Miami Preview

 And on we go.  We are one-third of the way through the year, and winless.  Yet every year brings this kind of reset...we start MAC play.  If things turn around, we can forget about the slow start.  And the MAC is where we are supposed to be able to compete.  It has been 11 years since we hoisted the trophy or played for it.

Miami is first up.  The MAC seems to be lining up into haves and have-nots, and I fear Miami is in the first group and we are in the second.  They supposedly pay their players competitive rates, and they have played in the last 3 MAC title games, winning one of them.

We did not play them last year.  After the Big Ben season, they were pretty average for a few years, but things have changed since Chuck Martin arrived.  Miami has won 6 of 8 vs. BG in that time, and BG's last win in Oxford was a shocking 37-29 win in 2017.  Miami won the last meeting, 28-12 at the Doyt...a division title was at stake, but Loeffler's Falcons could not hold serve, and Miami moved to the final.

Defense has been Miami's calling card.  Over the last 5 years, they have been in the top 3 in the MAC in scoring defense, while ranking in the top 5 in offense only once in that period.

Things have been a little different this year, but they could still change in MAC play.  They are 2-2. They have an easy win over Holy Cross, and a thrilling homecoming win over UConn, led by a backup QB and a FR kicker cashiering the winning FG. They lost big to Pitt (59-14) and lost a shootout, 35-31, to UC.

They are #88 in SP+.  BG, the MAC's only winless team, is #136, ahead of only ULM and Charlotte. They are 13.5-point favorites.

That's with David McComb, their Kansas transfer star QB, #2 passer in the MAC, is out for the season.  So, down your starting QB, still a 14-point favorite.

Their backup is Caleb Havener, a JUCO transfer.  He had big numbers there and was 3-3 leading Miami's winning drive against UConn.

They rank #4 in scoring in the MAC this year and #2 in yards per play at 6.8. Here's where the QB injury could be trouble...they are #11 in running the ball to date and #2 in passing efficiency.  They are relying on passing, and if they struggle to do that, they present a different team.  

They are #3 on 3rd down, which is a force multiplier.  They have 8 TDs and 3 FGs on 12 red-zone attempts.

On paper, everything is a mismatch with the BG defense after Nebraska and Iowa State.  That said, BG showed strong defense last week, and if it continues, this becomes a more winnable proposition.  Assuming BG's offense doesn't do a 180, its defense will need to compete in any game this year.  BG will be without Myles Bradley, who had four sacks against USF.

Speaking of sacks, Miami has allowed six sacks on 112 attempts.

Miami is -1 on turnovers.

Defensively, Miami is #7 in scoring defense, #7 in yards per rush allowed, and #9 in passing efficiency defense.  Ordinarily, this might be viewed as an opportunity for BG, but it's going to take a surprising performance for BG to capitalize on this.  MU allows 66% completions, has only 1 INT, and allows 12.1 yards per completion.

They rank #7 in defending 3rd down and have allowed 10 TDs on 11 red-zone attempts.

Special teams-wise, their kicking has struggled. (Highly unusual for Miami). Their original kicker was 2-6 with a long of 24, so they brought in Brady Stidham to nail the winner (from 33) against UConn.  The original kicker (McLaughlin) is still listed at the top of their depth chart.  BG is the only team that hasn't missed a FG this year.

Miami would have to have a punter named Pierse, yes spelled with the "S." Miami is #9 in net punting, while BG is last.

In the return game, Scoop Smith is #2 in the nation in Kickoff returns, averaging 44 with one TD. Their punt return is negligible.

We would be remiss not to mention the insane history between these two schools.  Miami has dominated the series, amid crazy games like the last one on Doytgrass, the Fog Bowl, the 4th down call, it goes on.  There was one year when Miami's long snapper put three of them out of the end zone.

You get the idea.

George Presser

 Coach George had his presser today.  A couple of interesting points.

First, Myles Bradley is doubtful for next week.

Second, Clint Corpe did his best to ask the question that I think most fans have.  In fact, it's as close as any member of the media has come in years to asking a hard question to a BG Coach.  Questions usually are like, "how did this feel?" and "how tough was that?"

He asked Coach about why we didn't take to the pass game sooner, given that it was clear we weren't going to be able to run....a question that has been on the lips of many fans.  And Coach said that it was because we didn't think we could protect the QB and that kept us from looking downfield more.  He also noted that we tried a few downfield shots, but didn't execute them, including on the last drive.

He was also asked about Kastantin's play.  He said "he has to get better."  The question left open that there might be a change, but he didn't take that bait.  Coach said that the Jay missed some throws that were open and he has to learn to execute under pressure.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (3-0)  Bye

Sep. 12 Nebraska (4-0) Won easily @MSU.

Sep. 19 Iowa State (2-2) Lost to Utah

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (4-0) Beat us

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (2-3) Beat UConn (HA HA Candle)

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-3) Lost 35-6 to UMass

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-3) Lost to Kent

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (2-2) Beat Robert Morris 31-28

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (2-2*) As nation watched, loss to Boise 32-7 in Kzoo

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (2-2) Beat BSU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (3-1) Cruised past SD State

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (4-0).  Beat Sac State

MAC vs. FCS: 12-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-16

MAC vs G?: 6-10

Homecoming Sadness

 Oof.  It was almost the perfect homecoming.  Great weather.  Huge crowd.  HUGE.  And a team putting a much improved performance over its first three games.

