Rocket MBB Preview

So, here come the Toledo Rockets.  Rivalry game.

Toledo hasn't been to the NCAAs since 1990.  They have had some really good teams and their program is in really good shape, but they just seem to have weird things happen in the MAC tourney.

They were picked #2 this year by the MAC and they were picked to win by Blue Ribbon.  They are 14-6 overall, which is nothing special, particularly against the #196 non-conference schedule. They are 5-2 in the MAC....they lost @Kent as well as at home to Ball State...they have 4 straight MAC wins, @NIU, OU, @UB and EMU.

UT is 6-4 in the last 10 games against BG and 3-2 at Savage over that time.  Our last trip there at the end of last season was a low point for the program.

When you look at the Rockets, you see a team that can really score. Their pace is 5th in the MAC at 70 possessions, but they lead the MAC at 1.21 points per possession.  This is an incredible number.  It means averaging what BG scored against CMU.  They are 14th in the country in offense.  Since 2002, no team has ever finished about 1.18 points per possession in MAC play. 

BG is 2nd in scoring.  UT is #9 in defense and BG is #10.

So, UT gets there with scorching shooting and taking care of the ball.  They are #2 in the MAC in shooting at #20 in the country.  They are #1 in turnovers and #11 in the country.  They aren't great on the boards, but they get to the line and make 73%.

They try 39% from 3FG, which is #3 in the MAC. They make 41% from 3FG and 54% from 2FG, both of which are really good.  

The other side is really similar. BG is the #1 shooting team in the MAC and #2 in offense. UT is #7 defending the shot. BG's issue has been turning the ball over, and UT doesn't do anything special forcing turnovers.  They are not great on their own boards--they play without a post player in a 5-out approach--but they don't foul.  That is a hallmark of Kowalcyk's teams.  They don't foul.

They do not defend the 3FG well.

RayJ Dennis is their leading scorer at 17.1 PPG. He shoots 51% and 27% from the field. He also leads the MAC at 5.7 APG and a 3.3 A/T Ratio.  He's a really good player.

The second leading scorer is JT Shumate at 16.4 PPG. He shoots 52% and 48%. He also leads the team with 6 RPG.

Setric Millner scores 14.7 PPG on 54% and 52% shooting.  Very efficient.  He's #4 in 3FG shooting in MAC. Dante Maddox is scoring 13.7 PPG on 50% and 49% shooting.

Tyler Cochran is scoring 9.7 PPG but UT announced he would be going on medical redshirt.

Honestly, if the good Falcons show up, this has the potential to be an extremely exciting game, especially if you like scoring.  

BG will help its case by limiting turnovers and taking advantage of their rebounding.  Also, Agee is a player UT will have trouble matching if he can come at it with focus.