BG win followed by a 17-game losing streak, a 9-game stretch when BG went 4-5, and then a seven-game losing streak that is currently active.  No team in our history has owned us like this.

I would expect a game much like the Kent game. Akron plays the #36 pace in the nation, and they are a true offensive powerhouse.  In raw (not adjusted for opponents) offensive efficiency, they are #3 in the nation.  When adjusted, it is #18 at 1.22 points per possession.

A team with that kind of offense should be good across the board and they are.  They are #3 in Effective Field Goal % at 60.  They make 39% from 3FG (#12) and 61% from 2FG (#47).  They take 41% of their shots from 3FG.  

Beyond shooting, they are #57 at taking care of the ball and #56 on the offensive boards.  They do not get to the line.  This is a prolific offensive team.

Miami held them to 1.02 points per possession, so it can be done.

They are not as strong defensively. They allow 1.1 points per possession, which is below the national average. They are #210 defending the shot, and #250 on the defensive boards.  They do force turnovers (#90) and #145 at keeping their opponents off the line.

They are led by Tavari Johnson, MAC POY candidate.  He is scoring 20.7 PPG on 66% and 44% shooting. He's the #25 shooter in the country and #40 in Offensive Rating. He also makes 90% at the line.  He also leads the team with 5.3 APG.

Amani Lyles is scoring 15 PPG on 66% and 44% shooting.  (Amazing having two guys that efficient). He is also their leading rebounder at 6.6 RPG. 

Akron is a 4.5-point favorite. BG is not playing well at home against good competition, losing to Miami, Utah Valley, and William & Mary.  They will definitely need to turn that around to make this work for the season.  They have been highly competitive in the last two games on the road, and if they can bring that, they have a shot.  Hopefully, Ruffin is back, and Thomas is back to full strength.  A win would send a message to the league.

BG Nabs QB from Portal

BG has their first portal transfer--and it is at the most important position on the field, QB.  His name is Jay Kanstantin, and he is a transfer from Assumption University in Worcester, MA. They play DII.  Currently unemployed football Coach Brian Kelly attended here.

Kanstantin played 3 years for the Greyhounds.  Each year he improved until he had a very strong season this Fall.

At 6'4" and 215 pounds, he's a dual-threat QB.  Last year he rushed 100 times for 530 yards--that would include sacks as well. There was a long of 46 yards and 5 rushing TDs.

In terms of passing, he was 138 for 223 (62%) for 1,974 yards, which is a really good 14.3 yards per catch.  He had 19 TDs over 5 INT.  He was #18 in passing efficiency in DII.

He plays in the NE10 conference, where he was the MVP last season.

Welcome to the Falcons, Jay.

Falcons Lose Close to Kent

 It's still 13 straight.  But it was a tight, close game.  If it all comes together, BG has a shot this year.  Last night, with Thomas severely limited and without Ruffin, BG battled Kent all the way to the end before succumbing.  Say what you like, the team is good entertainment.

The entire game was in a 13-point span.  BG's biggest lead was 4 and Kent's was 9.

The game was tied at the half.  BG came out playing really poorly, and Kent had a 9-point lead about 4 minutes in.  BG punched right back with a 17-7 run to take the lead with 10 minutes left.  With one exception, for the next 10 minutes, the lead was never outside 3 points for either team. There were 6 ties, including with 1:50 left.

BG got a stop and Mayar Wol drained a 3FG on the fast break to put BG up 3 with 1:28 left.  With 1:10 left, Gillespie finally got fouled after the shots at the rim and he made both FTs, leaving BG up 1.

BG ran clock and with :42 left and the shot clock running down, Javonte Campbell took a rare 3FG attempt and missed everything.

And this is the possession that will haunt the Falcons.  Morgan Safford got into the paint, and Glover blocked his shot with :24 left. Kent got the offensive board but lost the ball and it was sitting at the feet of Javonte Campbell.  Most of the team was racing up the floor...but he fumbled it getting up, Gillespie laid it in and in a blink of an eye you go from having the ball up 1 with :13 left to being down 1 with :13 left.

It's not over. Wol got into the paint and missed and then Gillespie was fouled to put Kent up 3.  And BG ran a play that Coach Gallagher said after the game we have run over and over again in practice, it ended up with Wol, he missed.  BG wanted a foul...doesn't seem like the basketball gods give you that call at the end of two consecutive games.

