BG MBB Defensive Analysis

Look, if you have been watching BG Men's Basketball this year, it will be no surprise to you.  BG doesn't defend well at all.  From Toledo--a legit scoring machine--to offensive laggards KSU and CMU, everyone scores points on our team.

So, it got me to look back.

A few caveats.  I'm using points per possession from kenpom, which provides us the best opportunity to compare teams through varying styles of play (tempos) which would impact points per game allowed.  For example, BG plays 72 possessions a game, #13 in the country, and during the Orr years, BG dropped under 63 once.  There's a rule change in there, too.

So, we are using adjusted points per possession, which means that it has been adjusted to reflect the competition.  It includes D-1 games only and data goes back to 1997.

BG is allowing 1.11 points per possession, the worst defensive team BG has had since at least 1997.

Now, all those other figures are year-end, so it's possible it doesn't end up that way.  But for right now, it's the worst.

We are #328 in the country in defensive efficiency, which means there are only about 30 teams below us.  It is the lowest a BG team has been ranked in this period by 100.  (Overall D1 scoring peaked in 2018 at 1.04 points per possession and is down to 1.01 this year.  This year is the lowest rate of free throws since at least 1997, as the freedom of movement initiative is forgotten.)

The next worse seasons are:

• 2018 (Huger), 1.08 points per possession and 233rd
• 2017 (Huger) 1.07 and 205th
• 2016 (Huger) 1.07 and 205th
• 2004 (Dakich) 1.06 and 228th
• 2006 (Dakich) 1.06 and 230th

A couple observations.

It's not even close, really.  .03 points per possession is actually a pretty big difference. 

Also, I'm sure you are noting the Huger name on those first 3 lines.  My point would be that Huger had issues when he took the program over, so you look at those numbers in one light and these--in his 7th year--in another.

Obviously, you can win with bad defense.  Over the last five years, BG is 7-36 when allowing 1.11 points per possession or worse.  They are 1-8 this year.

Breaking down the components, it isn't that this year's Falcons are completely awful at any part of defense--they excel at nothing.  (Note these are not adjusted, they are raw numbers).

EFG%:  #281

TO%  #261

OR%: #233

Free Throw Rate: #221

2FG%: #281

3FG%: #265

In comparison, the 2018 defense was really good on the boards and keeping teams off the line, but easy to shoot against and forced few turnovers.  The 2017 defense was good at everything except defending the shot.

This year's defense is just doesn't get results on any key factor.

And our track record is that we can't score enough to get out of that box.  We could score enough to cover up below-average defense, but not defense this ineffective.

The 2019 team, Huger's best, played defense at 1.02 points per possession.

Anyway, what you are seeing is confirmed with the data. If BG is going to do anything, they are going to have to dramatically improve their defense, something that is hard to imagine.  But who knows?