BG MBB Preview: RedHawks.

Next up come the Miami RedHawks, they of the 21 MAC titles but none in 17 years.  Unbelievably, BG is a 4.5 point favorite.

Miami has certainly struggled. In 2011, Charlie Coles had them 11-5 in MAC play.  For the next 11 seasons, through John Cooper and Jack Owens, Miami has had one winning season in MAC play, and that was 8-9.  

They went about 25 miles down the road and chose Travis Steele to be their new coach...only 15 days after he was deposed from the Xavier job.  He has changed things in Oxford---they famously played a slow style with a ton of screens and man-man defense.  He has shifted them to pack line defense and a more spread offense.

Normally, that would cause a transition issue, but in today's world you are starting completely over and that was the case here.  Dae Dae Grant and Myja White transferred, leaving Miami with only a couple returning guys.

Falcon fans can rest easy.  Dalonte Brown is playing in Montenegro, where his gym is 4,926 miles from center court at the Stroh. Just about far enough.

This is the 149th time we are playing Miami and they have won 89 of the games.

Despite their recent struggles, they have won 7 of the last 10 against BG, a 2-2 record in the Stroh over that time.  BG won the game last year at home but Miami beat BG by 16 last year in Oxford during BG's 6-game losing streak late last year.

So here is how this chart looks.  Eesh.  BG is #3 in offensive efficiency and #11 in defensive efficiency. Miami is a little more settled....at #9 in offense and #6 with their pack line.  BG has allowed at least one below average team to go off on them...and we don't know who will be in uniform...but you've got a pretty good contrast.

Steele also said they were going to play faster. The Coles teams were famous for glacial play (about 58 possessions a game), but Steele's team plays at 72 possessions a game, slightly more than last year and just a little bit less than BG.

Miami is an average shooting team...and everything else on offense they do poorly.  They are 11th in turnovers, 10th in offensive rebounding in getting to the line...but these are all things BG has done poorly on the defensive end to date.

They try 37% of their FGAs from 3FG, which is about average. They are very poor from 3FG, at 29% but 3rd in the MAC from 2FG at 53%.  They make 75% of their FTs, which is #4 in the conference. 

When it flips the other way, you see a BG team which is scoring and shooting well, lost as they are being outscored.  BG leads the MAC in 3-point shooting and is #4 in 2FGs. Miami is average defensively....they are a little bit above average against the shot and #2 at defending the 3FG. They are average at forcing turnovers and on the boards, but they foul A LOT.  Last in the MAC. Their opponents shoot only 66% from the line.  Pure luck but it helps them. BG makes 70% of FTs, which is OK but not great.

Miami had to bring in a bunch of guys and they did.

Their leading scorer is Anderson Mirambeaux, a Cleveland State transfer who sounds like he will someday be the Governor of Louisiana. He is actually from the Dominican Republic.  He is a pretty good-sized fella. According to Blue Ribbon, he has weighed as much as 365, got down to 325 at Miami.  The roster says 305. He is 6'8".  He's scoring 16 PPG on 56% shooting.  He also averages 8.2 RPG, #6 in the MAC.

Their second-leading scorer is Mekhi Lairy, their one returning starter.  He is scoring 15 PPG, on 48% 2FG shooting and 30% 3FG shooting.  He's also #2 in the MAC with 5.4 assists per game and #6 in A/T ratio. 

Morgan Safford, who transferred from Wofford, is scoring 15.6 PPG and adding 7.6 RPG. He's 6'5" and a guard. He makes 53% from 2FG and 35% from 3FG. 

For BG, the question is who will be on the court.  Prior to the WMU game, BG seemed to have a set up that was working.  They especially need Metheny.  Metheny, Elsasser, Towns and Lightfoot missed the last game.  Let's hope everyone is healthy and feeling better. BG is still in the running to make Cleveland, but can't afford to miss wins against lower teams in the MAC on our floor.  Beyond personnel, BG needs to amp up the effort, especially on defense.