Football Preview

This is a big season. Bowling Green has been in the wilderness for a long time.  In fact, its the worst stretch in program history and it isn't close.  It started with Babers, a coach looking to make a quick exit, and then one of the least successful hires in the history of college football.  Then, Loeffler comes in committed to a long-term rebuild.  The last truly competitive team was in 2015, and that was a title winner.  

Loeffler has been here six years.  Originally, year five was promised as a year to contend for a title, but that didn't happen.  There was progress.

This year, BG needs to reach the levels that were promised.

It is not a given.  A couple things.  Last year, BG struggled with a very tough early schedule...sure...also threw away a winnable game against Liberty and were smoked by Miami and Ohio.  As tough as the early schedule was hard, the later schedule was just as easy and BG won the easy games.  They either nearly beat UT or blew a big lead at home and collapsed in the last 3 minutes--you pick. 

Also, BG had a big turnover differential, which can be tough to replicate.

BG will need to be better this year.  Rather than going from awful to decent, they have to go from being good to consistently tough to beat, which is just as tough if not tougher.

There's good reason to think that will happen.

First, BG is picked third or fourth in the division-less MAC.  That would be a good place for this team to land.

The schedule is better but not easy.  BG has an off week after Penn State and a fellow G5 after Texas A&M.  We are in the pod of death, playing NIU and UT every year.  Having said that, NIU is at home and BG finishes with league-favorite Miami at home after Thanksgiving which, in a dream scenario, could be for a trip to the MAC title.

FWIW, only two teams play three P4 teams--Akron, Kent and Miami (Northwestern, Notre Dame and their traditional game with UC). Five teams play two--BG, Ball State, NIU OU and WM.  Four play only one...UB, CMU, EMU and UT. 

Offense

For me, the offense has been the biggest disappointment of the Loeffler era.  We might be in a position to admit that he is not an offensive guru, along with scattered fans across college football. We have been OK at times on offense, but at no point did I think we were better than the sum of our parts.  When we had the right players out there, we were OK.  Otherwise, not so much.

BG has improved on the offensive side of the ball.  In 2021, they were 11th in scoring.  In 2022 they got it to 8th and last year BG was 3rd.  (MAC games only).  Similarly, in 2021 we were 12th in yards per play, moving up to 9th and then 5th last year.

So, for 2023, BG was third in scoring and fifth in yards per play.  The difference between the two is that BG was #2 in the MAC and #13 in the FBS in turnover margin, allowing the Falcons to score with fewer yards.  If those turnovers don't materialize, BG will need better offense to get points.

You can also look at a specific situation.

BG-UT, 4th Quarter.  Defense gets a 3 and out and BG has the ball, up 6, with 5:42 left.  UT has 2 timeouts left.  A couple first downs, and the game should be over.  At a minimum, you should be able to force UT to use their timeouts by running the ball.  Unfortunately, BG has no confidence in their ability to run the ball, and goes three and out with 2 pass plays, both incomplete.  They make 0 yards and kill only 1:06.

I know we had injuries.  We're a championship offensive team when we finish that game with the ball.

Similarly, BG got the ball back with 1:41 left, down 1 point.  Starting on their own 31 they have a shot to get into FG range...BG had three incompletions and a sack.

I know we had injuries.  We're a championship offensive team when we get that into FG range, as happens so often in football.

The table is set.

• Conner Bazelak was picked as the #2 QB in the MAC by Phil Steele. (I will be pleased to see this happen, I might have had him down a couple spots).
• Terrion Stewart, a truly game-changing RB is back.
• Harold Fannin, is back at TE.  He's another game changer.
• Despite huge turnover at WR, we are ranked #3 for recivers.
• And finally, BG offers an OL that is experienced and #3 overall.  Transfer Nick Reimer is the only expected starter who is a Senior.  

Honestly, beyond the usual caveat about staying healthy, BG has only a couple of things that could present challenges.  There is decent depth at QB, but at RB we don't have a #2 that we have seen that is the equal of Ta'Ron Keith.  Wimberly was getting there, but got injured in Spring practice. We may have someone--there are like 12 guys in the RB room--but we haven't seen it yet.  Stewart is capable of a lot of touches, but taking some of the load off--or filling in if he gets injured again--will be critical.

Secondly, we are untested after the starting five on the o-line.

Defense

BG's defense was as good as it has been since Babers left... in 24 finishing #7 in scoring defense (.5 points per game behind Toledo) and #4 in yards per play.  This side of the ball has steadily improved over time as well, could get better, and is clearly good enough with offensive support to play in the title game.

And again, this unit can be better.

• BG has the top-ranked DL in the MAC.  This is incredibly important--BG has been gashed on the ground often over the dark years.  Held opponents to 3.6 yards per carry last year and something similar would be a huge help. 
• BG should still be able to rush the passer.  Cashius Howell transferred but Hardamon is expected back and BG should be able to get pressure, forcing sacks and throwaways, especially since we have a good D-backfield.
• The backfield, despite losing Huskey and Simms (to LB), has two portal additions and is a top backfield in the MAC.
• LBs should be competitive with upside if Simms adapts to his new position.  Sipp was All-MAC.  BG is also shallow at LB, but hopefully the Dline keeps blockers off them and makes their job easier.

Special Teams

• BG was middle of the pack in kicking and punting.  The same guys are back.  Hopefully, the offense scores more TDs and there is less action for both of them--or anyone that might replace them.
• BG's return game was strong. Given the number of touchbacks and unreturnable punts, this is becoming less of an issue, but BG does have plenty of players who can contribute here.

It's time.  Fans have waited....with varying degrees of patience.  We don't need any more "there are no excuses, but COVID" press conferences.  It certainly appears we can be better on both sides of the ball and have a chance for that Miami game to be meaningful.  It will require sustained strong play.  The ESPN FPI index has us going 9-3, losing to TAMU, PSU and UT.  The NIU game will be key, but we need to be on point every week...something we have rarely done.

We will also find out whether the program's leadership is capable of putting game plans and adjustments in play that make us consistently tough to beat.  Also not always the case.