Hated Rival Preview

What is their body of work?

Look, these guys are in the same place every year.  Big start, Briggs writes columns about them running the table and making the playoff, by mid-year they are done with that, and yet they are always in the hunt for the MAC title.  They have the best recruiting in the MAC and have been consistently better than BG over a long period.

Last year, the portal bug hit them really for the first time, with DeQuan Finn heading to Baylor and Peny Boone to UCF.

Having said that, the last two games have been absolute classics. In each game, the road team snatched victory with a gut-punching late play. We're back on a Saturday--next year in BG on a Saturday--and we hope it's a good one.

BG is a 3.5 point road dog.

How experienced are they?

28 Juniors and Seniors on the depth chart.  More experienced on defense.

Who are their national leaders?

Braden Awls is #12 in INT per game.

Avery Smith is #8 on passes defended

Bryson Hammer is #3 in punt returns

Jerjuan Newton is #5 in receiving TDs

Maxen Hook is #6 in Solo tackles.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +1...9 turnovers lost and 10 gotten.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

So, we don't know who is going to start.  Tucker Gleason was the starter and was injured at UB.  John Alan Richter took his place, rallied them and then QB'd the Rockets past NIU last week. Gleason has played quite a bit and was #2 in the MAC in passing efficiency when he went down.  Richter had a rougher game against a good NIU defense.  Neither one of these guys is DeQuan Finn, but both are high-quality MAC QBs.

What is their scoring and yards per play

The Rockets score 29.6 PPG, which is #4 in the MAC. They only get 5.4 yards per play, which is middle of the pack. BG's defense allows 21.4 points per game, which is 3rd.  The Falcons allow 5.4 yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

It is not what it once was. They are averaging only 3.2 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.8 per rush, 9th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #2 in passing efficiency.  BG is #3 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They have run and passed almost equally, sack adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  37% overall, #7 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

4.5 points per trip, which is not great.  They have 9 empty red zone trips.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 3.8 points per trip allowed, #9 in the nation. BG has forced 4 scoreless trips and 10 FGs in 31 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

They do...sacks on 4% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 9.5% of passing attempts.

Defense:

UT does not have the high-powered offense they have had in the past.  They do however, have what is probably their best defense.

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #2 in scoring defense in the MAC (19.6) and 2nd in yards per play allowed (4.9).  BG scored 25.1 which is #5 and 5.8 yards per play which is #3.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They do.  #2 in MAC at 3.2 yards per carry. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #5. 

Can they be passed on?

They are #4 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 59% completions, lead the MAC with 8 INT, They do allow over 11 yards per reception.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency. 67% completion is #2 in MAC. BG has 11.4 yards per completion.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

UT allows 35%, which is #5.  BG converts 39%, which is #3.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They allow 4.8 per trip, which is pretty good. Forced 11 FGs in 26 attempts.   BG offense scored 4.5 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not bad, they have sacks on 6.3% of passes. BG allows sacks on 6.9% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are #6 in net punting.  No blocks, 0 TD.  FWIW, BG is #20 in the nation in net punting.

Punt Return?

They are good, #9 in the country.  Plus one blocked kick.

Placekicking? 

He's pretty good.  8 of 10, long of 48, only 1 miss under 40.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 29, which is really good.  One TD as well.

Intangible Miscellany

On the plus side, BG has tended to show up to play for this game.  They will need to. BG has yet to beat a team with an FBS win...and the FCS team we beat is winless, too.  BG will need to bring the A&M game to have a shot.

I think it's going to be a relatively low scoring game.  I think the key for BG is going to come on the offensive line.  This is a big boy assignment and BG needs to run the ball and protect Bazelak. We also need to have our WRs get open--that will be a big assignment against this defense. With that, BG has a real shot.

The stadium will be filled and hopping.  It would be a huge win for the program and give us a real shot at making it to Detroit.  We can still make it with a loss, but probably would need to win out.