MBB Defeated Again

 BG MBB fell again last night, their fifth straight.

We lost to Queens University of Charlotte, a team ranked higher than us on kenpom.  They were a DII team last year, but this is a well-coached team with good players.  They beat Marshall (picked #6 in Sun Belt) and are #206 in kenpom.  They also beat Morgan State, who we play Saturday.

The issue isn't Queens...only 5 teams in the MAC have a better kenpom today...the issue is why is BG ranked #286, our lowest in the history of the ranking.  Why aren't we beating the #206 team in the country on our floor?  It doesn't matter if it is Queens, Norfolk State (similarly ranked, also on our schedule) or High Point...whatever.

I listened to Todd Walker and Coach Huger after the game.  They discussed what appeared to me to be the difference in the game...which is that we don't finish at the rim and Queens did.

The Royals made 51% of their 2FGs and BG made 46%.  You could see it...BG just doesn't make what Coach Orr called "zero footers."  We just don't make those shots and it costs us games.

Here's why.  We are a terrible 3-point shooting team. The NCAA average is 33% and we have made under 30% for each of the last 5 games. Last night it was 19%.  We are #327 in the country in 3FG shooting.

Which means we need to score with 2FGs. Across the NCAA, 38% of shots are 3FGs.  BG takes 34% and took 30% last night.  That's logical, given our lack of success from 3FG.

To succeed that way, you need to make 2FGs at a good clip.  The NCAA average is just under 50% and as mentioned, we made 46%.  We have been over the NCAA average only once this season.  And that's the average...to succeed with our shot mix you'd need to be above average.

We had this same dynamic when Orr was here...heavy 2FG focus and not making them at a high rate.

To illustrate, Ayers, Towns and Turner were 8 of 27 on 2FGs last night.

The other issue is just winning basketball.  After playing a lackluster first half, BG actually played with some energy in the second half.  We trailed by 9 at the half, but several times got the game within 1 point in the second half, but never tied or took the lead.  There was always an untimely turnover or missed shot and then Queens would come down and score.

But the key illustration came with :39 left.  We are down 3.  Get a stop and we have a shot to win the game.  Apparently, there was some confusion and one of our players thought we needed to foul and did foul and that was it.  We lost by 6.

Coach talked about it after the game.  We need to be smarter than that, he said.  Claims it was talked about in the huddle.  

I would just ask this....would Kent, Akron or Toledo have done that?

It's discouraging. That's 5 losses in a row...yes a couple tough games but winnable home games as well.  The schedule gets even softer from now until the end of the year...and it's possible BG only loses once from now until then.  It's also possible BG hits conference play 5-8 with 3 D1 wins.

MBB Preview: Queens University

So, if you never heard of Queens University until they popped onto our MBB schedule, that would make two of us.

They are located in Charlotte and are the Royals.

It was a woman's school that changed its name to Queens in 1912 and then started to admit men after World War II.

It is a small school, with 2,400 students.  

Like USI, they are in their first year of D1 competition, and will be eligible for the NCAA tournament after Ohio State goes through two more Presidents. 

They qualified for the DII tournament 15 times, making the final four twice, most recently in 2018.  Last season they made the regional final.  Their previous coach, Bart Lundy, is now coach at Milwaukee.  Grant Leonard, his longtime assistant, is now head coach.  He got off to a rough start, getting a DWI right as the season was beginning and was suspended for the first five games.

They play in the ASUN, where they were picked #13 in the pre-season poll. 

They are 5-2 this year, but 3-2 against D1 competition. They beat Marshall (115), Green Bay (358) and Morgan State (266), with losses to LaSalle (201) and George Mason (130). Their kenpom is 211.  Kenpom gives BG a 51% chance to win.  Queens is 0-2 on the road.

They play at 67 possessions per game, which is slower than the NCAA average.  As you can see below, they are a strong offensive team--top 100 in D1.  BG, as we know, struggles to defend.  On the other side, they are not great defensively and BG is not great at scoring.  I guess you could look at it like we know how the left side will go....about 72 points per the Royals and can BG get to 72.

They combine great shooting and great offensive rebounding to get their points. They shoot a lot of 3FGs--44% of their shots.  They aren't great--32% of them are made, below national average.  However, they make 56% of their 2FGs, which is #38 in the country.  They are #18 on the offensive boards, which makes up for a terrible record on turnovers. They do get to the line.

They are not great on defense. They are easy to shoot on, don't force turnovers and are pretty average on the offensive boards.  They don't give up many FTs.  They are more vulnerable to the 2FG.  The question here is whether BG can make shots.  BG is #310 in the nation in EFG.

Individually, their leading scorer is Kenny Dye, who scores 16.7 PPG on 57% on 2FG and 42% on 3FG. He also averages 5 assists per game. He's a 6'0" SR G.

AJ McKee is their second leading scorer at 12.6 PPG on 56% and 33% shooting. He's a 6'2" G.

Jay'Den Turner is scoring 11.9 PPG on 51% and 27% shooting and a 7.1 RPG.  He's a 6'5" Jr.

Gavin Rains gets 9.5 RPG and is number 64 i the country in offensive rebounding. He's a 6'7" Jr.

Look, this is similair to USI.  This team is new to D1 but brings a track record of success from DII, have DI wins this year and should give BG all it can handle tomorrow.  That's not a great statement about where we are, but it is an accurate expectation.

Past and Future Opponent Land

There are 79 bowl eligible teams right now, with UB playing for eligibility against Akron.  So 2 or 3 five win teams with make a bowl.  MAC has 5 bowl eligible teams right now, could have 6.

CBS has BG playing Utah St. in the Potato Bowl

UCLA--(9-3) Beat Cal

EKU--(7-5)  The magic run of the Colonels ended in the first round of the FCS playoffs

Marshall--(8-4) The "could win out" Herd beat Georgia State

Mississippi State--(8-4) Won the Egg Bowl

Akron--(2-9) Blast NIU.  Suspect maybe the Huskies didn't feel like playing 

Buffalo--(5-6) Lost to Kent

Miami--(6-6) Beat BSU

CMU--(4-8) Lost to EMU

WMU--(5-7) Beat UT

KSU--(5-7) Beat CMU

UT--(7-5) Lost to WMU

OU--(9-3) Beat BG

East Vs. West: East 11, West 7

MAC vs P5: 2-19

MAC vs. G5: 6-9

MAC vs FCS: 10-2

Rough Afternoon at the Stroh for MBB

 It is tough to imagine a rougher start for BG's MBB team.  They are now 2-4 and on a 4-game losing streak where no game was closer than 9.

I talked about Southern Indiana in the preview.  This is a decent team, would be competitive in the MAC etc.  I just didn't want people to think that it was a walk-over.

Having said that...big picture, our program should have a team that beats them in our arena.  That this team lost to them was not a surprise, but we should have a team that beats Southern Indiana at home.

The first half wasn't too bad.  BG led for 11 minutes and trailed by 3 at the break, with the Falcon's largest lead at 7.

USI bolted out on an 11-4 run to build the lead to 10.  From there, it was never close again. BG got it to 7 once but most of the time it wavered between 8 and 12 points and BG never made a serious run at the Screaming Eagles.

It was a tough watch.  BG scored .8 points per possession, which was what they did against OSU this year.   Since 2002, BG has won once when scoring at this level. (2013, EMU).  It is BG's worst offensive game in the losing streak, during which we have been at our below 1 point per possession in each game.

BG shot the ball terribly. They took 40% of their shots from 3FG and made 29%--their best 3FG shooting game during the losing streak.  They made 39% from 2FG, worst of the season.  Then, add in a poor turnover game, below average offensive rebounding and not getting to the line much and then only making 62%, and you have a terrible offensive performance.

We are #243 out of 357 in offensive efficiency.  We are #306 in shooting, with #274 in 2FG and #295 in 3FG. We are #319 in getting to the line.  All of which are no surprise.

USI didn't have a great game, at .97 points per possession.  They outshot BG by a lot and made 47% of their 2FGs, which while not great was good enough.  THey also took better care of the ball, neutralized rebounding and FTs ended even.