Absolute heartbreaker.  BG didn't call a timeout leading into the possession that ended with the Campbell 3FG...Gallagher said that Campbell is so good at creating stuff that it almost doesn't make sense to try to draw anything up.

He had another great game.

The final was 96-93 on 70 possessions.  It was a score-a-thon.  BG had 1.32 points per possession, an incredible amount, especially to lose with. The last time they had more offensive output and lost was 2006 to NIU. Kent had 136.4, their second-highest output of the season.

BG had their 2nd-best shooting game against D1 opponents. That's 57% on 3FG and 40% on 2FG. They took excellent care of the ball, did an oustanding job on the offensive boards...but the most important thing was the FTs.  Both teams shot well.  Kent was 17 of 21 and BG was 27-31.

Kent shot better (61% and 44%), took good care of the ball, and was good on the offensive boards, even if not as good as BG.

Campbell had another game. Played every minute for the 2nd game in a row. Had 28 points, 8 of 12 from 2FG and 0-3 from 3FG.  You can see his hesitation to shoot from 3FG, and eventually it will make things tougher for him. Add 9 assists and 2 steals, and 12-13 at the line.                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Towns had 13 in 20 minutes due to foul trouble. Shackelford had 17 on 6-7 and 2 of 2 shooting. 

Wol had a rougher 12, on 0-4 and 3-7 shooting.  Glover had 8 rebounds.

Gillespie had 33 on 8 of 15, 1 of 3 and 13-14 at the line.

At 2-2, it doesn't get easier, with Akron at the Stroh Friday.

Next Up For MBB: Kent State

So, BG has left Amherst--where the natives are freaking out, since they didn't want to join the MAC in the first place, and they have yet to win a game in football or men's basketball since joining--and moved on to a school very comfortable in MAC Basketball:  Kent State.

Once Gary Waters went 23-7 in 1999, they have played 27 seasons without a losing record.  Of those, 23 have been outright winning records, and 21 have been 20-win seasons.  There are 7 NCAA appearances, including one Elite Eight.

It is a model of consistency that any program would aspire to.  When they play BG, it's a little bit more. Kent has won the last 12 meetings between the schools, an absurd result that is starting to look like BG's record against Akron. Last year BG lost by 17 in Kent and 7 at the Stroh.

Kent is 11-3/9-3/2-0.  After losing to Troy in the MAC-SBC, the Flashes went on a 10-game winning streak.  They had a tough loss @Portland (#230) and then also lost @Purdue.  They won @UMass by 10 and beat NIU by 4 at home, a game that had Coach Senderhoff ripping his team for failing to finish.  Kent led by 21 at the half, but NIU had the lead to 10, and it ended up at 2 in the final seconds before Kent put it away at the line.

To start with, they play fast.  They play at 73 possessions, which is #21 in the nation. Kent's offensive efficiency is 1.12, which is #103. 

They have two significant offensive strengths.  They have great shooting, 54% overall. They try 46% of their shots from 3FG and make 35% to go with 54% on 2FG. They are also #10 in the nation at getting to the line and make 75% when they get there. They get 25% of their points at the line (#19).  They are also strong on the offensive boards.

It's an interesting matchup.  BG defends the 3FG effectively, and does turn the ball over (#11).  The biggest worry is that BG fouls a ton — #333 at putting opponents on the line.  That's playing with fire with Kent.

On defense, Kent allows 1.09 PPP, which is #207.  However, they have been locked down in their 2 MAC games — admittedly against weak MAC teams.  

Here's a chance to look at BG's shooting.  BG makes 33.9% on 3FG, which is pretty much average (D1 is 33.6%).  BG only takes 35% from 3FG, which is well below average.  On 2FG, they make 54% and overall, they are 52.6%, which is #114 in the country.  BG also takes good care of the ball, gets to the line a lot, and makes 72.5%. BG makes 21.5% of its points from the line.

Kent has defended the shot poorly. They allow 38% on 3FGs and 52% against 2FGs, neither of which is good. They do create turnovers, and they are (as you would expect) good on the defensive boards.  And they foul a lot.

Kent historically just plays very physically.  I have seen stretches of games where they seem to foul as often as they can, knowing they can't all be called.

Kent is led by Delrecco Gillespie.  He's in his 4th year at Kent.  Last year, he had 8 points and 8 rebounds per game.  This year, he has exploded and is averaging a 19/11 double-double and putting himself in the MAC POY convo.  He makes 61% from 2FG and 78% at the FT line. He also blocks 1.9 shots per game.  