The only thing that would have made it perfect, said Coach George afterward, would be to have won.

Instead, the Falcons fall to 0-4.

It was a day marked by a putrid offensive performance.  Look, a lot of people are focusing on the playcalling or the run-oriented offense that BG is using this year.  I don't object to that...teams have won the MAC playing that way.  I'm not sure it's the best fit for our personnel.  We are inexperienced (not even young) on the line and offer virtually nothing at WR that can take the top off and relieve pressure.  These are weaknesses that were apparent last year when the season ended and very much turned out to be.

You can't blame the defense.  More on that later.

The turning point came on the first play of the 4th quarter.  BG up 6-0 and 4th and 1 on their own 45.  They had the whole break to think about it.  Coach said he was contemplating punting.  He said the team stuck together, the defense was all over him saying they had the offense's back, and he decided to go for it. (I'd feel better if the offense was all over him saying we could make it, but....) .  We went for it.

Dendy got the ball and was blown up behind the LOS. Coach said one of the linemen went the wrong way and left the gap open and the play had no chance.  

FWIW, I was in favor of going for it.  You have to be able to make 1 yard.

Six plays later, the Bulls were in the end zone and instead of defending a lead, but was playing from behind.

Time for the offense to rally.  One first down and a 35 yard punt later, USF started on their own 28.  Six plays later, aided by a personal foul against BG (and a really sketchy DPI), USF was up 14-6.  There's 5:34 left to play, with 9:30 turning the tide.

At least the offense came alive.  Starting at their own 18, they made 4 first downs, converting a 3rd and 10 and a 3rd and 4.  It was third and 7 from the 21 with :53 to play. And the wheels came off.  Kastantin was sacked for a 9-yard loss. On 4th down, USF brought the house, Kastantin ran for his life and just before going down flung the ball to the middle of the field.  Winn Sharp caught it one yard short of the first down and that was that.

Category	Bowling Green	South Florida
Yards per rush	2.6	3.9
Yards per completion	7.6	7.4
Completion %	57.1% (16/28)	63.6% (7/11)
Yards per play	3.4	4.0
3rd down	5/15 (33.3%)	3/10 (30.0%)
Red zone	1/1 (100%)	2/2 (100%)
Turnovers	0	2
Special Teams Index	+2	+5
Explosive plays	3 — 38 yards	7 — 131 yards

These are not great numbers.  USF came in at 5.2 yards per play and BG held them to 4.  Some of this is a little misleading.  USF has 52 yards passing and 49 yards in sacks.  However, those get added to rushing in college ball.  Crowder averaged 6.2 yards per carry, which is good.  But, 4 yards per play is a solid day.

Meanwhile, BG's offense was just dreadful, even after being +2 on turnovers.  BG's line can't block the run or the drop back pass.  I don't see that there's much to be done with playcalling.  In fact, BG called two perfect pass plays, but Kastantin overthrew the receivers on both (these were on the final drive.)

Which is not to blame our QB.  Because he has to run for his life so often, he's the right guy for this assignment.

Obviously, you don't get new players.  If the defense can continue to be effective, the offense doesn't have to score 30 to win.  But 3.4 yards per play will lose every game.

Quick word about Myles Frazier, a LB/S who entered the portal last year and then returned.  He had a record day for BG.  He had 4.5 sacks and forced fumbles on two of them, one of which he recovered.  BG believes it's a record for sacks in a game, though there aren't complete records for that stat.

He had a hell of a day.  BG just abused the RT on pass pro.

So on we go.  Down to Miami, the defending champions and 2-2 on this year.  The issues with the offense are plain to see.  BG needs to figure out how to move the ball to have any shot in Oxford.

USF Preview

 All right, folks, here we go.  South Florida is in town... and BG will be going for their first win of the year against the 3-0 Bulls.  Here are some things to know.

The Bulls beat FIU 19-9, Army 28-24 and Delaware State 59-17.

They were picked #4 in the American Conference. 

We have played them once, in an Urban Meyer game.  We played in Tampa in 2002 and they beat us 29-7.

Right now, in SP+, they are #67.  BG is #156 (we are the #2 ranked DII team) and USF is a 17.5 point favorite tomorrow.

BG is going to have to show something we haven't seen in order to get this win.  Back at home, nice day, who knows?

Despite their two wins, there are signs that the Bulls are not necessarily as good as their record. Removing their FCS game, they are 2-0 in their FBS games but have been outgained by 80 yards per game, which is not normal.  That's probably at least partly because they are deadly good on 3rd down (46%) and are +4 in turnovers, and that's 4 takeaways and zero losses.

They are #37 in the nation in scoring defense and they are allowing 5.3 yards per play, which is not bad.  They are stronger against the rush (3.9 per carry) but #109 in passing defense.  They have given up 137 plays to their own 111, which I assume is from playing Army.