Chandler Turner led BG with 12 points. He was 2 of 5 from 2FG and 2 of 4 from 3FG.  He also added 7 rebounds. Sam Towns had 10 on 5 of 6 shooting and 5 rebounds in a head-scratching 24 minutes. Ayers had 10 on 3 of 7 and 1 of 4 shooting.

Agee, who had been starting, had 7 rebounds in 14 minutes but missed all 6 of his shots. Curtis and Metheny struggled with their shots as well.

Just a rough effort.  BG just doesn't seem to have enough good players and lacks a strategy for putting them in a position to succeed.  Let's hope things improve or it will be a long season.

Southern Indiana MBB Preview

So, the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles are coming to town.

First, a look at who these guys are because they are fairly new to us.

USI is outside Evansville with about 10,000 students.  Founded in 1965, it started as a branch campus of Indiana State and became its own unit in 1985. 

They are re-classifying to DI from DII, but will not be eligible for the NCAAs until 26-27.  They are playing in the OVC.  This is their first year in DI.

They were no joke in DII.  They made the tournament 29 times from 1978-2021, won it once and made the final four...four times, most recently in 2019.  They made it last year and won once before bowing out.

They are picked 7th in the OVC, with one player on the All-OVC pre-season team.

The OVC is the 28th-ranked conference.  They are often higher, like in the low 20s.

They are coached by Stan Gouard, in his second year.  He played at USI and was a two-time DII player of the year. He coached Indianapolis in GLIAC for 12 years and won 66% of his games, including numerous tournament appearances and one sweet sixteen.

They did have NCAA violations in 2009 or so and once had a post-season ban imposed by GLIAC.

They are 2-3 for the year, with 1 DI win.  They are, however, representing. They beat Southern Illinois (#98) by 18. They lost to Missouri by 6, St. Bonaventure by 14, and Notre Dame by 12.  Their kenpom is #204 and kenpom has them with a 51% chance of winning tomorrow.

They like to play fast. At 74 possessions, they like to play faster than BG does at about 71.  So if you like the pace, it will be a good game.

As we will see, USI shoots the ball really well.  However, they are just average at overall offensive efficiency--no better than BG.  They are not great on defense, where they pretty much match BG.  You can see here why it is expected to be a close game.  Because of the "Gotham Classic" we have a higher proportion of common opponents than normal.

So, USI is a really strong shooting team matched up against a BG team that is easy to shoot against. USI takes 41% of their FGA from 3FG, which is a lot. They make 39%, which is #35 in the country. They are below average on 2FGs.  They end up average on scoring because they turn the ball over a lot, they don't get offensive rebounds, and while they get to the line, they only make 67%.  

As you can see, BG doesn't really force turnovers, so we will have to see how we take advantage of them being prone to turnovers. If you see the Screaming Eagles taking care of the ball and making shots, you know we are in trouble.

USI is less good on defense.  Whether BG takes advantage of that is another matter.  This is a typical BG offensive profile.  Below average shooting...and below 30% on 3FG for the year...combined with taking good care of the ball and being good on the offensive boards.  We are not getting to the line, which I see as a reflection of impact offensive playmakers. We do make 74% when we get there.

I have to say, I am worried about whether there is a path for us to be a better-than-average offensive team.

They returned 3 starters from last year.  Jelani Simmons, their pre-season OVC player, is their leading scorer.  He's 6'5" and a SR. from Columbus. He's scoring 14.5 PPG, shooting 68% on 2FG and 43% of 3FG. 

Jacob Polakovich is the #2 scorer.  He is a 6'9" Sr. from Grand Rapids, MI. He scores 11.7 PPG on 68% shooting and 8 rebounds per game.

Trevor Lakes is also scoring 12 PPG. He is 6'8" and a grad transfer from Nebraska, where he was not really a contributor.  He played for Gouard at Indianapolis before that.  He is shooting 52% from 3FG, where almost all his shots come.  He adds 5 RPG.

Their other double-figure scorer is Isaiah Swope.  He's a 5'10 SO.  He scores 11.4 PPG, but is less efficient, making 50% on 2FG and 22% on 3FG. He shoots a lot.  He also has 5 assists per game, with a 1.7 ratio.  They have another guard off the bench with a negative ratio.

So, well-distributed scoring.  Some good length.  An experienced team.  This is a quality team.  But, to make Cleveland, we need to beat teams like this.  At home, only a win projects to BG having a successful season.

Happy Thanksgiving to the Falcon Nation

Wishing you peace and well-being this Thanksgiving.

Last 10 minutes Doom Falcons in Shadow of Dome

So, just some quick notes on the BG-Notre Dame game, which I only saw out of the corner of my eye.

BG kept the game within reach for the first 30 minutes or so.  The Irish lead was only 2 at the half and BG actually led by 1 point with about 11 minutes left to play. It was tied at 61 with 10 minutes left.  From there, the laughter turned to sadness, as the Irish closed the game on a 21-5 run to win going away.  Anytime you score 10 points in five minutes, you are going to have a hard time winning.

The game unfolded as exactly expected. The game was played slow, like the Irish like it...at 66 possessions.  BG played only one game slower than that last year. And the Irish played highly efficient offense.  Remember, we are talking 82 points on 66 possessions, which is 1.24 per possession, almost always a winning number. 

BG had an average (by the national average, not their average) night at 1 point per possession.

As you can see, ND had a lethal combo.  They shot very well and they took very good care of the ball.  Very hard to lose when things look this way.  Almost two-thirds of their field goals were 2FGs and they made 67% of those and then made a respectable 35% on 3FGS.  They also made 13 of 16 from the line.

As for BG, they made a season high 51% on 2FGs but continued to struggle from 3FG, making 29%.  Meanwhile, BG lost the turnovers, did not get anything going on the offensive boards and was -5 at the line.

Individually, the first thing is that Sam Towns started ahead of Rashaun Agee.  Curtis led BG was 14 points on 2 of 5 2FG shooting and 2 of 4 from 3FG.  He had 1 assist and 5 turnovers.  Agee came of the bench for 13 in 21 minutes, making 5 of 10 and 0 of 2 and adding 9 rebounds.  Ayers III also had 13, on 6 of 12 and 0-2 shooting.

Notre Dame played their starters 92% of the game.

If it seems like BG isn't getting very many assists, that would be true.  On average in the NCAA, there are assists on 50% of FGs.  BG is at 40%, which is #333 in the country.

So, next up is Southern Indiana.  They lost to ND by 12 and the Bonnies by 14.  Saturday's game has been moved to 4 to give people a chance to watch OSU-MICH and still make it to the game.

OU Dismantles "Out of Gas" BG

Well, and up and down regular season came to a down conclusion last night in Athens, as OU completely outplayed and dismantled Bowling Green on their way to a 38-14 win.  

Give OU credit.  That's a really solid team.  They lost their best player (and their QB) and they won the game anyway.  They executed their game plan--they completed only ten passes--but they ate up time, made 21 first downs, averaged 19 yards a completion when they did pass.

They beat BG in every phase of the game.  They just destroyed the BG offensive line.  The Falcons could not run the ball or pass it.  They took Hilaire out of the game.

Of course, the offense could hardly get on the field.  BG ran 53 plays and OU ran 75. 

Coach said after the game that BG just "ran out of gas, pure and simple."  That's a good description of what I think we all saw.  BG tackled really poorly and didn't seem to fly to the ball the way they have in other games.  You saw that on run plays, QB screens and some WR screens.

It's disappointing.  Coach says we need to learn to play two tough games in a row. Which would apparently be true.  Look, we were thrilled to win Toledo and to have a shot this late in the year, but I think we're not a championship team yet.  We have made progress in that direction, but we are not there yet.  When you look across at the other sideline last night, you can see what one looks like.

There was one more odd thing.  Coach talked about McDonald playing with a concussion.  There are a few weird things.  What I have transcribed below didn't make the Blade story, nor did it make the official summary of the press conference that BGSU issues.  The other odd thing is that he refers to McDonald as "the quarterback."  Just weird.

