OU Preview #2

 And on we go.

The final MBB game at the Stroh for 2022.  Woof.

So, the last game is the OU Bobcats, one of the top 3 teams in the MAC.  OU is 23-6.  Their only losses are to UK and LSU and UT (twice), Kent and Akron.  The home loss to Akron is the only one remotely falling into a bad category.  The only thing they have is an odd propensity to lose big when they do lose...Kentucky by 18, LSU by 15, UT by 18, UT by 15 and Kent by 23.  The UA game was 8, their closest loss.

OU won the first meeting between the two teams at the Convo by 8.  BG never led, but for most of the game the lead was 8 or less and it was 1 inside of 10 minutes, so it was not a blow out.  BG scored 1.07 points per possession and OU had 1.17, a familiar pattern this year.  The game was relatively evenly matched except for OU having a good day on the offensive boards and getting a lot more free throws.

So, since it has been a while, let's look at the comparisons. OU is #4 in the MAC in offense and BG is last in defense and #341 in the country. When BG has the ball, it is a little better matched, with BG #5 in offensive efficiency and OU is #3 in defense.

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Breaking that down a little, OU is a good at the two key factors.  They are #3 in shooting and #2 in not turning the ball over. BG is the worst team in defending the shot and only #9 in forcing turnovers.  They are not great on the offensive boards but they are good at getting to the line, although they make only 70% of them, which is #10 in the MAC.

They shoot the highest percentage of 3FGs in the MAC.They are #6 in making them and #3 in making 2FGs.

On the other side, they are a really solid defensive team.  They are #4 in defending the shot, but lead the MAC in forcing turnovers, are #2 on the defensive boards and #3 in keeping their opponents off the line. They defend the 3FG really well.  BG is a below-average shooting team and takes decent care of the ball. 

They are led by Mark Sears, the #3 scorer in the MAC at 19.8 PPG.  He plays 36 minutes a game, and shooting 47% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG, the latter of which is really good.  He gets to the line ALL THE TIME.  He has shot 109 FTs, leading among the MAC's top FT shooters, and make 90%. He is also #4 in assists, #5 in steals and gets 6 RPG.  

They have two other really good players.  On is Ben Vander Plas, who scores 14.5 PPG, shooting 65% from 2FG (4th in MAC) and 32% from 3FG.  Overall, he is the #8 shooter in the MAC. He leads the team with 6.9 RPG.  He leads the MAC in steals.

Then there is Jason Carter, the guy who transferred to Xavier and then transferred back. He's scoring 14.2 PPG and getting 5.8 RPG. He's shooting 57% from 2 FG and 30% from 3FG.

They also have Tommy Schmock, who is scoring 9.1 PPG after transferring from Findlay.

This is a really good team that has not really had a bad loss this year.  Whether this is the first, seems unlikely, but who can ever tell.

WMU Game, where we are now

There's no point in going through a recap of yesterday's game.  BG led by 9 with 16 minutes left against the worst team in the MAC. Over the next 16 minutes, they were outscored 38-18 and lost by 11, giving WMU their first road win of the season in a WALKAWAY.

There is virtually no chance for BG to make it to Cleveland.  They would need to at least win one over OU or UT and that could not look less likely to happen. Even with one win, it would take a lot.  Basically, we need to beat out CMU or Miami, who each have six wins and also play each other.  The loser of that game has to lose their other game. Also, NIU and EMU have 5 wins.  EMU plays CMU, so one of them gets to six wins also.  In a Miami, EMU and BG three-way tie, BG would get the spot.

But that's not really relevant. Because the reason you want to get to Cleveland is because the regular season doesn't matter that much and what really matters is winning three games in Cleveland, and if you get there you have a shot.

Except in this case. There's no reason to think that BG has a shot to make that happen.  It would be the kind of thing they would have a movie about.

• They have lost six straight and 8 of 9. They last lost 7 straight in Huger's opening season.
• They are now ranked #284 in the country, the lowest since at least 2002. Orr, Dakich, never this low.
• We are likely to finish 5-15 in the MAC.  That's our worst MAC season since Dakich's last season.
• This happens in a year when the MAC is the 20th ranked conference, the lowest since at least 2002

So, you know, pull a miracle and play UT in the first round, possibly finishing the year with two losses to the Rockets in a row.