On the offensive side, they are pretty average...#87 in scoring, 5.2 yards per play--basically even with their defensive side, despite being 2-0.  They are rushing 3.8 yards per game, which is not good at all. They have passed effectively, with 63% of their passes completed and 11 yards per catch, which is a pretty good combination. They have also allowed only 1 sack in 48 attempts, #10 in the country.

Their coach, of course, is former Buckeye WR Brian Hartline.

As mentioned, they are making 46% on 3rd down and they are 100% in the red zone with 3 TDs and 3 FGS in 6 attempts.

They are very strong on special teams.  Nico Gramatica, son of Martin, is 4-4 this year with a long of 53.  They are #24 in net punting and #15 in kickoff return defense. 

Their QB, Michael Van Buren, JR., is a transfer from LSU who started the last four games of the '25 season for the Tigers.  Before that, he started 8 games at Mississippi State. He is a dual-threat QB.

None of the players were all-American conference in the pre-season.  That's not a surprise since they returned only 4 starters, with a new coach and all.

In summary, this is a 3-0 that is not as strong as most 3-0 teams are. They are rightfully heavily favored tomorrow, and there's every reason to think that's how it goes.  If BG is better than we think, this would be a good time to unveil it.

Past and Future Opponents

Sep. 5 Tarleton State Texans (3-0)  Beat Merrimack

Sep. 12 Nebraska (3-0) Beat North Dakota

Sep. 19 Iowa State (2-1) Beat us

Sep. 26 USF Bulls (3-0) Beat Delaware State

Oct. 3 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (1-3) Lost to UC

Oct. 10 Sacramento State Hornets (1-2) Lost to NoDak State.

Oct. 17 Ball State Cardinals (1-1) Beat Stony Brook

Oct. 24 Buffalo Bulls (1-2) Smoked by Liberty

Oct. 31 Western Michigan Broncos (2-1*) Beat Rice

Nov. 10 Kent State Golden Flashes (1-2) Lost to OSU

Nov. 20 Toledo Rockets (2-1) Miracle comeback to beat Temple

Nov. 28 UMass Minutemen (3-0).  Beat Stonehill

MAC vs. FCS: 11-1

MAC vs: P4:  1-15

MAC vs G?: 4-6

Football Hates Me

 Bowling Green was wiped out again yesterday, this time against a P4 team, but far from a high-quality one...the Iowa State Cyclones, in the bottom part of the Big XII.

I'm not talking about not winning. I'm talking about representative games played last year against UC and Louisville, and wins over Georgia Tech and Minnesota under similar circumstances.  BG was a 23-point underdog and lost this one by 48.

Since beating Toledo, BG has lost 8 of 9.  The only win was putting a nail in UMASS' 0-12 season. 

There are 138 teams in the FBS.

BG is 135 in rushing defense and 125th in rushing offense.

BG is 132 in scoring defense and 136 in scoring offense.

BG is #135 in passing efficiency defense, #131 in TFL.

BG is the only team in the FBS that does not have at least one touchback on a kickoff.

Next up is USF, at 3-0 and the #63 FPI, according to ESPN.  BG is third from the bottom...8 of the bottom 12 are in the MAC.

The Iowa State game was close for one play.  BG scored on a nice pass to Winn Sharp, and then on the ensuing kickoff a guy named Cameron Pettaway housed it...did we know he could do that?

In the post-game, the worrisome thing is that Coach George talked about us failing on our fundamentals.  That's not actually that comforting.  Many of the guys who are playing were here for the Spring.  Between that and fall camp, we should have the fundamentals in place.  And apparently we don't.  Seems like it's the kind of thing that's tough to put together when you are 0-3.  

Here is the story of the numbers:

Statistic	Bowling Green	Iowa State
Yards per rush	3.0	7.9
Yards per completion	10.7	11.8
Completion %	40.9% (9/22)	66.7% (12/18)
Yards per play	3.6	7.9
3rd-down conversions	16.7% (2/12)	40.0% (4/10)
Red-zone efficiency	N/A (0 opportunities)	100% (3/3)
Turnovers	2	1
Special Teams Index	-9	+13
Explosive plays	4	11
Explosive-play yards	110	296

It's more one-sided than the Nebraska game.  Special teams were awful.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a new punter...Bowling Green is #113 in net punting and the punter has been mentioned in the last 2 post-game pressers, which can't be good.

Our top Dback, JoJo Johnson, is out for the year.

Novosad did play the 2nd half at QB,  Coach said that Kastantin was on an IV at half time, and they decided to see if Novosad would catch fire.  He did nothing to create a QB controversy.

I don't think the issue is at QB.  It starts up front and includes the entire defense.  Way too often there is no one in a spot someone should in...I have no idea whether they are underprepared or just not disciplined, but they are done with P4 play and will find the same problems haunting them when we get to the MAC.

It is a very difficult place for us to be.  There's nothing encouraging out there.  Coach says it's always darkest before dawn, but it keeps getting darker.