MBB Loses Opener

BG went to Hattiesburg to open the season and lost to the Golden Eagles 77-68.  Since BG did not play any exhibition games (opting for closed scrimmages), it was our first time to see the team with 10 new players.

It was a competitive game, but USM was in control almost the whole way.  BG led for less than a minute. USM led for the last 35 minutes, though never more than 12.  BG made a couple runs to get it close but USM always punched back.

BG was down 11 early in the second half...BG got hot from the outside and got it to 2 with 14:58 left. But it was back to 7 a minute later.

In the closing minutes, BG cut the lead to 5 with 1:35 left.  They had two possessions to try and cut it below that, but came up empty both times and that ended up being their last chance.

The game was fast paced, at 74 possessions. BG struggled on offense, scoring .92 points per possession. We expected to see a lot of 3FGs and we did.  BG took 42% of their shots from distance.  They were reasonable accurate, making 36%.  However, they made only 42% of their 2FGs, had a high number of turnovers, did not crash the offensive boards and only got to the line 8 times,  making 4.

USM had 1.04 points per possession. They made only 23% from 3FG, but scorched the BG interior defense, making 64% from 2FG. (Last year's national average was 50%).  They also turned the ball over and didn't offensive rebound, but were 12 of 14 at the line.

USM had 19 points off turnovers, which I don't usually look at.  It seemed to me that USM was especially effective in taking missed shots and live ball turnovers and turning them into easy baskets.

BG played a relatively tight 8-man rotation. The announcers said that BG played two closed scrimmages and has used a different starting lineup every time out.

Starters were Johnson (32 minutes), Butler (27), Thomas (30), Towns (29) and Campbell (32).  Off the bench were Green (13) Khayat (11), Exacte (10), Squire (7), Humphrey (4) and Felt (2).  Mahmoud appeared to be in street clothes, and Pardon and Adem DNP.

USM played only 6 guys 10 minutes or more.  BG used 23 lineup combinations and USM used 9. The best lineup was the starting line up, +5.

Thomas and Butlet led the team with 17 points each.  Thomas was really effective, making 5 of 7 from 3FG.  Butler was 4 of 8 from 2 FG and 3 of 10 from 3FG.  Marcus Johnson had 15 with 4 of 8 from 2 and 2 of 5 from 3.  Campbell also had 14, 5 of 10 from 2FG and 4 of 6 at the line.  He also had 4 assists, 4 steals and 3 TOs.

Sam Towns had 0 points and 10 rebounds.

So, one we go.  Touch game Friday night against Davidson.  

CMU Preview...Will the Beat Go On?

What is their body of work?

CMU is a traditional MAC power who has been in the wilderness for quite a while.  They rode the Brian Kelly/Butch Jones train to 2 10+ win seasons in 6 years, including a 12-2 ranked year in 2009. There were 3 MAC Championships in there.

In the 9 seasons with Dan Enos and John Bonamego, they won 8 games only once and were 1-11 in the last of those years.  In comes Jim McElwain.  There are a number of ways to bring coaches to the MAC.  You can get an up-and-comer--head coach or assistant.  Or, you can try to rehab a P4 coach...like Jim McElwain, who won 65% of his games at Florida before being fired.

He has won 49% in Mt. Pleasant, with 12-20 over the past three years (including this year), and is said to be on the hot seat.

They are 3-5 and 1-3.  They won their FCS game, beat SD State in Mt. Pleasant, and beat Ball State.  Losses are @FIU (blowout), @Ill, OU, @MU and @EMU.  They have lost 3 in a row.

BG and CMU haven't played much.  Only 3 times since 2010.  BG is 2-1 in that time, with a win by Carl Pelini and Loeffler splitting.  BG won the last meeting in 2022.  BG has won 3 straight at Kelly/Shorts Stadium and the last BG coach to lose there was Gregg Brandon.

BG is a 10 point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

29 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart. 

Who are their national leaders?

Donte Kent is #10 in punt returns.

Jordan Kwiatkowski is #17 in TFL.

(MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +3 in MAC play.  They have only one TO in MAC games.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Big issues here.  They started with Joe Labas, an Iowa transfer, who is out for the year.  They were to Bert Emmanuel, Jr., and he is now week-to-week and out this week.  This leaves them with Tyler Jefferson, a R-FR from Florida. He's only completed 49% with 0TDs and 1 INT. He is a dual-threat guy.  He started the EMU game, and Emmanuel came in and sparked a wild game they lost. He went the whole way against Miami's stout defense and struggled as expected.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They score 25 PPG (7th) and gain 6.1 yards per play (5th). BG's defense allows 17.3 points per game, which is 2nd.  The Falcons allow 4.8 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

They are strong here. #2 at 5.8 yards per rush.  Also, note that they have a running QB, something the Falcons have really struggled with. BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they are #11 in team passing efficiency.  Also their top WR, Evan Boyd, will not play.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 64% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  28% overall, #10 in the MAC.  BG allows 30% which is #4 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.8 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.5 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 2 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 11 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

No...sacks on 10% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36.3) and 9th in yards per play allowed (6.5).  BG scored 25.5 which is #8 and 5.5 yards per play which is #9.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 60% completions, 9 TDs over 1 INT and almost 13 yards a completion.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 69% completion is #2 in MAC.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

CMU allows 33%, which is #5.  BG converts 33%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 5 per trip, which is not great. BG offense scores 4.7 per trip, which is also not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Good pass rush, they have sacks on 9.4% of passes. BG allows sacks on 11% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #4 in net punting. They have been blocked once.  In MAC play, BG is #4.

Punt Return?

They are good, #6 in the MAC.  1 TD.

Placekicking? 

He's very good.  All games he's 11 of 13, 8-8 under 40 with a long of 54.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 25, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

So, look.  Rainy weather.  Certain to be a mostly empty stadium. BG coming off a big win and needs to refocus, which has been a problem for our program over the past few years.  CMU is not healthy.  This should be a good matchup for us and BG needs to click the W heading into a big game against WMU at the Doyt the following Tuesday.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (1-8)  Broke 11-game losing streaking by beat Colgate

PSU:  (7-1) Lost to OSU, suspect you saw this

TX A&M: (7-2) Lost @South Carolina

ODU:  (4-5)  Lost to App. State

Akron:  (2-7) Lost to Buffalo

NIU: (4-4) Resting for #MACTION

KSU:  (0-8) Resting for #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) Heart-stopping win over EMU

CMU (3-5) Resting for #MACTION

WMU: (5-3) Resting for #MACTION

BSU (3-5): Resting for #MACTION

MU:  (4-4) Resting for #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Here is how things look.  WIDE OPEN right now.  There is a strong possibility of a tie, so if you are curious here are the official tie breaker rules. Deep tie-breakers are an unanticipated consequence of getting rid of divisions, as multiple conferences are now realizing.  Best case is that head-to-head solves the issue.

The Opener...Southern Mississippi

MBB hits the road to open the season, heading down to Hattiesburg, MS to play Southern Mississippi in the road swing of the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge, which I love.  The other game will be at the Stroh and will be determined by the standings in order to engineer competitive matchups.

Southern Miss athletic alumni include Hall of Famers Brett Farve and Ray Guy. Not so much on the basketball side.  Wendell Ladner, the father of the current coach, was all-ABA rookie.  There was a Clarence Weatherspoon who played a few years in the NBA.

They have been to the NCAA tournament three times, the last time in 2013, a season that vaulted Larry Eustachy on to Iowa State.  Things went bad when they hired Donnie Tyndall, who coached two spectacular years there when it was revealed, among other things, that he had staff doing coursework for the players.  The NCAA called it "audacious." Those two years were vacated and he lost his job at Tennessee.

Today, he coaches at Chipola JC...where Chris Jans once coached and incoming Falcon Derrick Butler played.

I digress.

They moved to the Sun Belt two years ago.  They won the regular season title that year, and then last year had a super rough year.  PG Neftali Alvarez broke his foot in the pre-season and was out for the year.  Andre Curbelo, Illinois/St. John's transfer, was finally made eligible and then had a concussion and did not contribute meaningfully again.

Also, their head coach suffered a heart attack on February 6 and did not have a meaningful role for the remainder of the year.

So, a tough year.  They are back this year.  They were picked 5th in the official pre-season poll and 4th by Blue Ribbon.

They have played two exhibition games--against low-D1 New Orleans (they won 105-102) and Jackson State (also won, 92-85 in OT).  They were down 19 to Jackson State with 15 left to play before rallying. Neither of these are great signs for the team gelling early in the year.

