The Huskies are 9-8 with only 1 non-D1 win. Their best non-MAC win was Oakland (#205) and they have 5 wins over teams ranked 300 and below, which is an impressive scheduling feat if nothing else.
They opened up MAC play with a surprising win @ UB, lost @ CMU, beat EMU in DeKalb and were smoked by a scalding Akron team at the JAR. (AK is up to #60 on kenpom. Their average margin of victory in MAC games is 19 points).
BG beat them twice last year...once in DeKalb and once in the MAC semi-finals after NIU had knocked UT out. Over their last 10 meetings, the series is 5-5 and 2-2 over the last four games at the Stroh.
Profile-wise, NIU is a good defensive team and a not-good offensive team. d-1 average is 1 point per possession, so you can see where everybody stands. BG has struggled on defense quite a bit and if you see the Huskies start scoring at will, you'll know we're struggling again. Meanwhile, BG has been successful on offense and will be taking on a decent Huskie defense. It has the makings of an interesting game.
So, struggling offense meets struggling defense...things should look pretty even and they do. NIU is a poor shooting team--especially against the 2FG, where they make 45%, among the lowest 30 in the country. BG has been excellent over the year against the 2FG, so that's an opportunity. For 3FGs, NIU is right on plumb average and BG is #310 defending the 3FG. They try about the same amount of 3s as BG's previous opponents.
They take OK care of the ball, but are good on the offensive boards. D1 average is 38%. The last place with a big spread is at FT shooting. They are #279 at getting to the line and BG is #278 at allowing FTs. They make only 67%.
On the other side, it's good on good, but still evenly matched. BG is not a great shooting team, but to the extent the Falcons have relied on 3FGs, NIU is #50 in the country defending the 3. You're going to need to attack the basket as well. Maybe that back door play will work like 10 times like it did against NIU. As has been the case all year, BG makes up for not great shooting by not turning the ball over...they are #1 in the country in turnover percentage. BG is average on the offensive boards but NIU is #19 on their own defensive boards, which will keep BG from extra possessions if it holds true. They don't put people on the line and BG doesn't get to the line.
NIU has only one double-figure scorer and he's the MAC's leading scorer...Eugene German at 20 PPG. He shoots a lot to get there, which you would expect. He's #25 in the nation in terms of percentage of possessions used. He's shooting 43% overall, which is nothing special, though he is above average at 35% from 3FG. He leads the team in assists but has an even A/TO ratio.
Lacey James is a 6'9" Sr. He's scoring 9 PPG and adding 7.7 rebounds, but his 43% shooting is not very good for a big.
BG needs these early wins and at home they should win this one. Hopefully. the defense will clamp down on a weak offense and BG will get the win.
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