MBB Preview

MBB will start tomorrow with an exhibition game in Morgantown, WV.

When we last saw our team, things were not good at all.  We were coming off three straight winning seasons in forever.  Yes, we had lost Justin Turner, but we had Plowden, Fields and Diggs back and some promising transfers and were picked 6th in the MAC.

Things did not turn out like that.

At all.

We started with a kenpom of 139.  We finished with a kenpom of 284, our lowest ranking since at least 1997, when kenpom started.  That's worse than the last Dakich years, the Orr years or the post-Jans years.

To begin with, BG's starting guards were supposed to be Matheny and Fields, and both of them missed all or most of the season.

Later in the year, Myron Gordon and Joe Reece were dismissed from the team.

In the meantime, BG played the worst defense it has played since at least 1997.  They were #343 in the nation in defense, out of 357.  They were poor on almost all defensive metrics in the MAC.

BG went 2-9 in their last 11 games.  The last 6 losses were by 16, 27, 9, 14, 9 and 40 points.  The last one was to UT, so it stung the Falcon faithful especially hard.

BG did not qualify for the MAC tournament. This in a year when the MAC was the #20 ranked conference....normally they are around 13.

The natives are restless, to be sure.

And you can understand that.  

So, looking toward this year.

First, Diggs, Plowden and Matiss were out of eligibility. Caleb Fields, Cam Young and Josiah Fulcher transferred.

BGSU returns the following players, of whom (as far as we know) 6 are on scholarship.  In addition, Etim did not see action this year.

• Kaden Metheny
• Brenton Mills
• Isaac Elsasser
• Chandler Turner
• Samari Curtis
• Gabe O'Neal
• Jackson Watson
• Ubongabasi Etim

So, we need new guys.  Seems to be the world we live in.

BG has 7 newcomers to the roster.  Four are transfers

• Rashaun Agee, via NM State and JUCO.  The highest ranked recruit we have, he is 6'8."
• Sam Towns, who came from OU after playing behind some good players.  He is 6'9".
• Leon Ayers III, a double-figure scorer at Duquesne.  He's a 6'5" G.
• Madanni Diarra, a 6'11'' wide load guy from JUCO.

Three are Fr.

• Willie Lightfoot, 6'0" G.
• Anthony McComb, G, Dayton, big scorer and 3FG shooter in HS and Prep
• Jamai Felt, a 6'9 FR, highly regarded.  Did not play in the scrimmage.

It will be interesting to see how the starting lineup shakes out tomorrow.  I'd guess Matheny, Curtis and Agee are in the mix.  Beyond that, we will have to see.

BG is picked 9th in the MAC in the MAC poll and 11th or 12th among most other pundits. It is not surprising at all.  That's what you would expect, based on the last thing we saw.

Kenpom starts us at a 276, which if played out, would leave us the 2nd worst team since 1997, only slightly better than last year.

Of course, there are surprises and turnarounds every year.  Can BG be one of them?

BG is a lot longer than they have been in a while. I think this will help them create some mismatches on the wings on both ends of the court.

The most important thing, by far, is that BG has to play better defense.  BG has historically not played great defense while Huger has been here.  The 2019 team was the only one in the top half of the NCAA. The 2021 team was average, and BG has to at least play average defense to compete this year.

How can that happen? Well, BG had a deadly combination last year.  They were easy to shoot against and didn't force turnovers.  So, you have a high number of shooting possessions and they were going into the basket.  BG was last in FG defense, 11th in defending the 3FG and 12th in defending the 2FG.

BG needs to be harder to shoot against.  BG's opponents had the highest percentage of 3FG attempts...and at the same time had a hard time keeping defenders in front of them.  Another last place defense and BG won't be heading back to Cleveland.

BG was fifth in offensive efficiency last year.  If they can get to 7th defensively (a huge improvement), that would put them on the track for a winning season.  

You're going to have Matheny back, which should help the team score. (We were #10 in the MAC in A/FGM). BG took good care of the ball, was decent on the offensive boards and at getting to the line and at FT shooting.  They were 8th in overall shooting and that will need to improve.  In particular, BG had a 2FG heavy mix of shots and only made 49% from 2FG.

With some new players and one returner who did not perform to his historic level as a shooter--but without Plowden and Diggs (and Gordon and Reece)--I'd suspect we're about where we were last year, maybe a little bit better.  The offense could improve a little, but the defense has to improve a lot.

On paper, you'd think making it to Cleveland would be a good goal for this year.  Of course, the larger question is the direction of the program.  Huger's contract extends through 2025...which is this season and two more.  And a new AD is in town but that's two years to buy out if he decides to make a move.

Reports are that donors are not feeling good about where the program is.  You can see that. Huger is not on a rebuild.  He had the team's best-sustained success (somewhat sadly) in decades, but last year was really bad when you are thinking you might be a consistently competitive team.

The Frack money weighs heavily here.  There are legitimate questions about what the money has been used on.   But this is one program that can't cry poor and that's going to be part of the evaluation for Huger.

I'd love to see us exceed expectations and be comfortable moving into the next season.  With so many newcomers, it is really hard to know what to expect.  There is nowhere to go but up....and at the same time, there is a long way to climb from last season.