They played a pretty straight 7-man rotation against Jackson State.  The players included:

Andre Curbelo...as mentioned, two-time transfer.  Plays internationally for Puerto Rico. He is 3rd-team All Sun Belt pre-season.  Had 29 points, 6 rebounds and 4 steals vs. Jackson State.  He is 6'0".  Drew 11 fouls in that game.

Denijay Harris was their other leading player.  He's 6'7" and NOT A TRANSFER. He had 25 points, 13 rebounds and made 9 of 14 2FGs. He's in his sixth year.

Christian Watson had 15 points and 8 boards.  He's 6'6" and was highly recruited before going to The Other Miami and playing sparingly for the Final Four team.

DeAntoni Green and 10 points and 7 rebounds. He is 6'6" and was All-OVC at Little Rock.  Has played 91 games.

Neftali Alvarez, coming off that broken foot, struggled in the Jackson State game. Playing his 7th season of college ball.

Cobie Montgomery is a 6'4" G and came off the bench. Hit 34% from 3FG.

Alfred Worrell, JR. Played about 10 minutes. Big 3FG shooter in JUCO.

This is an OLD team.  Of the 7 players I listed above, 5 of them are listed as R-SR or Grad Students and 2 are juniors/

Kenpom gives them a pretty good home court advantage at 3.3 points, #101 in the country.  BG's is 3.

Last year, they lost @Akron to kick off the challenge and then destroyed WMU in the home game, illustrating how much their fortunes faded over the season.

ESPN gives the Golden Eagles a 72% chance of winning.  I don't see a point spread.  Having said that, given a slow Southern Miss start, I think BG has a better shot than that, while being an underdog on the road is expected. 

MBB Preview

Monday, Men's Basketball is back. Doing these previews has gotten to be pretty impossible, given the number of new players we have each year.  Basically, I don't have any idea how good we are going to be and I don't think anyone does.  The only one with an idea is the staff.

One thing I think we can say for sure is that this team appears to be a lot better aligned with how Coach Simon wants to play.  Last year's team shot 29.6% from 3FG, 11th in the MAC.  BG was #5 in scoring thanks to Marcus Hill and his ability to get to the rim, and Rashaun Agee rebounding all those missed shots.

The guys who are coming in are much more likely to be 3FG shooters.

Also, BG probably wants to play faster.  We were #161 in the country and #4 in the MAC in tempo. The MAC was the #25 conference out of 33 in pace of play, so I suspect that BG would like to be at least at the top of that pile.

Just to re-orient ourselves:

Returning Contributors:

Trey Thomas G 6' 0'' 160 Sr. Toronto, Ontario, Canada / Crestwood Prep Vanderbilt

Former SEC player who battled injuries last year.  If healthy, I see him being the glue for this team as they gel.

DaJion Humphrey G 6' 4'' 185 Sr. Detroit, Mich. / Southfield Christian Garden City CC

Started 13 games, averaged 5.7 PPG.

Sam Towns F 6' 9'' 200 Sr. Columbus, Ohio / Pickerington Central Ohio

Strong contributor, played 19 games last year.  

Returning:

Jamai Felt F 6' 10'' 210 R-Fr. Boston, Mass. / Our Saviour Lutheran

Two years of knee injuries, Felt is 6'10" and if he is back to being healthy he has huge upside.  Has yet to play for BG.  Simon told Blue Ribbon that he might be the most athletic big man in the MAC...Huger thought the same.

New:

Alijah Adem  G 6' 2'' 160 Fr. Las Vegas, Nev. / Spring Valley

One of two FR on the roster. Is from Nevada, averaged 26 points and 7.8 assists per game.  The latter number led the state.

Derrick Butler G 6' 2'' 195 Sr. Charlotte, N.C. / Quality Education Academy (N.C.) Central Michigan

Started 26 games for CMU last year, led team in 3FG and 3FG%. Had 17 points in Stroh against BG.

Javontae Campbell G 6' 2'' 155 Jr. Muskogee, Okla. / Muskogee Northern Oklahoma

#67 JUCO recruit.  Scored 26 PPG and 31% 3FG. #2 JUCO scorer.  Was injured but played on the BG foreign trip.

Wilguens Jr. Exacte F 6' 6'' 236 So. Montreal, Canada / College Notre Dame Utah

Played in Latin American NBA Academy.  Missed all of last year with injury, played 32 games as FR. Also a stretch.  Could be rehabbing.