The quarterback was concussed.  Figured it out halfway through.  He was doing things that he hasn't done ever.  He's a tough son of a gun and he knows how to answer the questions. We figured it out.  He really struggled.

He came off and I would ask him, listen, what was your progression there and he could spit it out.  He's been doing this for seven years. It just got to the point where he was reading the wrong side and you knew something was wrong.  I asked him a thousand questions, the docs were involved and they figured out that he was really, really struggling.  There was three plays that he's done since he was a freshman at Boston College and did completely the wrong thing.  It was nothing about ability, he was struggling.

Well, next up is the bowl game.  We will know in a week and half what we are up to.  I haven't seen anything about which game we will go to or how many bowl eligible teams there are going to be.

So, disappointing, but we are who our record says we are:  a team capable of playing really well and really poorly and needing, in the coach's words "to take the next step."  A 6-6 season is not a success.  Whether it is a stop on the road to eventual success has yet to be seen. 

Football Verbal

We haven't had any news in quite a while on the recruiting front.  It's December 21 this year, so less than a month.  This whole world has changed, though, with the portal.  And the portal may be changing. You have two pipelines for talent now.  On the other hand, everyone has to be somewhere before they can transfer.  It will be interesting to see if the portal remains as busy in the past.  Certainly, guys are going to chase NLIs.  I think some of the guys who left MAC teams might have found themselves with less than they thought.

Having said that, BG has a new verbal.  His name is Tracy Revels.  He is from Texarkana and is a safety.

pic.twitter.com/zZeXxSe95f

— d1_Tracy🏈3⭐️ (@D1Tracy) November 22, 2022

247 lists him as a 3-star recruit with offers from UTSA, Troy and 2 FCS schools.  In fact, he was once committed to UTSA.  He listed BG and Troy as his "final 2."

He's 6'1" and 175 pounds. 

Beyond that, there is not a lot of information on him.  Welcome to the Falcons, Tracy.

25 Questions that go, "Here, Kitty, Kitty, Kitty."

What is their body of work?

This is the golden age of Bobcat football.  In the 20 years before Frank Solich arrived, they had 2 winning seasons.  They had not won the MAC since 1968.  They were simply terrible, most of the time. Starting in 2009, they had 13 straight non-losing seasons.  When Frank left, Tim Albin had a rough year last year but this year they are back.  They are 8-3/6-1. 

Their losses are @Penn State, @Iowa State and @Kent. They have won 6 straight since the Kent game.

OU has won 5 of the last 6 against BG, with BG winning last year 21-10.

How experienced are they?

They have 29 juniors and above on the roster, which is a good amount.

Who are their nationally ranked players?

Kurtis Rourke #8 in completion percentage, #8 in passing efficiency, #9 in passing yards, #11 in total offense, #7 in yards per attempt.

Sam Wilgusz is #6 in receiving TDs.

James Bostic is #10 in yards per reception.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +9, which is the hallmark of a team exceeding expectations.

Offense

How is their QB play? (MAC Only from here on in)

Well, Kurtis Rourke is the top QB in the MAC.

Kurtis Rourke also left the previous game injured and while no one knows if he will play, a lot of people in Athens have their doubts.

So, if Rourke plays, he's the best in the MAC.  You can see his rankings above.

The backup is CJ Harris, a R-SO from West Bloomfield. They did finish the win over Ball State with Harris in the game--it was 15-15 from their on in.  He doesn't have the numbers, he's 5 of 12 for the year passing.

There's no way around it.  With Harris, their chances of winning are way less--but they could still do it.

What is their scoring and yards per play

OU is #2 in scoring and #1 in yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

They are #3 in the MAC in yards per rush.

Do they pass the ball?

They lead the MAC in passing efficiency.,.with Rourke.

How is their run/pass balance?

They have a very strong run identity, with runs on 54% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They are #3 in the MAC at 51%.

Do they score in the red zone?

They are OK at 4.8 points per trip. 

Do they protect the quarterback?

Yes they do. Sacks on 4.4% of pass attempts.  Big challenge for the BG pass rush.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #2 in scoring defense and #10 in yards per play.  This is an incredible gap.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are ok.  They are #6 in yards per rush against.

Can they be passed on?

They are 8th in defensive pass efficiency.  They allow 64% completions.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

Yes.  They are #6 at 36.8

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are decent at 4.9 points per posssession.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not bad, sacks on 6.7% of opponent attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 9th in net punting. No TDs allowed and no blocks.

Punt Return?

They get 3 yards a return and no blocks.

Placekicking? 

All games, he's pretty good.  18 of 21 overall, 16 of 17 inside 40.  Long of 55.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25. No TDs.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 24, 1 TD.

Intangible Miscellany

So, OU is a good team and this is a big game.  Dave Briggs had a nice story today about the tie breakers if BG wins...because Buffalo will probably play one fewer game.  He was in full irritation mode, this time drawing out the neck veins of MAC Commission Jon Steinbrecher.

OU is a 6.5 point favorite.  Honestly, when you look at the numbers, this is a team riding a great QB and a huge turnover differential.  If Rourke doesn't play or is limited and BG takes care of the ball, and executes like it did last week, this game can be highly competitive.  This is not a great defensive team and if BG can execute on offense, we have a shot at being in this game.

And then we can worry about the tie breakers.

It won't be easy.  You come off a rivalry game with high emotions and a big finish, and now you head on the road again against a good team and you have to pull that kind of effort up again.  It will largely be a test of leadership to get the focus back.  With the win, BG hits 6-2 in MAC play, something none of us thought was possible.

So thrilling to be anticipating a game in November.  And to have a chance to win the division title, after all that.  LFG.

On to Notre Dame....

On to South Bend....

So, last year, the Irish made it into the NCAA tournament for the first time in four years.  They won a play-in game and then a regular game and then lost to Texas Tech.  

They lost 3 starters from that team. That includes Blake Wesley (All-ACC and all-rookies) who went pro and is with the Spurs, and all-ACC Honorable mention Paul Atkinson, along with 9 ppg G Prentis Hubb. 

They brought in four new guys, ONLY ONE OF WHICH WAS A TRANSFER.

Notre Dame has 6 graduate students on the roster.  That's got to be interesting, as players attempted to balance basketball with a dive into the theoretical side of academic study.  They are the #4 most experienced team in D1.

In the ACC poll, they were picked #6 and #7 in Blue Ribbon.

They are 4-0.  They have beaten Radford, Youngstown State, Southern Indiana and Lipscomb, all at home.  While there are no huge wins in there, they are all teams with a better kenpom than BG's.

This is the 8th time BG and Notre Dame have played, and the first since 1971.  Both of BG's wins came about a month apart in early 1963.

Notre Dame is interesting. They play at a very slow pace (66 possessions per game) but they are highly efficient.  They score 1.19 points per possession, which is #15 in D1.  They are really good shooters, #10 at 60% EFG.  That's with 44% of their FGs from 3FG, and they make 40%, which is #33 in D1.  THey also make 60% of their 2FGs.  They only turn the ball over on 15.5%, which is also really good.  That's a lethal combo.  Like many teams who control tempo, they don't crash the offensive boards, but they are OK at getting to the line and they are making 85% of their free throws to date this year.

Defensively, they are not great.  They allow 1.1 points per possession, which is #286 in the country. They give up 54% EFG shooting, with below average results on 2FG and 3FG.  They are second-to-last in the nation in forcing turnovers.  They are really good on the defensive boards and teams do not get to the line against them.

From an individual perspective, they play a very tight six-man rotation.  Their top 6 guys have played 98% of their minutes.  Their starters all average between 33 and 38 minutes a game.

So, not surprisingly, they are all scoring in double figures.

Nate Laszewksi, 19 PPG on 64% 2FG and 47% from 3FG, 85% FTs.  Also, 10.3 RPG.  He's 6'10".

