CMU Preview...Will the Beat Go On?

What is their body of work?

CMU is a traditional MAC power who has been in the wilderness for quite a while.  They rode the Brian Kelly/Butch Jones train to 2 10+ win seasons in 6 years, including a 12-2 ranked year in 2009. There were 3 MAC Championships in there.

In the 9 seasons with Dan Enos and John Bonamego, they won 8 games only once and were 1-11 in the last of those years.  In comes Jim McElwain.  There are a number of ways to bring coaches to the MAC.  You can get an up-and-comer--head coach or assistant.  Or, you can try to rehab a P4 coach...like Jim McElwain, who won 65% of his games at Florida before being fired.

He has won 49% in Mt. Pleasant, with 12-20 over the past three years (including this year), and is said to be on the hot seat.

They are 3-5 and 1-3.  They won their FCS game, beat SD State in Mt. Pleasant, and beat Ball State.  Losses are @FIU (blowout), @Ill, OU, @MU and @EMU.  They have lost 3 in a row.

BG and CMU haven't played much.  Only 3 times since 2010.  BG is 2-1 in that time, with a win by Carl Pelini and Loeffler splitting.  BG won the last meeting in 2022.  BG has won 3 straight at Kelly/Shorts Stadium and the last BG coach to lose there was Gregg Brandon.

BG is a 10 point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

29 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart. 

Who are their national leaders?

Donte Kent is #10 in punt returns.

Jordan Kwiatkowski is #17 in TFL.

(MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +3 in MAC play.  They have only one TO in MAC games.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Big issues here.  They started with Joe Labas, an Iowa transfer, who is out for the year.  They were to Bert Emmanuel, Jr., and he is now week-to-week and out this week.  This leaves them with Tyler Jefferson, a R-FR from Florida. He's only completed 49% with 0TDs and 1 INT. He is a dual-threat guy.  He started the EMU game, and Emmanuel came in and sparked a wild game they lost. He went the whole way against Miami's stout defense and struggled as expected.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They score 25 PPG (7th) and gain 6.1 yards per play (5th). BG's defense allows 17.3 points per game, which is 2nd.  The Falcons allow 4.8 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

They are strong here. #2 at 5.8 yards per rush.  Also, note that they have a running QB, something the Falcons have really struggled with. BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As noted, they are #11 in team passing efficiency.  Also their top WR, Evan Boyd, will not play.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 64% of their plays, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  28% overall, #10 in the MAC.  BG allows 30% which is #4 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.8 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.5 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 2 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 11 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

No...sacks on 10% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36.3) and 9th in yards per play allowed (6.5).  BG scored 25.5 which is #8 and 5.5 yards per play which is #9.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 60% completions, 9 TDs over 1 INT and almost 13 yards a completion.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 69% completion is #2 in MAC.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

CMU allows 33%, which is #5.  BG converts 33%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 5 per trip, which is not great. BG offense scores 4.7 per trip, which is also not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Good pass rush, they have sacks on 9.4% of passes. BG allows sacks on 11% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #4 in net punting. They have been blocked once.  In MAC play, BG is #4.

Punt Return?

They are good, #6 in the MAC.  1 TD.

Placekicking? 

He's very good.  All games he's 11 of 13, 8-8 under 40 with a long of 54.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 25, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

So, look.  Rainy weather.  Certain to be a mostly empty stadium. BG coming off a big win and needs to refocus, which has been a problem for our program over the past few years.  CMU is not healthy.  This should be a good matchup for us and BG needs to click the W heading into a big game against WMU at the Doyt the following Tuesday.