What is their body of work?
Ball State is a team that has had success in recent memory, but by and large have struggled. They had big years under Brady Hoke and Pete Lembo took them to a ten-win season....in the 9 seasons since then, 8 of them were losing. They won the MAC during the COVID season. Their coach, Mike Neu, a MAC MVP QB at Ball State during his player career. He is probably on the hot seat. In his 8th year, he is 21-37 in MAC play. (This is a Huger-like situation).
They are 2-6 and 1-3. They lost to Kentucky, Georgia, and Georgia Southern (in Muncie) and none were close. They won their FCS game and then also beat CMU, just last week. They lost to Western, Eastern and UT (close).
BG hasn't played Ball State since 2015. Further, since 2000, we have only played them 7 times. FWIW, BG has won 7 of the last 8.
BG is a 6-point favorite.
How experienced are they?
They have 26 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is youngish.
Who are their national leaders?
There are none in the top 20.
What is their turnover ratio?
They are -6, 11 worse in the nation.
Offense
How is their QB play? (MAC Games only unless noted)
It's been a journey. Their starter from last year transferred to Illinois. They started the year with Layne Hatcher, who has been at a bunch of schools. True FR Kadin Semonza started the next three and then Hatcher started the two after that. All along, they were using multiple QBs. Kiael Kelly started the UT game and the CMU game. BSU pressured UT but it was a low-scoring game. In the CMU game, though, Kelly was 13 of 16 for 101 yards (safe throws). He was 19 for 99 rushing against UT and 15 for 64 and 2 scores against CMU. It appears like he is clicking. He is a R-FR from Tampa who had thrown only one pass coming into the year. He started the season opener at WR.
What is their scoring and yards per play
They are 10th in scoring and 5th in yards per play in the MAC--that's the result of the turnovers.
Can they run the ball?
They do. They are #4 in the MAC in yards per carry. Marquez Cooper is #5 in the MAC in yards per game.
Do they pass the ball?
They are 7th in passing efficiency. Most relevant is how they have done with Kelly, which you have seen above. It's RPO heavy, according to Coach's presser. A lot of EYE VIOLATIONS.
How is their run/pass balance?
They run on 52% of their plays.
Do they convert on 3rd Down,
Not really. They are 9th in the MAC at 31%.
Do they score in Red zone?
Not great, 4.5 per trip. Only 5 TDs in 11 trips. (Also impacts the yards/score disparity).
Do they protect the QB?
Not really. They have been sacked on 9.6% of their passing attempts. A more mobile QB might make a difference.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play
They are 9th in scoring defense and 5th in yards per play.
Do they defend the run effectively?
This is their defensive strength. They are #2 in the MAC, allowing 3.2 yards per rush. Toledo ran for 210 against them. BG is 3rd in yards per carry, right behind Toledo. This will be a key element to the game. As Coach mentioned in his presser...teams are going to load up to stop our running.
Can they be passed on?
They are 11th in pass-efficiency defense. They allow 61% completions, 6 TD and 0 INT, 11 yards per completion allowed. Great time for BG to get well in the passing game.
Do they get off the field on 3rd down?
They are 9th at 41%. (BG is last on defensive 3rd down).
Do they defend in the red zone?
Not really. They allow 5.1 points per red zone trip.
Do they pressure the QB?
About average, sacks on 6% of passing attempts.
Special Teams:
Punting?
They are 5th in net punting. Not blocked in any game.
Punt Return?
Not much. 4 return for -9 yards. No blocked kicks.
Placekicking?
All games, he is 8 of 10. Long of 37, 8-8 inside 40. Blocked once.
Kickoff?
All games, their KO defense is poor. Teams start on the 31 and they have given up a TD.
Kickoff Return?
Typical, teams start on the 26.
Intangible Miscellany
Both teams are playing better and both teams are looking to secure bowl eligibility. Both teams have coaches on a hot seat. We don't have any recent meetings to judge by. It will be at home, but in front of a MACTION crowd. BG is favored and you'd expect to win, but BSU is playing better. Coach said that he wants to see a Georgia Tech-type effort in our four final games. That would be great. One thing at a time.
No excuse for not winning this one. Hopefully a nice crowd despite the chilly weather. Must win for Loeffler.
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