Dane Goodwin, 16.5 PPG, 58% from 2FG and 56% from 3FG. 100% on 9 FTs.  He's a 6'6" G.

Trey Wertz, 15.3 PPG, 86% on 2FG, 40% on 3FGs, 78% FTs, 3.5 APG.  He's a 6'5" G.

JJ Starling is scoring 11.8 PPG, but at 43% on 2FG and 40% on 3FG. He's a 6'4" G.  (Also, his sister was the FBI agent who solved the Buffalo Bill case.)

Cormac Ryan, is scoring 10.8 PPG, 50% on 2FGs and 25% on 3FGs.  94% on FTs. He's a 6'5" G.

Again, an interesting approach.  The matchup is not great for BG....this is a long team that scores effectively, and you'd have to wonder if BG can create enough offense to compete with them.

Anthony Solomon, Notre Dame's Associate Coach, was assistant at BG 1989-1992 

Past and Future Opponent Land

UCLA--(8-3) Lost to USC

EKU--(7-4)  The indomitable Colonels beat Kennesaw State. Made FCS tournament.

Marshall--(7-4) The "could win out" Herd beat Georgia Southern

Mississippi State--(7-4) Beat E. Tennessee State

Akron--(1-9) Postponed

Buffalo--(5-5) Postponed

Miami--(5-6) Beat NIU

CMU--(4-7) Lost to WMU

WMU--(4-7) Beat CMU

KSU--(4-7) Lost to EMU

UT--(7-4) We beat them

OU--(8-3) Beat Ball State

East Vs. West: East 9, West 7

MAC vs P5: 2-19

MAC vs. G5: 6-9

MAC vs FCS: 10-2

Falcon MBB Loses to Bonnies

BG Men's basketball lost at St. Bonaventure yesterday in a game the Bonnies largely controlled from wire to wire.  BG led only for about two minutes and the game was only tied twice.  It's a tough place to play, with the #50 home-court advantage in college basketball, and the predicted #8 team in the #10 conference was just better than the #9 predicted team in the #18 conference.

BG did not quit.  A 13-0 run put the Bonnies up by 20 with about 14 left in the second half.  BG chipped away and had the lead to 9 with about 8 minutes left.  But Banks III made a 3, block a shot on the defensive end and then came down and hit another 3FG to make the lead 15 again in 1 minute of action.

It was over 10 until about 2 minutes left, BG dipped it to 9 again but it was over and there was an 81-68 final.

It was a 71 possession game, which is decent for BG.  The Falcons continue to struggle to score, with the clear issue being shooting.  BG had .96 points per possession, their third game under 1 per possession in 4 outings this year.  Their only representative offensive game was Oakland. This was their worst shooting game of the season, but those three poor games have all been below 45% EFG.  The national average is 50%.

BG shot clearly focused on shooting 2FGs.  They shot only 25% of their FGs from 3FG.  They were only in that range a couple times last year.  To do that, you need to make 2FGs, though, and BG made 48%, which is still below average.  And they made 16.7% of the 3FGs they did attempt.  They are 8-42 from 3 in their last two games.  As you can see, they won the turnover battle, held their own on the boards and was -10 on FTs and that adds up to the loss you see.

BG gave up 1.14 points per possession, with the Bonnies taking 52% of their FGAs from 3 and making over 40%.

Individually, the story of the game was Darryl Banks III, the St. Peter's transfer.  He never left the floor, had 34 points on 3 of 5 shooting from 2FG and 7 of 11 from 3FG, 6 rebounds and 4 blocked shots, if that would interest you.

Ayers III was BG's leading scorer again.  He had 18 on 8 of 12 and 0 of 3 shooting, plus 2 of 5 at the line and 7 rebounds. Samari Curtis had 13 on 5 of 11 and 1 of 3 shooting and 4 assists.  Metheny had 10 on 2 of 4 and 2 of 8 shooting and 3 assists. Chandler Turner had 10 and 5 rebounds in 30 minutes off the bench.

Agee battled foul trouble and only played 11 minutes and BG had really rough shooting off the bench (other than Turner.)   They were 3-15.

Anthony McComb III played 5 minutes in his first regular season game.

So, BG now 2-2 and heading to Notre Dame on Tuesday. 

MBB Preview: St. Bonaventure

So, the 2-1 Falcons head to Olean, New York to take on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The Bonnies represent a story that I fear will become more common in the coming years.  This has been a really strong program.  They were 16-5 in the pandemic year and ended with a kenpom of 32.  Then last year they were 23-10, lost in the first round of the A10 tournament but made the NIT semi-finals. They finished with a kenpom of 78.

As they say in "Behind the music," that's where the laughter turned to sadness.  One player went pro, two players NIL'd to Iowa State, one to Florida and one to Alabama.  THEN, to make matters worse, all the reserves transferred because they were worried they would be stuck behind the original starters.

So, they have 9 new players and two redshirt freshmen elevating to the main team. 

So. transfers from Holy Cross, St. Peter's, Hartford, Pitt, Morgan State and Farleigh Dickinson and five outright freshmen.

This is the sixth meeting.  BG leads the series 3-2.  The teams have not met since 1998, when the Bonnies won in Olean.  The first meeting was 1971, which was my first Falcon basketball game, which BG won.  Just sayin'.

The offical A10 pre-season poll had the Bonnies 10th and Blue Ribbon picked them 8th.

Nonetheless, they started the year with a kenpom of 119, which would put them in the top third of the MAC. They are off to a 1-2 start.  They beat St. Francis (PA) (315) but lost to Canisius (292) in OT and South Dakota State (118).

The only home game was St. Francis.

They play a slower tempo than BG at 68 per game. On offense, they are scoring 1.01 points per possession, just above the D-1 average of 1 point per possession.  On its side, BG is allowing 1.06 per possession, which is #304 in the country. They are a below average shooting team from 2FG and 3FG, but take good care of the ball and are good on the defensive boards. They don't get to the line very much and are well below average in making FTs.  Somehow that all works out to being slightly above average on offense.

Defensively, they are good at .98 points per possession. They are a little above average defending 2FG and 3FG.  They are #87 in the country in forcing turnovers and they are also good on the defensive boards.  They are #346 in allowing FTs.

They have two players scoring in double figures, but not efficiently.  Kyrell Luc (Holy Cross) is scoring 17.7 on 43% shooting, almost all from 2FG. Plays 39 minutes a game, too. He's 5'11" and has a little over 6 assists per game.

The other double figure scorer is Daryl Banks III (St. Peters), who is scoring 16.7 PPG on 29% from 2FG and 30% from 3FG. He is also playing 39 minutes a game.  (They did have an OT game). Their leading rebounder is Yann Farrell with 6.7 per game.  He's 6'6" and played prep fall.

They have 9 players with 10 minutes or more a game.

This will be an interesting test.  This is a team finding its way and they lost to Canisius, a team (sadly) comparable to BG.  But that was on the road.

MBB Loses to Wright State

While we were all transfixed by the drama unfolding on the Glass Bowl turf, BG's MBB played a road game against Wright State.  I will admit to having it relegated to a second screen.

Wright State won the game, 80-71, their third straight over BG. BG led for only :40 and there were six ties.  BG went on a 12-2 from late first to early second half and that's when they held their lead.  A 10-2 Raider run put them up 7 with about 5 gone in the first half. BG got it back to 3 with 9 minutes left, but from there Wright State controlled the game, keeping the lead between 4 and 8 until the final 2 minutes.

Overall, the game went the way you would expect from the preview.  It was fast paced--there were 77 possessions, which is important to know when you see that BG scored 71 points.

WSU shot 83% of their FGAs from 2FG and made 58% of their 2FGs and 30% of their 3FGs. That's an EFG of 56%. Meanwhile, BG took 35% of the FGAs from 3FG and made 21% and 49% from 2FG.  That's an EFG of 43%.

BG was 1-11 last year allowing 56% EFG shooting and 1-7 shooting 43%.

BG actually did better on turnovers and rebounds and FTs were essentially even.  But the shooting differential was too much to make up.

