Southern Indiana MBB Preview

So, the Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles are coming to town.

First, a look at who these guys are because they are fairly new to us.

USI is outside Evansville with about 10,000 students.  Founded in 1965, it started as a branch campus of Indiana State and became its own unit in 1985. 

They are re-classifying to DI from DII, but will not be eligible for the NCAAs until 26-27.  They are playing in the OVC.  This is their first year in DI.

They were no joke in DII.  They made the tournament 29 times from 1978-2021, won it once and made the final four...four times, most recently in 2019.  They made it last year and won once before bowing out.

They are picked 7th in the OVC, with one player on the All-OVC pre-season team.

The OVC is the 28th-ranked conference.  They are often higher, like in the low 20s.

They are coached by Stan Gouard, in his second year.  He played at USI and was a two-time DII player of the year. He coached Indianapolis in GLIAC for 12 years and won 66% of his games, including numerous tournament appearances and one sweet sixteen.

They did have NCAA violations in 2009 or so and once had a post-season ban imposed by GLIAC.

They are 2-3 for the year, with 1 DI win.  They are, however, representing. They beat Southern Illinois (#98) by 18. They lost to Missouri by 6, St. Bonaventure by 14, and Notre Dame by 12.  Their kenpom is #204 and kenpom has them with a 51% chance of winning tomorrow.

They like to play fast. At 74 possessions, they like to play faster than BG does at about 71.  So if you like the pace, it will be a good game.

As we will see, USI shoots the ball really well.  However, they are just average at overall offensive efficiency--no better than BG.  They are not great on defense, where they pretty much match BG.  You can see here why it is expected to be a close game.  Because of the "Gotham Classic" we have a higher proportion of common opponents than normal.

So, USI is a really strong shooting team matched up against a BG team that is easy to shoot against. USI takes 41% of their FGA from 3FG, which is a lot. They make 39%, which is #35 in the country. They are below average on 2FGs.  They end up average on scoring because they turn the ball over a lot, they don't get offensive rebounds, and while they get to the line, they only make 67%.  

As you can see, BG doesn't really force turnovers, so we will have to see how we take advantage of them being prone to turnovers. If you see the Screaming Eagles taking care of the ball and making shots, you know we are in trouble.

USI is less good on defense.  Whether BG takes advantage of that is another matter.  This is a typical BG offensive profile.  Below average shooting...and below 30% on 3FG for the year...combined with taking good care of the ball and being good on the offensive boards.  We are not getting to the line, which I see as a reflection of impact offensive playmakers. We do make 74% when we get there.

I have to say, I am worried about whether there is a path for us to be a better-than-average offensive team.

They returned 3 starters from last year.  Jelani Simmons, their pre-season OVC player, is their leading scorer.  He's 6'5" and a SR. from Columbus. He's scoring 14.5 PPG, shooting 68% on 2FG and 43% of 3FG. 

Jacob Polakovich is the #2 scorer.  He is a 6'9" Sr. from Grand Rapids, MI. He scores 11.7 PPG on 68% shooting and 8 rebounds per game.

Trevor Lakes is also scoring 12 PPG. He is 6'8" and a grad transfer from Nebraska, where he was not really a contributor.  He played for Gouard at Indianapolis before that.  He is shooting 52% from 3FG, where almost all his shots come.  He adds 5 RPG.

Their other double-figure scorer is Isaiah Swope.  He's a 5'10 SO.  He scores 11.4 PPG, but is less efficient, making 50% on 2FG and 22% on 3FG. He shoots a lot.  He also has 5 assists per game, with a 1.7 ratio.  They have another guard off the bench with a negative ratio.

So, well-distributed scoring.  Some good length.  An experienced team.  This is a quality team.  But, to make Cleveland, we need to beat teams like this.  At home, only a win projects to BG having a successful season.