Past Opponent Land. How did it all shake out?

Past Opponent Land:

Fordham: (2-9)  

PSU:  (11-1) Beat Maryland, in Big 10 Title Game

TX A&M: (8-4) Lost to Texas, on playoff bubble

ODU:  (5-7)  Beat Ark State

Akron:  (4-8) Closed with win over Rockets

NIU: (7-5)  Closed with win over CMU

KSU:  (0-12) First non-COVID winless season in FBS in 5 years

UT:  (7-5) Lost to Akron

CMU (4-8)  New coach time.  Mora??

WMU: (6-6) Bowl eligible.

BSU (3-9): New coach time.

MU:  (8-4) Playing for the title.

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

MBB Wins Close One in Tempe

 BG went to Tempe to play two games in an MTE.  They ended up with the two best teams in the tournament and both games came down to the final possession.  And, BG picked up the win in the second, a nice win for our club.

First, BG played both games without Sam Towns and Youssef Khayat, presumably to injury.  The BG starters were Johnson, Butler, Thomas, Campbell and Exacte.

It was a close game the entire way, with no team leading by more than 7.  That was even truer in the first half, when no team led by more than 5 and BG held the lead for 12 minutes.  BG led by 3 at the break.  Key note is that while the game was close, the shooting was terrible on both sides.

Dr. Naismith explains basketball to a Springfield resident

The Falcons held the lead for the first five minutes of the half before the Aggies took a 31-30 lead.

The next few minutes were closely contested, with leads within 2 points either way. 

With 7 minutes left, a short run put the Aggies up by 7, but a 10-3 run tied the game with 3:22 left.

The game went from 3:22 to 1:23 with no scoring at all.  NM State got a 3FG with 1:33 left.  Felt was fouled after getting an offensive rebound and missed both FTs (4-6 on the night). 

With 1:14 left, the Aggies were fouled and split the pair, now up 4.  At that point, New Mexico State has a 90% chance of winning. 

Campbell missed a 3FG, but Johnson got the offensive board.  BG called time and Johnson scored and was fouled...converting the and-one and the lead was down to 1 with :50 left.

NM State ran clock and finally shot with :23 left.  They missed and Johnson cleared the board. 

BG called time with :15 left.  Campbell drove to the rim and drew the foul.  He converted both FTs and BG was up 1.

Aggie timeout.  They get a drive to go for the win, and though it doesn't show up in the play by play, Derrick Butler blocked the shot and preserved the Falcon win.

The game was played at 67 possessions.  It was a terrible night for the art of offensive basketball.  BG had .91 points per possession, shooting 32% on 2FG and 24% on 3FG.  I went to try and see when BG shot this poorly and won, and I didn't have to look any farther than last year's Southern Indiana game. The Aggies had .89 points per possession.  They shot a little better (32% on 2FG and 36% on 3FG), but had double the turnovers but were very good on the offensive glass.  

The key difference was at the line.  BG committed 15 fouls and the Aggies committed 22.  Here, BG got the ball into the peach basket. BG was 26 of 30 at the line.  NM was 8-10.

BG is #9 in the country in FT%.

Marcus Johnson had a big night.  He scored 23 on 5 of 8 and 2 of 5 shooting. He made all 7 FTs, added 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.  Butler had 15, though less efficient.  He was 2 of 8 and 2 of 7 shooting.  He did have 5 rebounds 5-5 at the line and the game's most important defensive play. Campbell had 12...1 of 9 2FG shooting, but 10-12 at the line and 8 rebounds.  Felt has 12 rebounds in 29 minutes and 2 blocked shots.

Exacte started but only played 4 minutes.  No idea why.

So, BG has the week off.  Next up is Morgan State at home....a game they should absolutely win.

For today, they are 3-5, 2-5 in D1 games. The conference is off to a poor start as everyone tries to find their way.  

MBB plays at 2

So, not much to comment on MBB since I was following on my phone while at the Doyt.