Leon Ayers III had 22 to lead the Falcons. He made 8-13 on 2FG and 1-4 from 3FG.  He also had 6 rebouonds. Samari Curtis had a rough 16, with 4 of 9 from 2 FG and 1 of 6 from 3FG and 5 assists over 2 turnovers. Agee had 12 on 3-5 and 1-3 shooting and also had 6 rebounds.

From a minutes standoint, BG started Agee, Ayers III, Metheny, Curtis and O'Neal.  O'Neal played 9 minutes and the others played normal starter minutes.  Off the bench, Mills played 22 and Turner 23...Towns 11, Elsasser played 7 and Lightfoot and Diarra each played 1.

So, BG falls to 2-1.  Next up is a really good St. Bonaventure team...it will be snowy there.

Sweet Victory #6: The sweetest of all

 

Wow.  People sometimes wonder why you love sports, but that game right there was all the reason you would need.  This is a great rivalry that has been one-sided lately, but our Falcons gave an effort for the ages last night.  I'm so proud of them and they deserved the moment you see above. They have persevered and were resilient.  You can't ask for anything more.

I'm not going to lie and say I saw it coming.  You can see my preview.  I don't think anyone did.  I remember Cal Bowers on the Kent post-game saying that BG beat UT in '19 after being drubbed by Notre Dame, and maybe the same could happen here.  

I didn't see us pulling together that kind of performance against a really good team after what we saw last week.

I don't think I'm alone in that.  But, I'm thrilled to be wrong.  Really thrilled.  Like, my heart was pounding and I was wide awake at 2:30 in the morning.  It was an incredible win.

(FWIW, I also thought we had to run the ball to win....which was the opposite of how it happened).

It was a real win, too.  A toe-to-toe victory.  The way they are supposed to be played.

Not going to lie, when BG got the ball back with :52 left, I didn't know what we had left.  I can't remember the last time we faced a two-minute drill to win the game.  We only needed a FG, which made it easier, but in those conditions, that's never a sure thing.

The drive didn't start out great.  McDonald was sacked trying to outrun a guy and then threw an incomplete pass.  BG had a 3rd down and 15 on our 23.  But McDonald found Christian Sims--one of our best players but with two drops in this game--and he made it right by getting open, McDonald put it on him and we had 35 yards to the UT 42 with :28 left.

BG threw incompletions on first and second down.  Another live-or-die third down.  Coach said after the game that the first option on the play was CJ Lewis, but he was "tackled."  In fact, when McDonald rolled to the right and threw the ball to Keith, it was his fourth option.

When transpired is one of the most dramatic single-plays I've ever seen from our team.  Something like Sharon in the end zone at Purdue, except a rivalry game and involving a spectacular open-field run. At first, I was happy to have the first down.  Then he raced into solid field goal range.  Then he was inside the 10, bouncing off guys and, incredibly, into the end zone.

I'm sure you have seen the still photo of Keith surrounded by 4 Rockets, all of whom he beat on his way to the end zone with :09 left to stun the crowd and thrill BG fans.

Ta'ron was in Florida over the weekend dealing with serious family issues, according to Coach.  That's all I know, and it doesn't really matter to us what it was.  Coach says he couldn't have done what Keith has done.  Wishing him peace and better days.

It is easy to forget that the players and coaches are human beings at the same time.

OJ Hilaire had a game for the ages as well.  He had 8 catches for 246 yards, the third most in Falcon history and the most in the rivalry game. The top is Freddie Barnes in 2009 at Kent (22 receptions) and the next was Roger Lewis against Memphis.  No Falcon ever topped 200 yards in the rivalry game.  He was simply spectacular.  They couldn't get anywhere near him.  The second-to-last TD was just unbelievable.

And some credit to Matt McDonald, who has taken his lumps and deserved some of them.  He left a couple plays out there last night and threw one bad pick, too, but he brought way more of them home and he was on when it mattered most, in the last minute of the game.  The throw to Sims was perfect and the improv to get the ball to Keith was exactly the playmaking you need from your senior QB. (I just watched that play again and it was way better than I remembered....they were on McDonald and the throw to Keith was between two guys). That's a career-high 392 yards for McDonald.  (It might be the second most passing yards in the rivalry, Omar Jacobs had 415 in 2004).

And he did it with no real support from the run game.

Credit to the defense, too.  They really showed up.  UT's backs were 28 for 47.  There were 2 picks, 4 sacks, 5 hurries.  BG had 14 tackles for loss. If we would have defended the QB scramble, I don't think the game is even close.  Karl Brooks lived in the UT backfield--for all of the talk about their line, they had no answer for our d-line, who probably played their most dominant game since the last time BG beat the Rockets.

And special teams.  Lawler made both his FGs and BG had a blocked punt touchdown which in some ways was the difference, while UT missed a FG.

So proud of our guys.  What a night.  They deserve every second of it.

Where does that leave us?  Through the season, the question has been "is this where we should be in our third season?"  Sometimes the answer has been yes, sometimes no.  Obviously, last night was a YES.

Coach says we have a long way to go to be what we want, and we do.  But the rebuild has proceeded right along what Coach outlined when he got here.  I think we all thought six wins this year was a good season, given the schedule we had.  And we are there--not necessarily by the easiest route--but we are there. (That EKU loss continues to sting). We will probably play in a bowl game and have a shot to win 7 and still could get a re-match with the Rockets in the title game.  This is the best we have been since we started on this journey when we didn't hire Mike Elko or when we did hire Mike Jinks.

The new AD was there last night, so he saw this, too.  For my money, I think Loeffler gets an extension--maybe not a long one--but rather than reboot again I think the program is better off seeing where this leads.  We shall see what people who actually make this decision do.

Interestingly, I think UT is facing the same decision.  If you want to go to Twitter and search for "Jason Candle" you will see the words "underachievement" and "fire" featured prominently.

That's all for another day.  Let's just immerse ourselves in the glory of last night's thrilling win, the love of sports and the passion of a rivalry.  It wouldn't be any fun being a BG fan if there was no UT.

25 Questions for the Rivalry

    

What is their body of work?

Look, the rivalry has gotten pretty one-sided.  The Rockets have won 11 out of 12 in the series, only interrupted by one of the biggest upsets in college football over the preceding decade.  UT is "only" a 15.5 point favorite.

To their fan base, they are perennial underachievers.  They will play for the MAC title this year, and the best solution for everyone might to be win the game and for Candle to leave for another job on his own.

FWIW, they have played a bunch of close games.

How experienced are they?

They have 24 juniors and above on the roster, which is not a huge amount.

Who are their nationally ranked players?

Quinyon Mitchell is #12 in interceptions and #1 in passes defended.

DeQuan Finn is #8 in points responsible for.

Jerjuan Newton is #18 in receiving TDs.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -3, which is not typical of winning teams.

Offense

How is their QB play? (MAC Only from here on in)

He's probably the second-best QB in the MAC.  We will play the best in the finale. He's a top-10 rusher and #2 in passing efficiency.  He missed a game (which they won anyway) and then looked injured in their last game, which they also won.  We will see if he has returned to health.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC in scoring and are #3 in yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

They are #3 in the MAC in yards per rush.

Do they pass the ball?

Yes.  As a team, they are #2 in pass efficiency.  Finn's completion percentage at 59% is not great. 21 TDs over 10 pics and 12.8 per reception is good, however. Newton is the second-best big play WR in the conference.

How is their run/pass balance?

They have a very strong run identity, with runs on 58% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They are fifth in the MAC at 39.7%.

Do they score in the red zone?

They are extremely effective at 5.5 points per trip.  Only four outright stops all year.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They have been sacked on 5% of their pass plays, which is pretty good.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

For years this was their Achilles heel.  This year, they are #2 in scoring defense and #1 in yards per play allowed.

Do they defend the run effectively?

It's not a shut down run defense, but they are #6 in the MAC. Kent was #8.

Can they be passed on?

