RedHawk Preview

So, BG did end up with a game Saturday....Akron couldn't play Miami and so BG picked Miami up at the Stroh to replace a game they lost earlier.

BG is 0-2 in MAC play and this is a home opener.  You'd hate to go 0-3....the last 10 years, adjusted for the 20 game schedule, most often you'd need to be 9-11 to make the final 8 and go to Cleveland...maybe 8.  At 0-3, there's plenty of time, but you're narrowing the odds to get to 9 wins.

Miami was picked to be #6 in the MAC this year, one spot ahead of BG.  They are 7-5 overall but 4-5 in D1 games and 1-0 in the MAC, winning by 10 @ UB.  They have a good win @Georgia Tech, but also lost @ Western Illinois and at home to Bellarmine.  

Miami beat BG twice last year and has won 6 of the last 8 in the series.

The RedHawks play at 68 possessions a game, which is above average and slower than BG usually plays (73, #18 in the nation).

Miami is a very good offensive team.  They are scoring 1.11 points per possession, which is #27 in the country.  They are, however, the #308 ranked defensive team.  BG has the same pattern, though less extreme.  BG is #106 on offense and #259 on defense.  Both teams are around .500, which usually means roughly scoring what you allow.

Miami's strength is turnovers.  They are #5 in the nation at taking care of the ball. You can pair that with above-average shooting, average offensive rebounding and while they don't get to the line very often, they are making 80% this year, which is #8 in the country.  BG allows an above-average number of free throws, something this will want to avoid tomorrow.  MU shoots the 3FG and 2FG well, but are better at the 3FG and take 40% of their FGAs from 3FG, which is above average (38%).

For its part, BG is easy to shoot against, does force some turnovers, is ineffective on the defensive boards and gives up a lot of FTs.  BG allows 35% on 3FGs, which is worse than average and about what Miami shoots.

As you can see, Miami does not defend the shot well.  BG is, as usual, a less than average shooting team.  Miami is terrible defending the 3FG (#317) and this is an opening for BG.  The Falcons take good care of the ball and are a really good offensive rebounding team.  BG also gets to the line and for its part has shot FTs well at 77%.

They are led by Dae Dae Grant, scoring 16.7 PPG on 53% 2FG shooting and 32% 3FG shooting.  He's made 88% of his FTs and added 4.2 RPF.  He also leads the team with 53 assists.  He was third-team All-MAC last year as a SO and all-FR the year before that.

Mekhi Lairy is scoring 14.8 PPG, on 41% and 38% shooting.  He is 91% at the line.  He was all-FR too but has not been all-MAC since.

Dalonte Brown from Toledo Bowsher is scoring 11.8 PPG on 495 and 445 3FG shooting (#107 in the country).  He leads the team with 7.3 RPG.  Precious Ayah scores 10.2 PPG on 65% 2FG shooting.  He adds 5.6 RPG.

The RedHawks are one team that has not brought in transfers to supplement the team.

This appears to be an evenly matched game and one the Falcons need to deliver at home to get the MAC season on track.