BG played Weber State in Tempe and lost in the final seconds.  We had a 10-point lead with 14 left to play in the game (84% chance to win) and WSU scored the next 9 points to cut it to 1.  The game bounced back and forth and then WSU went up 4 or so and BG came back and with 2:09 the game was tied.  BG got two stops and failed to score on theirs. Campbell was fouled with :48 left. He split the pair to put BG up 1.  WSU made a layup with :28 to go up 1.  BG had last shot, Johnson missed a 3FG with :06 left and it was over.

Khayat and Towns both were DNP.  My sources (FalconMedia) say Khayat was injured late against Bellarmine.  No idea about Towns.

Butler had 16 on 4 of 8 and 1 of 5 shooting. Campbell had 13 on 4 of 9 2FG shooting. Green had 10. Felt added 7 rebounds in 11 minutes.  Overall, BG shot 45% from 2FG, 29% from 3FG and made 86% at the line.  WSU was very similar in all areas, except making 63% on 2FG, which was the difference.

Next up is New Mexico State for the 2-5 Falcons.  They were picked #7 in CUSA, which is the #10 conference.  They are 3-3 and 2-4 in D1 games. They beat Utah Tech (295), TAM-Corpus Christi (208), lost to Dayton (24) by 19, UNLV (108) and then Pepperdine (255) yesterday.  That's 3 losses in a row.

They are really struggling to shoot the ball.

We'll get more into it tomorrow.

Sadness Accures

And there was much unhappiness.

Doesn't feel any better the next day. What a heartbreaking day.

Don't want to send the wrong message.  Very proud of what this program became this year.  It was a long haul and a 6-2 record in the MAC with a win over Toledo was a rewarding year. It was a fun season...fun to watch games and figure we will win.  There were spurts of excellence and some disappointing moments.  The ODU loss...but really the NIU loss at home.  That one was really costly.

It's heartbreaking for all that.  And when you see how hard you have to work to get a shot, and then it slips away.  Winning championships is really hard.  We have an experienced team that stuck together. This was the time.  Until it wasn't.  And we will get another shot, but the guys who stuck with us, who played through all that mess, who worked to make this team what it was...they won't get another shot.  Period.

Coach Loeffler choked up twice in his presser, where nobody seemed to be able to even ask him a question. Make no mistake:  this is a pain that you only feel when you commit yourself totally to a goal.  I have been there. Those with one foot in do not know it.

It is the cruel nature of sport. Somebody's heart had to be broken yesterday.

In the end, Miami was just a little better than us.

We knew all year that the offensive line was not elite.  Sometimes they were good, sometimes they were average and sometimes less than average.  Always resilient.  (Also, fighting through a severe mid-year disruption).

And we knew that we were not getting the production at WR that teams do in this day and age.

Those were decisive issues yesterday.  Miami won more battles on the line of scrimmage and BG could not establish a running game. Even removing sacks, most of our backs were under 4 yards per carry. Then, they double or even triple-teamed Fannin.  One time, I saw four guys around him.  He wasn't 100% and they were able to neutralize him.

So something had to be open...but we didn't have the WRs to take advantage.   Bazelak had a rough game...and so the offense sputtered and made victory an uphill climb the whole way.

The defense kept us in the game.  Two INTs.  Held Miami to zero first downs in the 3rd quarter--26 yards on 12 plays.

And finally BG gets a drive.  Late 3rd/early 4th. Fannin completes a stumbling TE pass to Gazerak, who makes a miracle catch to convert a 3rd and 2.

BG finally driving.  Levi Gazerak with two more catches, Johnson with a 22-yard run, and then Patterson the score.  FINALLY.  A 92-yard, 11-play drive that makes it 14-12.

11 minutes left in the game.

Second play of Miami's drive...BG blitzes, Gabbert steps up and hits a WR who gets behind our great defense when we just can't let that happen, and in one play it's 21-12 with 10:30 left and the game is essentially over.  BG never crossed their own 30 again.  Everything before it is erased.