No.  They lead the MAC in pass defense and it isn't close.  Their passing efficiency defense is 108 and the next team is 123. They allow 55% completions, have 11 TDs allowed and 9 INT and 10.1 yards allowed per completion.  They are #8 in the nation for pass efficiency defense in all games.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

Yes.  They are #4 at 35.8

Do they defend in the red zone?

Not good at 5.6 points per opponent trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not bad, sacks on 6.9% of opponent attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 9th in net punting. They have been blocked once.  Long return against is 14 yards.  Have been blocked twice.

Punt Return?

They get 9 yards a return and have blocked one punt.

Placekicking? 

All games, he's pretty good.  10-13, long of 45, 6 of 7 inside 40.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25. No TDs.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 26, no TDs.

Intangible Miscellany

OK, look.  It's a rivalry game.  UT has nothing to play for except the rivalry and BG has bowl-eligibility to play for.

One question is how BG responds to its loss to Kent.  We were embarrassed by a team that UT beat by 21 points.

Your hope is that the stakes plus the rivalry ensure we bring our best effort.  You'd think you'd always show up for your rival, but we remember that UT-BG MBB game at the end of last year.

You'd expect to respond with a strong effort.  We shall see.

So, how does BG win this game?

First, there's all the odd-ball scenarios.  Like UT doesn't decide to play until it is too late. Or commits a blizzard of turnovers.  Etc.

Head to head, normal day, you will only need to ask yourself one question.  Did BG run the ball at an elite level?  The only hope is to keep UT's offense off the field and actually score--none of which has been happening.  

I do not think it is possible to win a low-scoring game tomorrow night.

Again, UT has played a bunch of close games.  Maybe that comes back to haunt them and BG passes them late.

BG MBB/Wright State Preview

So, tomorrow night we have two games at the same time....BG and the Rockets in football, and BG and Wright State in men's basketball.  Both away.  (The women play Wright State tonight at the Stroh).

Wright State is an interesting team.  Last year they won a play-in game to make the NCAA tourney.  They had Tanner Holden (20.1 PPG and 7.1 RPG) and Grant Basile (18.4 ppg and 8.5 rpg) and they both portaled out, the first to OSU and the second to VA Tech.

Despite this, they are #3 in pre-season poll and Blue Ribbon for the Horizon League, the #26 ranked conference.

FWIW, their Coach, Scott Nagy, said there was "zero concern" on replacing the scoring, but though that replacing the rebounding would be the challenge.  He felt they would be better on defense.

And he appears to be right. They lost to Davidson (110) in double OT in Dayton and won by 1 to Louisville (113)  @ the Yummy Place. Yes, Louisville is not good this year...but they'd be favored in the MAC or Horizon.

The first thing to recognize here is their coach, Scott Nagy.  This guy flat out gets it done.  He's won 65% of his games and 74% of his conference games.  He has 12 straight seasons with 18 wins or more and the 18 was in the COVID season when they went 18-7.  He has been in the NCAA tournament 5 times--three times at South Dakota State and twice at Wright State. Add 6 regular season titles to those 5 tournament titles. He has won the coach of the year award three times in the Horizon league.  He also has South Dakota State in the DII tournament 6 times in 7 years.

BG and Wright State are 8-8 in the series overall, WSU has won 3 of the last 4.  The last two have been blowouts...in 2015 WSU beat BG by 37, and in 2020 it was by 18.

Through two games this year, they are playing at a fast pace...in fact, faster than BG. Nagy was right, they are scoring...not where they did last year (1.06 per possession) but 1.0 per possession, a touch above national average. They are shooting also just a bit above the national average, take excellent care of the ball, and are #210 in offensive rebounding and #329 getting to the line. They are also poor FT shooters.

They shoot an NCAA average number of 3s, and are only 28% from 3FG.  They do make 53% of their 2FGs.

For those checking, early on BG's defense is #310 in the nation, with 2FG defense being a significant issue.

The Raiders are not great on defense and they were not last year, either.  They are #223 in the nation in defense.  They are easy to shoot on, especially on 2FGs...but they force turnovers, are great on their boards and have kept their opponents off the line.

Their leading scorer is Trey Calvin at 27 PPG, which is #6 in the nation. And he's efficient, at 45% and 36% shooting. He has also made all 6 of his FTs. He also has 9 assists over 3 TOs.  He's a 6'0" SR and has really burst from the shadows cast by the two guys who transferred.  His buzzer beater beat Louisville.

Their second leading scorer is Amari Davis, who was all-Horizon at Green Bay, went to Missouri, where he contributed off the bench and now he's at Wright State.  He's scoring 12 PPG a game, both on 41% shooting, and that's all 2FGs, no 3FGS.  He leads the team with 9 RPG, despite being 6'2".

Their other leading scorer is AJ Braun, a 6'9" SO.  He is scoring 10.5 PPG on 67% shooting (all 2FGs) and 6 RPG.

Blake Sisley, a SO C, is from Santa Claus, IN.

This is the best test to date, leading into games with St. Bonaventure and Notre Dame.  It will be interesting to see how the Falcons respond to this team.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 UCLA--(8-2) Lost to Arizona

EKU--(6-4)  The indomitable Colonels lost to Jacksonville St

Marshall--(6-4) The "could win out" Herd beat App State

Mississippi State--(6-4) Lost to Georgia

Akron--(1-9) Lost to EMU

Buffalo--(5-5) Lost to CMU

Miami--(4-6) Lost to OU

CMU--(4-6) Beat UB

WMU--(3-7) Lost to NIU

KSU--(4-6) We played them

UT--(7-3) Beat BSU

OU--(7-3) Beat Miami

East Vs. West: East 6, West 6

MAC vs P5: 2-19

MAC vs. G5: 6-9

MAC vs FCS: 10-2

Falcon MBB defeats Oakland for road win

So, BG went on the road and got a nice win last night.  Oakland isn't at the top of their performance, but they were ranked higher than us and a road win is a road win.  

It was a close-fought game the whole way.  Put another way, BG put out a 40-minute competitive effort. BG got the better of it in the first half, leading for 12 minutes (Oakland for only 3), but there were 10 ties.  BG went on a late run to lead by 6 at the half.

The Falcons led for the first 12 minutes of the second half as well, getting it as high as 9. The last 7 minutes were a tense affair. Oakland led by 3 with 2:20 left with Agree scored to cut the lead to 1.  BG got a stop and Chandler Turner scored with 1:31 left to give BG a 1-point lead.  Oakland took the lead back with :59 left on 2 FTs.  BG responded again with :33 left when Turner hit a second-chance basket to put BG up 1 again. 

In probably the decisive moment, Jalen Moore was fouled with :24 left.  He missed the front end of a 1-1 and they had to foul.  It was Curtis and he hit both FTs and then Ayers hit 2 more and BG won by 5.

A nice win, trailing with 2 left.  Tight contest...the kind you want to win.

It was a 71 possession game, which is a good pace for BG.  Both teams were successful on offense.  BG scored 1.22 points per possession and Oakland 1.15 points per possession.

The key stat is BG shot 40% of the FGAs from 3 and made 46%. The last game they shot 3s that well and lost was 2019 against St. John's.

Oakland took 41% from 3FG and made only 29%.  So how it is a close game?  Well, the GG made 65% from 2FG and BG made only 44%.  In fact, OU outshot BG and had a turnover advantage and free throws were tied.

The only factor BG won was rebounding, getting 51% of the offensive rebounds and allowing only 24% to Oakland.  Same thing happened last year...it's a weakness of the 1-3-1 zone and BG got enough from it to win. It was BG's best offensive rebounding game since 2019.

Individually, BG had some strong performances.  Remember, it was a high scoring game.  Ayers III had 26 points, but it came on 8-23 shooting...4 of 17 on 2FGS.  He was 4-6 from 3FG and 6-6 at the line.  Also 4 rebounds.  Not the most efficient night, but BG needs guys who are willing to go for the score on offense, I think.

Chandler Turner double-doubled.  He had 16 with 10 rebounds in 24 minutes.  He was 4-5 from 2FG, 1-1 from 3FG and 5-6 at the line.