In fairness, this team expected to have Fields and Matheny in action.  But that's only part of the story.  They should not be struggling like this.

If you want my guess--and I have no inside information whatsoever--I think Huger and Moos will both be back next year.  But that's just a guess.

The problem becomes, how does this ship get righted.  You have a risk of player outflow either way and you saw this year the downsides of a bunch of transfers.  We're not in a great spot.

WMU MBB Preview, Part II

 On to Western Michigan.

BG comes in with a five-game losing streak.  WMU comes in at 2-15.  Certainly not a marquee matchup, but who knows?  Maybe that yields a good game.  WMU did beat Akron, which BG most decidedly did not. It is senior day for BG.  The Falcons have a bleak situation as it relates to getting to Cleveland but without this game, it is certainly a lot bleaker.

WMU played hard in the first matchup. They led with less than 3 minutes left to play. From there, Plowden put the team on his back and scored 7 straight points to put the game away.  BG had a decent game on the defensive end--though WMU is 11th in the MAC in offense--and BG made 58% on 2FG and 42% on 3FG to score 1.14 points per possession and get the win.

Western has the leading scorer in the MAC, Lamar Norman.  He's a Duquesne transfer and he's efficient, shooting 52% on 2FG and 37% from 3FG.  He also makes 80% of his FTs. He made his 20 points in the first meeting but it took him 24 shots.

He's the only double figure scorer on the team.  They also have Markese Hastings, a Butler transfer, who is scoring 9 a game and getting 9.9 rebounds. He's the second-leading rebounder in the MAC. He had 9 points and 12 rebounds in the first game.

Mileek McMillan had 15  in the first match (Valpo transfer). Mack Smith had 10.  Both off the bench.

So here we go.  Three games left. 

Cato June Leaves BG

One last piece of news from yesterday, as we learned that Cato June was leaving the BG football program to go to the Indianapolis Colts as an assistant LB coach.

June spent just less than one year with BG.  He was on a lot of recruit tweets giving offers and coached a position group that I felt was part of an improving defense last year.

Be interesting to see how this hire shapes up.

MAC MBB Lands Verbal Commit

Bowling Green has landed a commitment from @OSLBasketball Jamai Felt.

Ultra-athletic 6’9 southpaw who is mobile and as quick off his feet as it gets. @BigticketMai @BGSUMHoops

🎥 @RealScoutBBall pic.twitter.com/Pcv00ms7MA

— Adam Finkelstein (@AdamFinkelstein) February 22, 2022

So BG Men's Basketball has a verbal commit.  His name is Jamai Felt and there's a lot of positive info about him.  He played in Baltimore and then moved to the Bronx, where he is finished high school.

According to this article, he was a guy with 2 DII offers who was known as a shot blocker and a dunker.  The author of the article said that he immediately viewed Felt as a diamond in the rough.  He had offers from SMU and Towson.  Later, the article says that he developed his skill set over the next year.

Welcome to the Falcons, Jamai.

Falcon MBB Loses at JAR, That's 5 straight

As expected, BG dropped their game to Akron last night at the JAR.  

It was probably a little worse than the final score indicates.

Akron led for 34 minutes and BG led for 2.  The first half was reasonably competitive, staying mostly within one possession and ending up with Akron up 3.

The second half saw UA slowly put the game away.  They got it to 8 with 17 left, but then BG shaved it back to 2 over a couple minutes.  With 12:15 UA had the lead to 9 and by 10 left they had it to 11.  It went over 10 to stay with 9 minutes left, got as high as 16 with 5 minutes left and ended at 14.

The thing about the overall scoring is the pace of the game.  As noted in the preview, Akron plays the slowest pace in the MAC.  In fact, it was a 60 possession game.  BG average in the low 70s and the UB game had 85 possessions.  At 60, it was the slowest game BG has played since 2016.

So, when Akron gets 82 points on only 60 possessions, it's shockingly efficient offense.  In fact, it was BG's worst defensive effort of the season, by this measure, slightly worse than the last time we played Akron.

BG didn't have a bad offensive game--1.14 points per possession--but nowhere near what was needed to overcome the points they were letting Akron score.

The Zips made 71% of their 2FGs.  The MAC average is 51%.  That's the best 2-point shooting since UT smoked the Falcons at Savage in 2018.  Meanwhile, they also made 39% of their 3FGs--which is also above the MAC average of 34%.  They took good care of the ball, had a good night on the offensive boards and shot a ton of FTs and made 75%.

