The Falcons are 3-1 and in a tie for second in the MAC. Remember, BG is in the softest part of its MAC schedule. We have statistically played the softest MAC schedule, according to kenpom.
Having said that, you're supposed to beat these teams and BG is winning the games. The test for a championship team is to translate that to the better teams in the MAC. BG has faced one--Kent--and had a decidedly bad night. That's going to need to change when the time comes.
Just to put it in perspective, BG could easily end up at 6-1 following Tuesday's EMU game. Anything less would be a disappointment. They will have played 4 home games and 2 away games, so 5 home left and 7 on the road. After that, Kenpom has BG favored to win only 3 more games--just to illustrate the schedule difference.
So, to get to 12 wins (let's say), you need home wins over EMU, NIU, BSU, UB, UT, OU and a win at Miami. That's certainly doable. Bonus opportunities are @UB and @CMU and AK at home.
Anyway, with championship expectations, I would say two things.
1. You need these early wins badly
2. This team needs to defend better to win a title. And there's time to get that done.
BG's two worst defensive games of the season have been the last two. BG is currently 11th in the MAC in defense and 3rd in offense. Last year BG finished 6th in defense and 2nd in offense. That's going to have to adjust itself against better competition moving forward, or BG will have a hard time meeting expectations. BG's 3 best offensive games have been the last two and Hartford, so BG is scoring with Turner back, but I just feel it will take a more rounded effort to win pressure games.
For this game, WMU led for most of the first 10 minutes. BG took the lead with 9 minutes left and WMU lead for only :35 the rest of the way. There's more to the story than that, but BG essentially was in the lead for 29 straight minutes, with leads reaching as high as 10 at 64-54 with about 12 left.
WMU then went on a 15-5, though, and the game was tied with 8 minutes left. BG responded well and had the lead back to 9 with 2:51 left to play. (At that level, the winning team wins 97% of the time, as they did in this case). Over the next 1:45 or so WMU scored 7 straight points, leaving BG with the ball and a 2-point lead with 1:07 left.
So, the pressure's on. You don't want to drop this one after having that kind of lead with 3 minutes left. BG got the ball to Marlon Sierra and he made a shot from the key and drew a blocking foul to make it an and-1. Hawkins was apoplectic at the call...I watched the replay several times. The WMU player was moving when the contact happened. He seemed to be moving sideways, though, which is allowed if he had established legal guarding position, which for my money was a bang-bang call.
Anyway, Sierra hit the FT and BG was up 5 with :40 to play.
You'd like one stop here, one buckle down effort where you seal the game. Unfortunately, BG couldn't contain Flowers and he hit a layup with :30 to play to make it 3.
Even so, you're in decent shape with the ball. WMU pressed like crazy and Justin Turner showed some serious handle, basically driving down the sideline against pressure and into the front court before turning back. They didn't get a foul until :20 left. WMU needed 3 fouls to get BG into the bonus.
So, basically, BG has to inbound the ball 3 straight times without a turnover. We've all sat through some cringe-worthy BG pressure inbounds, but BG made it happen this time and relatively easily. On the third one, the ball ended up with Sierra as opposed to one of the guards...Coach said after the game he's looking for the guards to work harder to get to the ball in that situation.
Anyway, Sierra missed the FT so WMU had a chance to tie. Once again, BG did not foul in this situation (because the data indicates that's the better move ;) ) and Flowers launched a contested 3 with :03 left. Thankfully, he missed, BG knocked the rebound out and WMU did get a shot off in .7 but missed again and the Falcons had the win.
BG scored 1.15 points per possession and WMU had 1.11 (see discussion above).
Here's what you have. BG shot well--best of the year. BG made 56% of 2 FGs and 42% of 3FGs. As mentioned, WMU also shot well, with 57% from 2FG but only 32% from 3FG. Turnovers were even as were offensive rebounds. The other key difference was fouls. BG had 17 fouls...WMU had only 11 until they had to start fouling at the end. WMU made 14 of 19 at the line while BG made only 5 of 7...a -9 deficit for BG.
Daeqwon Plowden led the way for BG. He scored 19 on 8 of 11 shooting and 2 of 3 from distance. He added 6 rebounds...a good day in any book. Frye had 16 on 7 of 17 and 2 of 8 shooting, so a relatively rough road to those points. Justin Turner had 12 on 5 of 13 and 2 of 5 shooting and 7 rebounds. He was quiet until late. Coach said after the game that he wants Justin to attack double teams more...said he can be too passive when doubled-team.
Probably the key performance was Marlon Sierra, who scored 12 on 5 of 6 shooting and added 8 rebounds in 21 minutes. That's just solid and allows BG to go without a true 5 much of the way.
The bench was productive. Trey Diggs was 3-4 from 3, Laster had 8 assists over 1 TO, and Matiss and Swingle were both productive when they were in there.
Next up is NIU back at home.
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