Kaden Metheny burst out of his slump, as we knew he would.  On a tempo-free basis, he was BG's best offensive player. He scored 15 on 5 of 9 3FG shooting, but had no assists.  Agree had 12 on 4-8 shooting and 7 rebounds in 23 minutes. And Curtis had a rough 12 on 2 of 4 and 2 of 7 shooting, but had 7 assists over 4 turnovers.

Next up is Wright State on Tuesday.

Oakland MBB Preview

Oakland is coached by BG grad Greg Kampe (played football and basketball).  He is in his 39th season there--only Boeheim has been at his school longer.  He has built this program, starting at DII, moving to D1 and then into the Horizon Conference.  And the NCAA tournament, where they have played 3 times, with a play-in win to their credit.  They were last in the 2011 tourney.  They have been pretty consistently successful but had three straight losing seasons before a 20-12 record last year.

This is the 11th meeting and the series is tied 5-5, with BG winning the last 2, both at the Stroh.  BG has won only once @ Oakland, and that was in 1999.

BG won last year's game in a thriller that came down to a buzzer-tip that didn't go down for the Griz. Overall, a very close game, 9 ties, 12 lead changes and BG led for 17:08 and OU for 16:08. It was BG's best win of the season until they beat OU near the end of the year.  Oakland had blown UT out and beat Oklahoma State as well.

They are picked #4 in the Horizon Conference this year and opened up with a blow-out win over Defiance (92-27).

Their leading scorer, Jamal Cain, graduated.  Jalen Moore is the 2nd leading scorer and he is back.  He was injured for the opener, but the word seems to be that he will be ready for Friday.  Moore and 18 with 7 assists and 7 turnovers last year against BG and scored 15.5 on 34% shooting for the year (23% from 3FG) and 7.7 assists.

He was pre-season All-Horizon.

They started two transfers, Keaton Hervey (Missouri State) and Rocket Watts (Mississippi State, Michigan State).  and they both scored in double figures--but who didn't.  Hervey was a started at Missouri State, Watts was once on the all-Big Ten freshman team.  There's one other transfer, Lorne Bowman II who came off the bench at Wisconsin.

Blake Lampman is a returner, he scored 7 a game on poor shooting and also Trey Townsend, who started every game last year, scored 12 PPG on 56% shooting and added 5.6 RPG.

The biggest note from last year is that Oakland plays a 1-3-1 zone, the kind of zone that drives coaches crazy.  It is aggressive and you don't see it much, making it a difficult prep.  BG struggled for a while against them but ended up at .97 points per possession...and defended an average defensive team to .96 points a possession.

BG shot the 3 well, as you'd expect against a zone...and had decent shot selection, as opposed to coming down and jacking a shot up. The 1-3-1 is designed to create turnovers, which is did, but it also allowed BG to get extra possessions on offensive rebounding, which you would also expect.

It will be an interesting game.  Can BG handle the ball against this defense?  Can BG hit outside shots?  Will the Falcons--without Plowden--be able to get to the offensive boards?  And can the Falcons extend the defense from the Air Force game to an better opponent?

Sadness Accrues--BG Football not nearly good enough

 Woof.  Well, that could not have been worse.

To wallow in it for a moment...it's a meaningful game...finally.  The opponent is good but has shown they can be beaten.  We are tied for first place five games into the season.  We're at home and playing well.

And we were absolutely embarrassed by Kent, 40-6.  From the opening kickoff, it was never in question.  It was incredibly disappointing, and with the new AD in the house...

And that's our fifth straight loss to Kent and three of those have been blowouts.

When we look at where we are in the rebuild, this and the Buffalo game are part of the record and it's a really bad part.  These were 2020 performances in 2022.  It's disappointing and discouraging.

Where to start.

It's mostly on the offense, in my view, and it all started up front.  BG established no real running game.  Coach said after the game we are missing "the back," at which point you wonder if he means Stewart or Taron Keith, who also did not play.  Either way, we were led to believe we were fairly deep at back and now maybe not.

Anyway, if you take out Wimberly and the sacks, BG had 77 yards on on 27 carries, for 2.9 yards.  BG could not run the ball at all.

You can look at the stats, and than you look at those 6 failed 2-point conversion plays and, in coach's words, "you have to be able to make a yard."

I didn't mind going for them...I thought it was the right thing.  We had to score to compete...what bothered me was not being able to making them.  I mean, maybe we punt them back and play field position...I can see that...but I didn't mind going for it.  Kent is not a good defensive team and we didn't convert.

Coach took all this on himself.  He said that he was outcoached "for his first time at BG" (we will just leave that there) and that we have good prep but did not put guys in the right position to succeed.

Whichever, the offense was unable to sustain drives for the entire night.  They left the defense in bad positions and the defense clung on as long as they could but eventually it wasn't enough.

We had troubles on the line for running, but it didn't match our issues at pass protection.  In particular, both of our LTs were just abused on the pass rush.  It was hard to watch.  Kent also got pressure up the middle on our right side, so when McDonald stepped up, he was under pressure there. It impacted our playcalling, forcing us to easily defended passes to the flat and behind the line of scrimmage.

This was the biggest issue for the team when the season began and line play has been better,  but it wasn't good enough last night and...UT has the best defensive line in the MAC.  Just to make the point, we don't have a consistently winning offensive line in year 4 of the rebuild.

The defense played well enough to win with a decent offensive effort.  They didn't play great or maybe even good, but they won their share of battle.  In particular, after BG screwed up the opening kickoff they got off the field and they battled poor field position through the end of the first quarter.  Eventually, Kent broke through.  They ended up with 3 50-yard TD drives out of 4 TDs.

While we are at it, BG had two terrible special teams plays--the opening kickoff that never should have hit the ground and a shanked punt.

Coach did step up and take the responsibility.  He says that when they play that poorly, it starts with him.  I mean, I get it.  I appreciate he's not trying to evade responsibility.  But everyone already knew that.  He's built this program...and whether it was where it should be or not is a judgment call, but it's on him now.

A bowl is still possible, but way less likely.  UT is good but not unbeatable, but possibly a poor match up for us.  And OU is playing really well.  Cal mentioned after the game that we beat UT last time after the Notre Dame drubbing.  And we did win 3 straight after the UB debacle.  That's what we are going to need.  Because this game--an important game--was as far from a winning effort as it could have been.

25 Questions that Flash Fast

   

Gerald Tinker, WR and Olympic Gold Medalist

What is their body of work?

This is a program without any consistent success in 50 years.  Don James was once coach there...in the early 70s they had players like Tinker, Gary Pinkel, Nick Saban, Jack Lambert, Don Nottingham. In the 47 seasons since Don James left, they have had 5 winning seasons.

In 2019, after firing Paul Haynes, the Flashes were publicly turned down multiple times for the HC job.  They eventually hired Syracuse OC and former BG OC Sean Lewis.  Lewis has one of those winning seasons and a second season right at .500.  Two bowl appearences.   Overall record is tough, because Kent plays a brutal non-conference schedule.  Lewis is 14-6 in MAC play over the past 3 years, coming into this season.  They won the East last year.

They are not as good this year, at 2-3 in MAC play.

They have beaten BG 4 straight, twice by 30+ point margins.

How experienced are they?

They have 33 juniors and above on the roster, which is a lot.  15 are listed as graduate students.

Who are their nationally ranked players?

Marquez Cooper is #11 in all-purpose yards, #12 in rushing yards

Devontez Walker is #10 in receiving TDs

Dante Cephus is #13 in receiving yards

Nico Bolden is #9 in solo tackles

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -1

Offense

How is their QB play? (MAC Only from here on in)

Colin Schlee is their QB.  Their Flash Fast attack has him #3 in the MAC in yards, but he's 6th in efficiency, behind McDonald. He has only 59% completions, 5 TD over 1 INT and 12.3 per completion. He is very much a dual-threat QB.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are #5 in scoring and #2 in yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

They have the 2nd best running attack in the MAC, at 5 per carry.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, Schlee is #6 in efficiency.  As a team they are #4.  Dante Cephus averages 119 yards per game and 16 per catch.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 57% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They are third in the MAC at 44%.