Meanwhile, BG shot 65% on 2FGs but only 29% from 3FG.  They took good care of the ball but didn't do much offensive rebounding, shot only 16 FTs and made only 9.

Samari Curtis has a nice game, scoring 21 points on 5 of 7 from 2FG and 3 of 6 from 3FG.  Plowden had 14 on 4 of 9 and 1 of 3 shooting and 6 rebounds and Mills finished with 12 on 5 of 7 2FG shooting.

So on it goes.  BG is now 5-12 in the MAC and on a five-game losing streak.  It is very difficult to see them making the tournament at this point, but there are five teams with 5 or 6 MAC wins right now.

Even so, you hope to make the tournament and catch a run, and there's been nothing to suggest this team is ready to do that.

Akron Preview #2

Now the Falcon MBB team head to the JAR, which has been a chamber of horrors for the program.  BG has lost 16 of the last 18 in Akron.  Now, the good news is one of those two was the last one, as BG won by 12 last year.

In general, though...a place of very little success.  

Also, we are about as poor at home against the Zips.

BG battled Akron on January 20 at the Stroh and it was super ugly.  The Zips beat BG by 25 on their home floor. Plowden called it "embarrassing."  You can see the number below.  You combine that kind of shooting with hardly any turnovers and you're going to be really tough to beat.  They made 53% on 2FG and 52% on 3FG.  In fact, on a per-possession basis, it was a worse defensive game than the UB game when BG gave up 112.

Bryan Trimble came into the game making 3 of 23 from 3FG and then went off for 10 of 14 against BG.  Trimble did not play in their last game, and Coach Groce said he decided Trimble "needed a break from the team."  No idea if he will play tomorrow.

One note.  BG plays the fastest tempo in the MAC.  Akron plays the slowest.  In fact, only 10 teams play a slower possession rate than the "Zips" do. 

The Zips are struggling a little.  They have lost 3 of 4, including WMU and NIU, and the NIU game was at the JAR. They are 10-6 in the MAC and in 5th place.

Beyond Trimble's 33, Ali had 15 on 14 shots, Castenada had 14 on 10 and 6 assists, Tribble had 11 on 7 shots and  Freeman had 9 points and 10 rebounds in the first game.

For the year, Freeman is averaging a double-double and leads the MAC in rebounding and FG%. 

Plowden had 20 in the first game and Gordon had 12.

Going to be a tough one for BG, as it always is at the JAR.  BG has one win against the top 7 teams in the MAC this year.  If this season has any chance of not finishing up where it is heading, this would be an opportunity for BG to pick up a second one.

Falcon MBB Plays Better But Not Good Enough, Loses

BG certainly played a more energetic and active game and played better defense than they have been, but it wasn't good enough to win.  More in a minute, but BG now has a very difficult road to Cleveland and the season is likely to end at Savage on a Friday night.

It was a highly entertaining game.  There were 12 ties and 18 lead changes.  There were 8 ties and 8 lead changes in the 2nd half alone.  No team had a run more than 8 and no one led by 10 points at any time. BSU had the better of it, leading for 23 minutes to BG's 10.

With 2:48 left, BG was up 1.  Sadly, the story is bad from there.

Tyler Cochran made a lay up and then BG turned it over and Baumbalough, who had been cold all night, nailed a 3FG and BSU was up 4 with 1:57 left.  Win probably shifts from 40% to 80% in one minute. Curtis drove to the paint and missed, got his own rebound and scored to make it a 2-point lead again. 

Tyler Cochran was fouled and split the pair to make it a 3-point lead with 1:17 left.

Here was the key possession. BG had 3 shots at the basket and failed to score, leaving BSU with a rebound and foul with :45 left.  BG failed to score the rest of the way and BSU made all 6 FTs.  The whole thing ends with a 12-2 BSU run to put the game away in the last 2 minutes.

The final was 91-82 but the game was played at a very high pace, 84 possessions, so those numbers don't reflect incredible numbers.  BG has played over 80 possessions in the last two games, which is the only time this year they have played D1 opposition at that pace. Going back, you have to go to 2019 before there's another MAC game over 80 possessions.