Braelon Green G 6' 3'' 180 So. Southfield, Mich. / Southern California Academy Arizona State

Averaged 5.5 minutes per game at Az. State. Highly recruited out of Michigan. Will play 1 and 2 for BG.

Marcus Johnson F 6' 7'' 265 Sr. Akron, Ohio / St. Vincent-St. Mary Wheeling

DII player.  Shot 45% from 3FG.  Kind of an Anderson Mirambeaux-body. Was hurt this summer.

Youssef Khayat F 6' 9'' 215 Jr. Beirut, Lebanon / Limoges CSP (France) Michigan

Averaged about 6 minutes per game in two years at UM. Had huge game against Spain in Olympic Qualifier. Simon says is a "three level scorer."

Mohamed Maxamud F 6' 10'' 190 Jr. Westerville, Ohio / Westerville Labette CC

Averaged 9.2 PPG and 4.4 RPG in JC

Jaxon Pardon G 6' 4'' 170 Fr. Fort Wayne, Ind. / Carroll

Other FR on roster.  Son of BG legend Brandon Pardon. 1,000 point HS scorer.

Preston Squire F 6' 11'' 225 So. Ephraim, Utah / Layton Salt Lake Community College

Stretch-4 like Jason Spurgin.  37% 3FG shooter.

OK, big picture.

The MAC has four signature programs: OU, UT, Kent and Akron. They are good almost every year. The fight, including BG, MU, BS and CMU, is who breaks into that group.  There can't be 8 competitive teams.

Who can break in?

Blue Ribbon picked BG #5 as did the MAC.  Kenpom projects BG #7.  Kenpom ranks BG #264 which is compared to the #239 from last year, projecting 14-15 and 8-10.

When I look at the roster, it seems like we might be a tough team to stop and have a shot with our coaches, but who really knows.  There certainly seems to be depth.

We had a foreign trip this year.  I always think that's a good way for a team to build a cohesive core before the season starts.

BG has 2 non-D1 games on the schedule.  They play @MSU and host Davidson, which is the top non-conference game. We don't have to play in the JAR.

I'm excited and looking forward to the season. I like our Coaches and I think they give us a shot and I think we will see a fast-paced, exciting team.  Off we go.

Happy Halloween to the Falcon Nation

 

Weekly Presser

Coach had literally nothing of interest today, nor was he asked anything that could elicit anything interesting.

He got the question of how the staff adjusts to the mid-week schedule...again.  Clawson used to roll his eyes and one time said "I can't believe you guys keep asking about that."

Anyway.  Some other information.

Nick Reimer is no longer on the roster. He was a transfer who played significant snaps in the first two games, was injured, came back for the Kent game and then was listed as unavailable for the UT game.  And now is gone.  This comes amid three weeks of oblique comments from Loeffler about the drama on the team and the previous departures of Billie Roberts and Jaylon Tillman.  After UT, Loeffler said "it should be behind us now," possibly in connection with this latest roster development.

As for as RJ Garcia, I have nothing to report.  He was supposedly healthy, dressed once and since then is listed as unavailable.  No idea.  I can tell you that he used his redshirt at Kansas State.  Also, his brother is a verbal commit to BG and still has it listed on his x.

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-8)  Lost to Lehigh

PSU:  (7-0) Beat Wisconsin

TX A&M: (7-1) Beat LSU, big win.  Elko can coach.

ODU:  (4-4)  Smoked Georgia Southern

Akron:  (2-6) ZIPS WIN!!  Beat EMU

NIU: (4-4) The curse of beating ND.  Ball State hits 52 yarder to win

KSU:  (0-8) Smoked by WMU

UT:  (5-3) LOST TO BOWLING GREEN

CMU (3-5) Lost 46-7 to Miami

WMU: (5-3) Blasted Kent

BSU (3-5): Beats NIU on 52 yard FG

MU:  (4-4) Beat CMU 46-7

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Here is how things look.  WIDE OPEN right now.  There is a strong possibility of a tie, so if you are curious here are the official tie breaker rules.

Rockets Vanquished. Jubilation Reigns.

Welcome Home, Baby.

 

In my season preview this year, I cited this situation:

BG-UT, 4th Quarter.  Defense gets a 3 and out and BG has the ball, up 6, with 5:42 left.  UT has 2 timeouts left.  A couple first downs, and the game should be over.  At a minimum, you should be able to force UT to use their timeouts by running the ball.  Unfortunately, BG has no confidence in their ability to run the ball, and goes three and out with 2 pass plays, both incomplete.  They make 0 yards and kill only 1:06.