There were bunches of play.  As mentioned, two INT for BG.  Bazelak threw one.  BG got a safety.  BG struggled badly with punting. There was a terrible no-call on PI against Fannin.  MU got the lucky catch of all time at the end of the first half when BG had cut the deficit to 2. There were only 3 penalties in the game.  

I was thrilled with the crowd.  The weather was appalling and every BG fan was 10 minutes from a warm house and a television.  Another reason to be heartbroken.  With us against OU, they might have sold out Ford Field.

Sigh.

More on the future to come.  There's a bowl game, almost for sure without Harold Fannin. Who knows what else will happen when the portal opens.  Coach Loeffler is entering the last year of his contract and the BG turnaround has drawn notice elsewhere.

For today?  Today is a heartbreaking day.

Happy Thanksgiving to the Falcon Nation

 

Preview of the Big Game

What is their body of work?

Miami is the traditional MAC power in football.  After Big Ben left, they went through some dark years--14 straight losing seasons--before Chuck Martin broke through in his sixth year with an 8-6 record.  The last two years have been excellent.  They are 13-2 in the last two years in the MAC and are the defending champions.

Since Martin arrived, the RedHawks are 5-2 against BG.  Jinks won one and Loeffler won the last game played at the Doyt.  Last year, Miami wiped BG out 27-0 in Oxford.

BG is a 2-point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 27 juniors and seniors, which is a young team in 2024.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +7 in MAC games, mostly in INT.  BG creates a new game by taking care of the ball.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Gabbert is a good QB.  PFF ranks him #10 and #7 as a runner.  He was third-team All-MAC last year, when he had a significantly better year.  He leads the MAC in passing efficiency.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are  #5 in scoring with 30.5 points per game but #1 in yards per play at 6.8.  BG's defense allows 15.4 points per game, which is tied for second with Miami.  The Falcons allow 4.6 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

Yes.  They are #3 at 5.3 yards per carry.  BG allows 3.7 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #5 in pass efficiency.  Gabbert is #7.  He has completed 57% of his passes, 15 TDs over 2INT and a stunning 15.3 yards per reception. Reggie Virgil is #1 in the MAC with 23 yards per reception.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 47% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  35% which is #9 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

They have only one empty trip in 25 attempts.  However, 11 of those were FGs.  Overall, the 4.96 is not great. Between the 3rd down and red zone, this is why their yards per play is way better than their scoring. BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip allowed. 

Do they protect the QB?

They have allowed sacks on 7.2% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7.8% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are tied for 2nd with BG at 15.4 PPG.  They lead the MAC allowing 4 yards per play.  BG scores 28. which is #6 and 5.7 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Yes. At 2.8 yards per carry, they are #1 in the MAC. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #7. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are 1st in passing efficiency defense.  They allow 56% completions, have 10 INT and 9.5 yards per completion. BG is #2 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They allow 41% which is #9.  BG converts 35%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 5.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.8 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

They do, they have sacks on 8.2% of passes. BG allows sacks on 8.6% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

While their kicker is a boomer, they are #7 in net punting. BG is #1.

Punt Return?

Middle of the pack

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 22 of 26 with a long of 51.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 26 (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

I'd say this is the biggest game played at the Doyt in terms of MAC play since the MAC title Big Ben game on December 4, 2023.  If you remove UT games and the Indiana G-O-G-O game, I think this is the biggest game we have had in a long time.  Reminds me a lot of the fat punter game.

Let's hope people come back to town.  I recall during Meyer I we had a great crowd for the day after Thanksgiving, but that was Toledo.  A big crowd would be great.  Will be cold.  Could snow.  