Morgan Safford, in his 2nd year after transferring from Miami, is scoring 14.1 PPG.  He shoots mostly 3FGs and makes 36%. Also adds about 5 RPG.

Rob Whaley--a cousin of Gillespie's--is scoring 10.6 PPG and makes 53% on mostly 3FGs.

Cian Medley averages 6.2 APG, which is a lot.

Kent plays 10 players an average of 10 minutes per game, which is a pretty big rotation. 

Kent is a 1.5-point favorite.

Historic Night in Amherst Yields Win

Holy Cow.  The Mullins Center in Amherst, MA, was the site of one of the more remarkable games in years, if not decades, for the Falcons.  It was just craziness, and it ended up with a road victory stolen right off the plate of the home team.

Usually, I look at the players last, but you can't do that in this case.  Javonte Campbell had a historic night for the Falcons.  He scored 47 points on 12 of 18 and 1 of 3 shooting.  And 20 of 27 at the line.  That's an accurate number...he was fouled 18 times.

That is tied for the fifth-most in program history, the most since 1964, and the most ever by a Falcon in a road game.  It is the first 40-point game by a Falcon since Martin Samarco had 43 against Buffalo on Jan. 7, 2007. His performance is the only one in the top 10 to occur since 1966 and the most since 1964. The performance tied Howard Komives, an all-time Falcon great, who scored his against DePaul.

Campbell also went 20-for-27 at the free throw line, tying the program record for free throw attempts in a game, set by Keith McLeod against Ole Miss on Nov. 15, 2001. He was two shy of the free throws made record, currently set at 22 by Ron Lewis against Ball State on March 10, 2003. 

Ball hog?  Nah.  Campbell also had 8 assists and 6 rebounds.  His stats line topped the nation yesterday on KenPom.  It was a historic night, just amazing.

The other amazing thing was the comeback.  If it wasn't for Campbell, we would have talked about this for a long time.  With 54 left, BG was down 7 and had a 2.1% chance of winning.

Ruffin nailed a 3FG and then BG fouled.  UMass made both FTs and it was 6 points with :41 left.

BG came out fast--Frank Martin says we play "bust-out" basketball--and Campbell hit a 3FG...his ONLY ONE of the game.  And it was down to 3 with :35 left.

BG fouled, and UMass split the pair with :30 left to make it 4.  Campbell raced down and scored in the paint, drew a foul, converted the FT and BG was down 1.

The Falcons fouled and UMass made both FTs.  Up 3 with :16 to play. Campbell cuts it to 1 with :11 left.  UMass makes 2 more FTs to lead 3 with :10 left.

And then, with time ticking away, Campbell squared up for a 3FG and he drew the foul that UMass knew you cannot commit. Campbell hit all 3FTs and off to OT we go.

BG never trailed in the OT, but it was not without drama.  With 1:13 left, UMass had tied the game, but Mayar Wol converted a tip-in to put BG up 2 with :42 left. BG got a stop, Campbell cleared the board and was fouled.  He hit both to put BG up 4.  UMass scored at the buzzer, but it was too late...BG won 101-100.

According to KenPom, it was the #28 most exciting game of the year. It was the #25-ranked comeback.

It was a rare game in which BG won despite being outshot. BG had 1.16 points per possession, and they have lost no games this year scoring that well or higher. Overall, they shot 57%, their 3rd best in D1 games this year.  That was 56% and 41%, both excellent numbers. 

UMass shot really well.  They made 60% and 50%. BG was +8 on turnovers, which was one key.  They kept the Minutemen off the offensive boards, which was another.  And in a game with 57 fouls, BG was 30 of 45 at the line, and UMass was 25 of 35, leaving BG +5 at the line.

We mentioned Mayar Wol.  He started as Justin Thomas missed the game, the first time he has not started all season.  (I assume there's an injury).  Wol had a big game.  He scored 21 on 5 of 8 and 3 of 6 shooting, 2-2 at the line, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals.  If that might work for you.  

Ruffin had 10 on 0 of 3 and 3 of 6. Shackleford had 10 points on 3 of 5 from 2FG and 4 of 7 at the line.

Towns had 8 rebounds and 6 assists.

BG played a 7-man rotation, basically, with Leach getting 6 minutes.  Aiden Goins played 20 minutes, his most this year in a D1 game.  Troy Glover fouled out in 21 minutes and was -13.