I said we were a championship team when we put that game away on offense.

Yesterday, BG gets the ball with 8:34 left in the game, up 8. Very similar.  Fannin for 18, Stewart for 18, and little Rahkim Smith bullies the Rocket backs (#21 I see you) to get into the end zone on a 19-yard jet sweep...and BG was up 15.  That's a 5-play drive where BG executed while bleeding time.  It was a 3:23 drive that made it a two score game with 5 to play.  

That's what I'm talking about.

The defense got a four-and-out and the Falcons took the ball over with 4:23 left.  They didn't score, but they made a first down and killed 3:17 off the clock despite the Rockets using their timeouts and the 2 minute time out.  

That's what I'm talking about.

So, so, proud.  This is the team we hoped we would see.  Nothing's decided, but it was an absolutely glorious day...good weather, a big crowd, and a great BG win in the biggest game on the schedule.

Thank you to our guys.  Everyone...coaches, staff, players, families...best band in the MAC...Coach talked afterward about a week of no sleep, apparent drama within the team, putting plays into the game plan until Friday afternoon.  Winning is no accident.  Thank you from the fans for the thrill you gave us yesterday.  I can't wait to watch this team again.

 And if you have seen the stoic Coach Loeffler, have no doubt how much this game means to him.

BG played a really good game.  Starting with the offense, BG had the kind of line play they needed to win in the MAC, especially as the weather begins to turn. Reimer was not dressed, but BG got an outstanding game, especially on pass blocking.  Bazelak threw 30 passes and was only pressured on 5 of them.  PFF graded Jake Burns at 85, Pabst 79 and Padgett at 72, meaning that the up the middle rushes that were killing us did not happen.  Bazelak was sacked twice.

BG finally ran the ball effectively.  Here, I would give credit to the players, but also the coaches.  Our playcalling was at its best.  Other times, I have felt like we continued to run the ball into the line, but BG was really tough to defend....there was a great deal of misdirection...from counters to jet sweeps, and BG showed some creativity in getting its runners into space.  And we executed.

Stewart was 21-99, with a long of 25 and 1 TD.  He was productive, to be sure. We didn't win all of his carries, but plenty.  Jamal Johnson 5-54, Rahkeem Smith, 2-33 and Fannin 2-12---a combined 9-99--that is some incredible counter-production.  And, I think, largely decisive. BG also used Bazelak a couple of times on options.  It was a winning game plan executed well.

BG ran 37 times and passed 27 times.  Bazelak was 17 of 27, with NO INT.  He is playing really well.  BG had 171 yards passing.  Fannin caught 6, Johnson caught 4 and Smith 3.  Levi Gazerak, a true warrior, caught his first TD pass in his career.

(Levi is from North Baltimore, and Coach was in his first days as our coach.  His staff told him they were going to go to North Baltimore to talk to a recruit and he yelled at them that we were supposed to be recruiting locally.)

Defensively, it was a high quality game, starting with two Oladukon picks.  This is so great.  He was the guy who started the team this winter in announcing when they were staying and NOT entering the portal.  This is a guy we need.  He had two picks and one of them, a beautiful INT where he sat on a route to Newton and took it into the end zone, blunting UT just as they were getting some momentum.  He graded 90 from PFF.

Gleason was 30 of 45 for 320 yards.  Newton and Vandeross are high-quality receivers and Candle is an offensive coach and they got the ball a lot.  BG did get pressure on Gleason, as he dropped back 50 times and was pressed on 13 of them.  In particular, I felt like he was really disoriented in the last minutes of the game, when BG's defense was closing it out.  He was wildly inaccurate and made a bad decision to run for a first down on a key 4th down play.

UT came in not running the ball well.  Without Jacquez Stuart, who carried once, they lack the star power they need.  Walenzak carried 15 times for 58 yards, but 200 yards worth of praise from Reghi.

Sipp had 11 tackles and 2 for loss.  Huge game.  Brock Horne had 10 tackles and graded over 80 for run defense and tackling on PFF.

Special teams? BG's punting was not as good as normal, with net punting at 37.  We did keep their punt return from being a factor.  And Zach Long nailed two FGs, from 47 and 35, and all his extra points.  Kickoffs were good except for a weird decision to kick short twice late in the game, giving up yardage and putting the ball in Newton's hands 2 extra times.