Do they score in the red zone?

They are not good.  That's why their #2 yardage only converts to #5 scoring. They average 4 points per trip.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They have been sacked on 5% of their pass plays, which is pretty good.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are 10th in scoring defense and 11th in yards per play allowed.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are 8th in yards per rush allowed.

Can they be passed on?

They are 11th in defensive pass efficiency. The allow 68% completions (last), 11 TDs and 12.9 per completion.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are 7th, allowing 41%.

Do they defend in the red zone?

Pretty good at 4.5 yards per trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not bad, sacks on 6.5% of opponent attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 7th in net punting. They have been blocked once.

Punt Return?

They are decent and have 1 TD.

Placekicking? 

All games, he's not great. He's 13 of 21, 3 misses under 40, blocked twice, long of 50.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 29.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 29, which is not bad.  Their returner is #2 in the MAC.

Intangible Miscellany

Kent is a 2.5 point favorite, which I find a little interesting.

Here's the thing.  BG's defense has played poor offenses with young or ineffective QBs for the last 3 weeks.  They have done what they are supposed to do, which is shut them down.  Many other times we have made poor offenses look like world-beaters.  This offense is better than that and plays at pace.  BG will have a chance to prove it can stop a team that is good on offense.  It will require stopping the run and being strong in the back end and tackling well, because Kent plays in space a lot.

And the offense simply has to show up.  Kent is not good on defense and BG has to put it together.  Not three plays away from an excellent performance, but a strong consistent performance.

This is the most meaningful game we have played in 7 years.  Not to look too far ahead, but a BG win over Kent and a Buffalo loss somewhere along the line and BG plays OU for the East Title, regardless of the UT result.  And a win makes BG bowl eligible, a huge accomplishment for the program given where they came from, and the line we were looking for when we started the year.

I don't know if we are there, yet.  But this one is winnable but BG needs to continue to bring strong efforts on both sides of the ball and especially the offense has to complete the plays that should be out there.

BG Falcons Win Opener

 BG moved to 1-0 with a win over Air Force last night at the Stroh.  The final was 62-58.  Every win is good for our guys right now.

It didn't start out great, with Air Force going up 12-3 as BG struggled against a match-up zone.  BG battled back and took the lead with 9 minutes left and never trailed again.

They were up 9 with a minute to go in the half and ended up leading by 6.  The second half was very much in that range for the first 12 minutes.  With about 8 left, BG went on a 5-0 to lead by 12.  Air Force chipped away, but BG led by 7 with 3:50 left. 

Air Force rallied hard at this point.  They made a 3 and BG split 2 FTs to make the lead 5 with 2:17 left.

BG got a stop with 1"46 left and really, that should have been it.  But Curtis made a wild charge into the lane and was called for charging when it seemed like pulling the ball out was the play.

AFA had a back door cut going and Mills fouled the guy and he missed the front end.  Another empty possession and with 1:03 left it should be good.

With :36 left Ayers was fouled and BG again split the pair, up 6 now.

With :26 left BG got a steal (game over) but Ayers was called for a double dribble (game not over) and AFA had the ball back.

With :12 left, AFA hit a 3FG to make it a 3-point lead.  They fouled Ayers who missed the first but (thankfully) hit the second and BG had the win locked down.

It was a defensive struggle.  The game had 69 possessions, which Coach felt represented a tempo victory for BG.  The Falcons scored .9 points per possession, but allowed Air Force only .84.  I felt like it was a much improved defensive performance.  We were all worried about whether BG could play deep into possessions with the eye for detail it takes to defend the Princeton offense, but AFA did not score on a back-door cut for the whole game.  

They were forced to take 62% of their FGs from 3FG...the highest in the kenpom era against BG...and  made 35% (which is about average) and then 48% from 2FG.

With all that, they actually outshot BG.  BG made 44% of its 2FGs and 30% of its 3FGs.  

The key difference in the game was FTs.  Air Force attempted only 4 FTs for the game while BG attempted 19, making only 12.

BG had a slight lead on turnovers and did not offensive rebound well at all.  Neither did Air Force, who does not crash the boards at all.

Leon Ayers scored 16 for BG on 6 of 12 shooting, 4 rebounds and 4 turnovers. Curtis had 14 on 6 of 13 and 1 of 5 shooting.  Agee had 13 of 3 of 9 shooting (7 of 9 at the line) and 7 rebounds.

BG had 9 players go for 10 minutes or more.

Less positive notes...Kaden Metheny is really struggling. We know he can play, but right now it is rough going. Gabe O'Neal started both halves but logged only 5 minutes and 3 fouls.

Overall, Coach said after the game that there was a different feel than in past years. The team seemed more energetic and more cohesive, just based on observation.  There was way more involvement by the bench in the game. It was downright noisy during first half possessions against the Princeton.  There was also laughter on the bench.  I hope this is a good sign.  In the past, I have felt like we were less than the sum of our parts.

There is a lot of room for improvement.  There were some terrible passes with players dribbling into a hole and flinging the ball out.  And the team needs to work to find more consistent scoring in the half-court...there were possessions that were tough to watch.

But a win is a win.

Next up is Oakland and their 1-3-1.

Air Force MBB Preview

So, the whole thing starts Monday, at the Stroh, as the Air Force Falcons come in.

There has been a decent amount of Falcon on Falcon action, what with Notre Dame College and Fairmont State playing here. This is BG's first meeting with the D1 Falcons from Colorado.

Air Force has not played a MAC team since 2016.  They are 6-6 against MAC teams.

They have been in the NCAA Tournament 4 times, twice since BG has.  They have never won a game in the tourney.

They are coached by Joe Scott, in his second tenure at Air Force.  He has coached for 18 years, starting at Air Force, moving to his alma mater, Princeton (after John Thompson III), then to Denver, assistant stints at Holy Cross and Georgia and then back to Air Force.  He took Air Force to the NCAAs in his first stint.

They have had 9 straight losing seasons. They were 11-18 last year, finishing 9th in a really strong Mountain West. They lost 2 starters and have 7 newcomers, with a total roster of 20 guys. Of course, you can't transfer to Air Force. 15 of their players played at the Air Force Academy Prep School.

They were picked #11 in the MW poll.  Worth noting that the MW is the #9 ranked conference to start the season and the MAC is #18.

Offensively, the key thing to note is that they will play the famous Princeton offense...see more here, but it's a thing.

The first thing is that the offense looks to control the pace of the game, and that will bring a clash of styles.  Last year, AFA was #347 in possessions per game and BG was #7.

When looking at AFA last year, they were #343 in experience.  They had 10 FR on the roster.  So, Princeton or no, they struggled.

They were #334 in offensive efficiency.  They shot above average--especially from 2FG, which you would expect from the offense.  They shot a high proportion of 3FGs. 

They don't get many offensive rebounds, which is not too surprising since they are a tempo-focused, four-out attack.  They did, however, turn the ball over a lot, which you would not expect, and did not get to the line (kind of expected) but were #347 in FT shooting.

This system often produces defenses that rank high on traditional manners, but tempo-free is another issue.  They were #246 in the country in defensive efficiency. They defended the 3FG great and the 2FG poorly and did force turnovers.  They were not great on the defensive boards and give up a lot of FTs.

One other note on the stats. Their strength of schedule was #117 and BG's was #282.

Their leading scorer from last year is not back.  Their second leading scorer, at 10 a game, is Jake Heiderenner, on 50% and 38% shooting. Ethan Taylor was their #3 scorer, #1 rebounder and #1 assist man is back as well. 

So, the questions here are:

How much better is Air Force's young team than they were last year?

Has BG's defense improved enough to bring forward the disciplined, full-shot clock focus it will take to defend this team?

Can BG's offense take care of the ball (as they are typically decent at) and then get to the basket and not rely only on 3FGs against a team that will defend them well?