MBB: OU Preview

Next up for BG is the OU Bobcats.  They are normally one of the four consistent programs in MAC Men's Basketball and were picked by Blue Ribbon to win the MAC.  To date, things have not gone that way. They were 6-6 in pre-MAC play, and their kenpom fell from 118 to 163.  

In fact, last year they were also 6-6 entering MAC play and 7-5 to start MAC play.  They won their last 6, finished 13-5 in MAC play and lost in the semi to Akron.

This year, they won their first 4 MAC games and are 2-4 since then.  They also lost by 13 to App State on Saturday.  For various parts of the last 6 games, they have had three starters missing games.  Two are back, but Aidan Hadaway has missed the last 6 and is unlikely to return from a broken ankle.

The Bobcats are clearly not where they hoped to be.  If they can get healthy for Cleveland, I think they have a shot at winning the tournament.  In the meantime, BG is hoping to show what they can do after getting the flu out but with Sam Towns and Yo-Yo Khayat (I assume) still on the bench.

Kenpom gives OU a 66% chance to win and Vegas makes them 4.5-point favorites.

BG has won 6 of the last 10 and the last 6 at the Stroh.  The last loss was in 2017 by 24, when Coach Huger suspended Rasheed Worrell, Zack Denny, Antwon Lillard and Ismail Ali. Two football players logged 5 minutes each in keeping the team afloat.

Both teams like to play fast...OU at 73 possessions and BG at 70.

Based on the year to date, you wouldn't expect to see any surprises here.  OU is #4 in offense and #3 in defense, and BG is the mirror opposite..meaning in the bottom half of the conference.

OU takes 38% of their shots from 3FG, which is below the national average of 40%. They are above average on both FGs, making 55% from 2FG (3rd) and 36.6% from 3FG (6th).  They take excellent care of the ball, are a terrible rebounding team (Remember, they lost their top rebounder).  They do get to the line and make 76% when they are there, which is also good.

BG is the easiest team to shoot against in the MAC.  They have relied on the other three factors--all of which they are pretty good at--to have whatever success they are having.  A note of bad luck...BG's opponents make 78% of their FTs, highest in the MAC.

OU's opponents shoot only 34% of their FGAs from 3FG, which is the lowest in the MAC. I'm not sure why...they are #3 defending the 2FG and #5 defending the 3FG.  They keep their opponents off the line but are not good at forcing turnovers or on the defensive boards.

Making some shots wouldn't be the worst thing to happen.  BG counts on getting to the line and will need to force OU into fouling.  And hopefully, 2nd chance points will get BG's scoring to the point where they can stay in the game.

OU has five players scoring in double figures.

AJ Clayton is the leading scorer at 14.3 PPG on 52% and 49% shooting, which is really efficient.   He has blocked 16 shots in 7 games.

Jackson Paveletzke is scoring 14.1 PPG.  He played previously at Wofford and Iowa State.  He's shooting 62% (most of his shots) and 32%. He leads the team with 43 assists.

AJ Brown is scoring 13.9 PPG on 56% and 40% shooting, also very efficient. 

Shereef Mitchell scores 13.3 PPG on 45% and 36% shooting.

Aidan Hadaway is also scoring in double figures and leading them in rebounds, but is injured and not expected to return.

So here we go.  BG will need to exceed some expectations to get things turned around and this would appear to be as good an opportunity as any.  It would be great to see Johnson, Thomas and Butler synchronize and generate consistent offensive pressure....and also for BG to avoid settling into a stagnant offense for long periods of time.