Anyway, a complete game.  And a rivalry win.  Loeffler is 3-3 against the Rockets.  This is how it is supposed to be.  A long-time Falcon fan on Twitter noted that Loeffler is the first coach we have had in quite a while who treated the rivalry as importantly as it should be...as in, it's not life and death because it is more important than that.

Well, things look much better now.  With one loss in league play and games against WMU and Miami (two other contenders), BG is playing meaningful November football and has its fate largely in its own hands.  As Coach said, the biggest thing in college football today is winning a big game and then losing one the next week.  They are all tough.  This is why it is hard to win titles.  On to Mt. Pleasant.

Hated Rival Preview

What is their body of work?

Look, these guys are in the same place every year.  Big start, Briggs writes columns about them running the table and making the playoff, by mid-year they are done with that, and yet they are always in the hunt for the MAC title.  They have the best recruiting in the MAC and have been consistently better than BG over a long period.

Last year, the portal bug hit them really for the first time, with DeQuan Finn heading to Baylor and Peny Boone to UCF.

Having said that, the last two games have been absolute classics. In each game, the road team snatched victory with a gut-punching late play. We're back on a Saturday--next year in BG on a Saturday--and we hope it's a good one.

BG is a 3.5 point road dog.

How experienced are they?

28 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart.  More experienced on defense.

Who are their national leaders?

Braden Awls is #12 in INT per game.

Avery Smith is #8 on passes defended

Bryson Hammer is #3 in punt returns

Jerjuan Newton is #5 in receiving TDs

Maxen Hook is #6 in Solo tackles.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +1...9 turnovers lost and 10 gotten.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

So, we don't know who is going to start.  Tucker Gleason was the starter and was injured at UB.  John Alan Richter took his place, rallied them and then QB'd the Rockets past NIU last week. Gleason has played quite a bit and was #2 in the MAC in passing efficiency when he went down.  Richter had a rougher game against a good NIU defense.  Neither one of these guys is DeQuan Finn, but both are high-quality MAC QBs.

What is their scoring and yards per play

The Rockets score 29.6 PPG, which is #4 in the MAC. They only get 5.4 yards per play, which is middle of the pack. BG's defense allows 21.4 points per game, which is 3rd.  The Falcons allow 5.4 yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

It is not what it once was. They are averaging only 3.2 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.8 per rush, 9th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #2 in passing efficiency.  BG is #3 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They have run and passed almost equally, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  37% overall, #7 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

4.5 points per trip, which is not great.  They have 9 empty red zone trips.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.8 points per trip allowed, #9 in the nation. BG has forced 4 scoreless trips and 10 FGs in 31 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

They do...sacks on 4% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 9.5% of passing attempts.

Defense:

UT does not have the high-powered offense they have had in the past.  They do however, have what is probably their best defense.

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #2 in scoring defense in the MAC (19.6) and 2nd in yards per play allowed (4.9).  BG scored 25.1 which is #5 and 5.8 yards per play which is #3.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #4 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 59% completions, lead the MAC with 8 INT, They do allow over 11 yards per reception.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 67% completion is #2 in MAC. BG has 11.4 yards per completion.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

UT allows 35%, which is #5.  BG converts 39%, which is #3.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 4.8 per trip, which is pretty good. Forced 11 FGs in 26 attempts.   BG offense scored 4.5 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not bad, they have sacks on 6.3% of passes. BG allows sacks on 6.9% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #6 in net punting.  No blocks, 0 TD.  FWIW, BG is #20 in the nation in net punting.

Punt Return?

They are good, #9 in the country.  Plus one blocked kick.

Placekicking? 

He's pretty good.  8 of 10, long of 48, only 1 miss under 40.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 29, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

On the plus side, BG has tended to show up to play for this game.  They will need to. BG has yet to beat a team with an FBS win...and the FCS team we beat is winless, too.  BG will need to bring the A&M game to have a shot.

I think it's going to be a relatively low scoring game.  I think the key for BG is going to come on the offensive line.  This is a big boy assignment and BG needs to run the ball and protect Bazelak. We also need to have our WRs get open--that will be a big assignment against this defense. With that, BG has a real shot.

The stadium will be filled and hopping.  It would be a huge win for the program and give us a real shot at making it to Detroit.  We can still make it with a loss, but probably would need to win out.