Whew.  One of those nights.  Gotta turn it right around.  Tuesday at Kent in an OG MAC Battle.

Falcon MBB Heading to Amherst

Tomorrow marks the first game between the BG and UMass Minutemen, who are new members of the MAC in men's basketball.

This is a pretty storied program with some high-level players, including Dr. J, Rick Pitino, Al Skinner and Tom McLaughlin. In 1996 they made the final four, but you won't see that in the record books because Marcus Camby was taking money from agents.  The coach of that team was John Calipari.

They have been to the NCAA Tournament 3 times since then.

Frank Martin was hired to coach in 22-23.  The team was on a streak of 6 straight losing seasons (not counting COVID) and went 15-16 in his first year.  They were 20-11 last year with no post-season.

Frank Martin is a seasoned coach who has been at the top levels, coaching at Kansas State and South Carolina prior to UMass.   He was highly successful at K-state, winning 68% of his games, 4 tourneys and 1 Elite Eight. South Carolina was less successful...he was 54% and made the Final Four in 10 years. 

He's an angry man.  You can find him "ripping angry parents," "epic rant," "exploding," and so on. He introduced himself to the MAC by getting into a non-physical altercation with the mild-mannered Stan Heath.

They were picked #5 in the MAC poll and #6 in Blue Ribbon. They started with a kenpom of 197 and have it up to 176. 

They are 9-5, 8-5 in non-D1 play. Their premier win is a neutral floor victory over #109 Florida State. There was also a win over #154 Boston College--it was semi-home.  They beat LeMoyne by 14 in Amherst, a team BG beat by 23 at the Stroh.

They are 0-2 in the MAC.  They lost at home to Kent and lost @EMU. They are 7-1 at home this year.  They played the #344 non-conference schedule, but that didn't seem to mean much with Miami, so I won't mention it.

They play fast....#23 pace in NCAA and share the ball...assists on 60% of their baskets.

It might be surprising to see that they are more successful on defense than offense.

For raw PPP, they score 1.06, which is about the national average.  Their shooting is average, pretty much from 3FG and 2FG. They are focused on the 2FG...and close up 2FGs.  Their average 2FG is 5.4 feet, which is #98 in the country (new stat!). They also get 34% offensive rebounds, which is #104. They are terrible on free throws, #333 and they are #250 in protecting the ball.

This would appear to be a good matchup for BG.  If we can turn them over and defend the 2FG, we have less to worry about them raining 3FGs, as Miami did.

However, on defense they are strong. On raw defense, they allow 1 point per possession, #79 in the country. They are #7 defending the 3FG but #255 defending the 2FG. That is precisely where BG wants to play, so that will be an interesting matchup. They are average at turning you over, but very good on the defensive boards.  They foul a lot, #340 in free throw rate.

Their leading scorer is Marcus Banks, 16.2 PPG, making 49% and 38%.  High volume of 3FGS and 88% at the line. He's a transfer from UMBC and rarely leaves the floor.

Leonardo Bettiol is their second leading scorer at 15.4 PPG. He's 6'9", Italian, and transferred from Abilene Christian. He makes 56% on nearly all 2FGs.  He also leads the team with 7.4 RPG, and draws 7 fouls a game.

Daniel Sankins-Hanford scores 12.4 PPG. He started at South Carolina, but moved with Martin to Amherst.  He is 6'8" and makes 53% on 2FGs and 14% on limited 3FGs.  He also averages 6.9 RPG. 

K'Jei Parker transferred from Florida A&M and has 10.8 PPG.  He's very good from 3FG at 45%, but selective.

Danny Carbucia, a true-FR, leads them with 5.4 assists in 24 minutes a game.  The assist rate is #23 in the country.

Both teams play short rotations.

This should be a good one. Kenpom gives BG a 57% chance to win and ESPN gives UMass a 57% chance to win.

The Portal is Open

 Today is the big day.  BG football begins a crucial mission of finding players to create a competitive team and culture.  It is Coach George's first real chance to get this set up, and I do think he's going to do it.  The challenges are significant, but he knows that.  He has a positive demeanor, but I wouldn't mistake that for not understanding what the challenges are.

We have about 10 reported offers today.  Your man for those is the same place I go, @thetalontribune.  He's grinding.  Also, the spreadsheet is on the left.  Once guys sign, I'll pop in to take a look at what we know about them.

What a crazy world this has turned into.