25 Questions for the Rivalry

    

What is their body of work?

Look, the rivalry has gotten pretty one-sided.  The Rockets have won 11 out of 12 in the series, only interrupted by one of the biggest upsets in college football over the preceding decade.  UT is "only" a 15.5 point favorite.

To their fan base, they are perennial underachievers.  They will play for the MAC title this year, and the best solution for everyone might to be win the game and for Candle to leave for another job on his own.

FWIW, they have played a bunch of close games.

How experienced are they?

They have 24 juniors and above on the roster, which is not a huge amount.

Who are their nationally ranked players?

Quinyon Mitchell is #12 in interceptions and #1 in passes defended.

DeQuan Finn is #8 in points responsible for.

Jerjuan Newton is #18 in receiving TDs.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -3, which is not typical of winning teams.

Offense

How is their QB play? (MAC Only from here on in)

He's probably the second-best QB in the MAC.  We will play the best in the finale. He's a top-10 rusher and #2 in passing efficiency.  He missed a game (which they won anyway) and then looked injured in their last game, which they also won.  We will see if he has returned to health.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC in scoring and are #3 in yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

They are #3 in the MAC in yards per rush.

Do they pass the ball?

Yes.  As a team, they are #2 in pass efficiency.  Finn's completion percentage at 59% is not great. 21 TDs over 10 pics and 12.8 per reception is good, however. Newton is the second-best big play WR in the conference.

How is their run/pass balance?

They have a very strong run identity, with runs on 58% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They are fifth in the MAC at 39.7%.

Do they score in the red zone?

They are extremely effective at 5.5 points per trip.  Only four outright stops all year.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They have been sacked on 5% of their pass plays, which is pretty good.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

For years this was their Achilles heel.  This year, they are #2 in scoring defense and #1 in yards per play allowed.

Do they defend the run effectively?

It's not a shut down run defense, but they are #6 in the MAC. Kent was #8.

Can they be passed on?

No.  They lead the MAC in pass defense and it isn't close.  Their passing efficiency defense is 108 and the next team is 123. They allow 55% completions, have 11 TDs allowed and 9 INT and 10.1 yards allowed per completion.  They are #8 in the nation for pass efficiency defense in all games.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

Yes.  They are #4 at 35.8

Do they defend in the red zone?

Not good at 5.6 points per opponent trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not bad, sacks on 6.9% of opponent attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 9th in net punting. They have been blocked once.  Long return against is 14 yards.  Have been blocked twice.

Punt Return?

They get 9 yards a return and have blocked one punt.

Placekicking? 

All games, he's pretty good.  10-13, long of 45, 6 of 7 inside 40.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25. No TDs.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 26, no TDs.

Intangible Miscellany

OK, look.  It's a rivalry game.  UT has nothing to play for except the rivalry and BG has bowl-eligibility to play for.

One question is how BG responds to its loss to Kent.  We were embarrassed by a team that UT beat by 21 points.

Your hope is that the stakes plus the rivalry ensure we bring our best effort.  You'd think you'd always show up for your rival, but we remember that UT-BG MBB game at the end of last year.

You'd expect to respond with a strong effort.  We shall see.

So, how does BG win this game?

First, there's all the odd-ball scenarios.  Like UT doesn't decide to play until it is too late. Or commits a blizzard of turnovers.  Etc.

Head to head, normal day, you will only need to ask yourself one question.  Did BG run the ball at an elite level?  The only hope is to keep UT's offense off the field and actually score--none of which has been happening.  

I do not think it is possible to win a low-scoring game tomorrow night.

Again, UT has played a bunch of close games.  Maybe that comes back to haunt them and BG passes them late.