Will Sadness Accrue Again? Football preview.

There are two ways you might measure how deep this trough has been for our football program.

1.  A commenter noted that it might be our best team in 7 years and he might be right and we wouldn't even need to be that good.

2.  If you google "sadness accrues," this blog shows up on the first page.

Sigh.  Maybe, just maybe, it can happen this year.  Time will tell.

So, here's a preview of what I think we might see this year....or need to see.

The dominant narrative is the coach.  I understand many people disagree and have already given up on him.  My view is that this is what he has promised and if he finishes the job and brings us back to where we were, it's the best thing for the program.  I'd love to see the program succeed and not have to have a new coach re-tool everything.  I think we are on track for Loeffler to get it done.  Perhaps I am wrong, but that's how I feel.

At one point, it seemed like 6 wins had been set as an official metric for a contract extension--even one year.  With a new AD, I'm not sure how that will play out....or even if a new AD will be in place in time for prime coach hiring season in early December.

It would be nice to answer the questions and keep building.

So, how does this best in 7 years team look?

I think a forgotten key is the defense.  Coach said that he had tried to build the defense first, "like Clawson did."  It's badly needed.  BG has not finished above #8 in scoring defense since the 2013 season--the last year Mike Elko led our defense.  Most of the time, we have been last or 11th.  It has been an awful 9 years for the defense.

So, even being average would be a help.  I think we have a shot.  We were defending pretty well until Brand and Ferguson got injured.  They are back now, additional talent and depth has been added and we have what I think is a pretty good DC now.  In fact, he might be the best coach we have.  So, there's reason to think the defense will be a contributor this year.  We were 11th last year, allowing 36 a game.  If we cut 8 off that, we'd be in the middle of the pack.

There's reason to think that could happen.  BG was #6 in yards per carry and #3 in pass efficiency defense last year, results aren't reflected in points allowed but are something to build on.

Formula for "success:"  Have a defense that gets off the field.

Next, we turn to the offense.  The key is the offensive line.  BG's line was dreadful last year with way too many FR to compete.  If you can't block, you can't do anything. You can't run and you can't pass.  It's clear that the staff recognizes this, because they brought in 7 transfers to go with the existing 3 returners on the offensive line.  It was all-hands-on-deck, desperation time. We saw how it all shook out with the depth chart yesterday.

Yes, we are older and stronger.  We will be better.  We are still pretty young on the line, though and none of the guys who transferred here were stars at their previous school (or they probably wouldn't be here).  Also, there will also need to be chemistry among a line made up mostly of people who never met each other until this year.  

So, yeah.  We will be better.  Will we be good enough?  That remains the key question for the season.  Will we have the 7th best line?  Fourth?  Third?  I'd suspect something in the middle of the pack.  Anything less is a disaster.

BG was 10th in yards per carry last year and the best runner won't be back.  However, there is depth at this position and if they can get support from the offensive line, I think the backs are good enough to move the ball.  It's vital.  BG needs a balanced offense to succeed.  I don't think there's any reason to think we can succeed it if we rely solely on the passing game.

Which leaves us with the most important position on the field: QB. As with every team, you will pretty much go as far as your QB takes you. And you've seen our record.  Look, no doubt, we haven't given McDonald much of a chance to succeed during his time at BG.  We've lacked linemen and WRs.  There has been no running game to speak of.  So, he hasn't really had an optimal situation to show what he can do.

Having said that, I haven't really seen him exceed expectations either.  Coach Loeffler has bet his entire head coaching career on McDonald.  Other QBs he has recruited have transferred rather than wait behind McDonald.  At every chance, Coach has bet on McDonald, even when he was injured.  I know Loeffler's got this reputation as a QB-guru (at least some of which is shameless hype)...but this bill has come due. 

When I ask for evidence that McDonald is what Loeffler feels like he is, I get practice tape from Boston College and last year's OU game, when our line was able to protect him because most of OU's defensive line had COVID. He was effective in that game, to be sure.

Look, I hope the line protects him and the running game is effective and he pays off this bet.  Because if all those things don't happen, then we're back in the wilderness again.

Also, I hope he stays healthy.  We don't need to hear about him playing half the season with a serious injury again.  We also don't need to have to replace him, with unproven players in the #2 and #3 slots.

Last thing.  The kicking game is a big question mark.  We have a first-year punter from Australia.  And right now the field goals are looking to be split between our kickoff guy and a transfer from West Liberty. Let's hope we can get punts off and don't need a game-winning FG for winning #6.

The schedule is not easy, but I don't have any sympathy for that.  You're in year 4 of a rebuild and you promised we would be competitive in the MAC.  It's time to compete, not wish for an easier schedule.

The Marshall game will be key to getting to 6.  If BG beats EKU and Marshall (at home), then a 4-4 MAC season gets the team to 6-6.

I am hopeful that BG finally has a competitive team.  I am hopeful that Loeffler pays off on the rebuilding he was promised.  If those hopes don't pay off....sadness accrues.