What is their body of work?
New Mexico State started playing football in 1894, 16 years before New Mexico became a state. They have really struggled to keep football alive here. They were in the WAC and then the WAC dropped football following the big conference realignment in 2012. The Aggies were an indepedent for one year and then joined the Sun Belt for four years. They were football-only and the Sun Belt eventually dropped them (and Idaho). The Aggies played the last 5 seasons as an independent, which is really rough in today's game. For much of that time, they really struggled. Still, they persevered. Next year they will join C-USA.
Since 2000, they are 75-193. Over the last 50 years, they are 162-412.
They have a very good coach now. Jerry Kill is there. He is a bona fide program builder. He took NIU to 8-0 in MAC play before losing to Miami in the conference championship. A kidney cancer survivor, he then went to Minnesota where he suffered seizures on the sideline that caused him to leave that job. He had off-field jobs for a while and now is on the sidelines again.
They were 6-6 this year. They got a waiver to be in a bowl game. On their normal schedule they were 5-6. Their game against San Jose State was postponed after the death of a Spartan player shortly before the game. They were only able to schedule FCS Valpo to fill the spot.
So they were 6-6 and 4-6 in FBS games. They lost their first four games, (Nevada, @MN, @UTEP and @Wisconsin) before beating Hawaii at home, losing to FIU at home, beating their rival New Mexico at home, winning @UMass, Beating Lamar at home, losing @ Missouri and then winning @Liberty and beating Valpo at home.
The Liberty game was noticeable. They were 24 point dogs and they won the game by an amazing 35. That was the week Hugh Freeze was leaving for Auburn, so it may have been a California Bowl situation.
This is the first game between the two teams.
How experienced are they?
They have 26 juniors and above on the roster, which is typical amount.
They lost 2 contributing players to the portal:
LB Nick Giacolone (16 tackles, 11 games)
P Josh Carlson--#1 punter, heading to Arizona State
Who are their nationally ranked players?
They have no players ranked in the top 20 in any category.
What is their turnover ratio?
They are -5.
Offense
How is their QB play?
His name is Diego Pavia, and he's a pretty good one. Clear dual-threat QB, he completes 52% of his passes...but for over 15 yards a completion and 11 TDs over 5 INT. He is also their 2nd leading rusher.
Pavia was injured in the Valpo game. Kill says he expects him to play, barring a setback.
They actually use 2 QBs much of the time. Their other guy is Gavin Frakes, a true-FR. He completed 50% of his passes with 4 TDs over 7 INT. He also has dual-threat ability.
What is their scoring and yards per play--Note that they played 2 FCS games, along with UMass, New Mexico, Hawaii, etc.
They scored 25.6 PPG, which is a little better than BG. They had 5.7 yards per play, which is better than BG's 5.0.
Can they run the ball?
They average 4.5 yards per rush. BG's is 3.0, 6th worst in FBS.
Do they pass the ball?
It isn't great. They are #102 in the country and BG is #69.
How is their run/pass balance?
They have a very strong run identity, with runs on 60% of their plays. This is the exact offense he ran at NIU...run the ball and throw over the top.
Do they convert on 3rd Down?
They are not great, 36%, 99th in the country. Unusual for a run-focused team. BG had 34%.
Do they score in the red zone?
They are pretty good at 5.5 per trip.
Do they protect the quarterback?
Yes they do. Sacks on 5.2% of pass attempts.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play
They allow 24 PPG, while BG allows 33. They allow 4.9 per play, BG is at 5.0.
Do they defend the run effectively?
They are pretty good, allowing 3.9 yards per rush....noting that mixes with a very ineffective BG rush offense.
Can they be passed on?
They are pretty good. #26 in the nation.
Do they get off the field on 3rd down?
At 37%, they are pretty good.
Do they defend in the red zone?
They are decent at 4.8 points per trip.
Do they pressure the QB?
Yes, they get sacks on 7.2% of passing attempts. BG has 8.3%.
Special Teams:
Punting?
Their punter has left. Kill is not worried, he has a guy named George Eberle and feels he will be fine. No in game punts, but he is a JUCO transfer.
Punt Return?
They get a lot of punt returns. They returned 23 of 57 punts. BG had 14 out of 51. No TDs but 7 yards per return.
Placekicking?
He's OK, but not a lot of attempts. 6 of 9, long of 46.
Kickoff?
Opponents start on the 23, which is pretty good.
Kickoff Return?
They start on the 29, also pretty good.
Intangible Miscellany
BG is a 3.5 point favorite, which I think is about right. This is not a slam dunk. BG is a 6-6 team capable of good efforts and poor efforts. Let's hope we bring the good effort in the cause of creating the consistency we need to be where we want as a program. With a good effort, we should win this one.
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