Just to be frank, Miami is the cause of a significant number of banana-peel moments in our history.  There was Hall-of-Famer Don Nehlen forgetting what down it was. A ridiculous rally in MBB that gave the Miami SID a heart attack. Fog Bowl.  The last grass game at the Doyt...think Charlie Brown FG.  We tried to make it go away by giving it a name---the Miami Whammy.  Still hasn't come too far.

In fact, until UT became a state school, Miami was our top rival.  They own the series with us.

For today, as mentioned, we are 2-point favorites.  You can see above that the game appears to be very evenly matched.  I think it will be low scoring and determined by one or two plays.

Like all football games, it will be decided up front. BG must run the ball and protect the QB.  Miami is really difficult to pass against, and we need to run the ball to open the offense up.  Same is true of them.  We have a defense that can compete with theirs.

I am really looking forward to the game.  We have waited a long time for this game.  Let's back the boys.,,,

Weber State preview

While the football team plays its biggest home game in 20 years or so, the MBB team will be in Tempe playing in an MTE, starting with Weber State.  Depending on the result, they will play Pepperdine or New Mexico State on Saturday.

The games won't be played in Arizona State's basketball arena, but in Mullet Arena, as pictured below.

No seriously.  Mullet is a 5,000 seat arena where the ASU ice hockey teams play, a G-league team, etc. The NHL Coyotes have played there as well.

The first opponent is Weber State. The Wildcats. They play in the Big Sky Conference, which is currently the #21 conference.  The MAC is currently #20.

It's WE-ber, not WEB-er.  The school was named after Weber County, where it is, and the county was named after a fur trader named John Henry Weber who was German and apparently said his name "VE-ber."

They have been to the NCAA tournament 16 times, most recently in 2016.  Coaching legend Dick Motta coached them to the 1968 tournament ...

Blue Ribbon had them #2 in the Big Sky.  The coaches had them 4th and the media had them 3rd.

The year is off to a tough start.  They had played a tough early schedule, standing at 2-4 in all games and 0-4 in D1 games.  That includes @Oregon State (#95, lose by 28), @Nevada (#36, lose by 30), @Hawaii (#191, OT loss), UC Irvine at home (#61, 6-point loss). Their kenpom has fallen from 175 to 230, mostly because of the margin of defeat in those first two games and the fact that they are winless when D1 games only are counted.

That's the #19 schedule to date in the country, discounting non-D1 games.  CMU has played the toughest schedule in the MAC, #34.

I suspect Weber State will show up pretty hungry.

Their adjusted efficiency (for schedule, road games, etc) is 1.04 on offense, which is below the national average.  They are allowing 1.09, which is poor.  

Their adjusted tempo is 68, which is pretty slow.

Looking at offense, their biggest weakness has been shooting.  They are making 44% on 2FG and 31% on 3FG, both well below average.  Combined, they are #308 in shooting out of 364.  Their turnovers are a little better than average and their offensive rebounding a little worse.  They get to the line a lot (#115)  but make only 66% (#294).  14% of their shots have been blocked, which is a lot.  Even worse is BG, which has 16.8% of its shots blocked, among the 10 worst in the country.

Defensively, things are a little worse. They allow an unbelievable 43% on 3FG, which is #358 in the country. They are #221 in defending the 2FG. They don't force turnovers (#256), are poor on their own boards (#223) and give up a staggering amount of FTs (#339).

Their leading scorer is Blaise Threatt, a 6'3" Sr. G with 19 PPG on 51% 2FG shooting and 33% 3FG shooting. He's their only double-figure scorer.  They have a few guys around 8 PPG.  One player to watch is Miguel Tomley, who caused a whole Big Sky controversy over transferring in the conference from Idaho State.

Dyson Koehler is their top rebounder, at 6'7".  They have a 6'1" C from Montengro.  (Vucinic.  Why are there no guards from Central Europe?)

They have 3 Canadians, one Englishman, one Finn, 2 Serbians, one Montenegran and one Japanese player.

So off we go.  Kenpom gives Weber State a 60% chance of winning.