In fact, BG had a poor offensive night at .97 points per possession.  They shot poorly, had an average number of turnovers, and did not get to the boards.  They did get FTs and made 70%. BG made 57% on 2FGs, the best since the WMU game.  BG also shot 20% from 3FG, their worst since the EMU game.

Meanwhile, they gave up 1.08 points per possession, which is better than it has been but still a tough number to win with.  BSU out shot them, making 49% from 2 FG and 39% from 3FG.  All three numbers are right around average.  Turnovers were pretty even, BSU had better offensive rebounding and had a better day at the line, helped by those 6 last minute FTs.   Ball State made 81% at the FT line.

 

Samari Curtis led BG's scoring with 18.  He shot 5 of 8 from 2FG and 1 of 5 from 3FG.  He added 6 assists and 5 turnovers. Plowden had 17 on 5 of 12 and 0 of 4 shooting and 6 rebounds.  Matiss had a really nice game, with 17 points in 19 minutes, on 6 of 7 and 1 of 2 shooting and 4 rebounds. Cam Young had 10 points, with 2 3FGs and 5 rebounds in 15 minutes.

So, it's rough.  

BG is 5-11 with four games left.  That includes @UA, WMU, OU, @UT.  Not hard to see that working out with 1 win and a 6-14 finish.  

There are 7 teams in the conversation for the 6-8 seeds.  BG is one of them.  Of the other 6, BG needs to be better than 4 of them to make the tournament. At 6-14, they don't catch Ball State and with one Miami win they don't catch Miami....who plays CMU twice and EMU at home in their last five games.

Knowing that, BG needs to finish ahead of CMU, NIU, EMU and WMU. NIU has 5 wins but probably end up with 6 and BG has the tie-breaker. CMU has 5 wins and plays Miami twice.  Win one of those and they ace BG out.  Tie-breaker will not apply because CMU is only playing 19 games, so there will be no tie.  EMU has 4 wins and 4 remaining games, but plays NIU and WMU and could get to 6 but BG would have tie-breaker.

If BG wins only the WMU game coming home, it is hard to see them making the tournament.  Most likely, they finish ahead of WMU, EMU and NIU but behind CMU.

If BG wins 2, that all looks a lot better, but it also doesn't seem too likely.  Anything could happen.

BSU comes to town

So, from the smoldering ruins, the schedule goes on.

BG MBB has Ball State Saturday at the Stroh.  Already struggling, the program might have had its worst week since the end of Chris Jans.  You have a catastrophic performance and then dismiss your second and third-leading scorers from the team and now you're back to playing.

The Cardinals were picked #8 in the MAC in the pre-season. They had an unremarkable pre-season and played BG in the opener in Muncie on New Year's Day. This was one of those games that BG lost that they should have won.  BG led most of the way and led by 6 with :43 left. From there....

BSU got a basket to cut it to 4 and then Samari Curtis was fouled with :31.  He hits the first FT to make it 5. He misses the second one.  Bumbalough was fouled on a 3FG and made two of the 3 to get it to 3.  He missed the last one, but Miryne Thomas got the rebound and put it back to cut the lead to 1 with :23 to play.  Before BSU needed to foul they turned Gordon over and then Thomas hit another to put BSU up 1.  BG missed a buzzer beater and BSU had the win.

Out of the 4,756 games in D1 this year, it is #51 in terms of comebacks.

Since then, Ball State has had an unremarkable season.  Their highlight was beating UT in Muncie, but they have lost 4 of their last 5. They are 6-8 in MAC play.  Much like Bowling Green, they have generally beaten the lower teams in the MAC and lost to the better ones...the UT game as an exception and they lost their last one, a home game against NIU on Tuesday.

For the season, Ball State is #6 on offense and on defense.  As we all know, BG is dead last in defense and has fallen to #5 in offense. In fact, our attack is comparable to Ball State's whereas our defense is way worse.

When the Cardinals have the ball, you have a decent shooting team against the easiest team to shoot against in the MAC.  They are #6 on 3FG and #5 on 2FG, whereas BG is terrible defending the 2FG and poor defending the 3FG.  They do turn it over, but BG does not force turnovers.  The Cardinals do get to the line but they are #10 in the MAC at making FTs.  They take a typical number of 3FGs.

When the Falcons have the ball, it should be pretty evenly matched.  What we have done is what they allow.

Their leading scorer is Payton Sparks at 16.3 PPG.  He shoots almost all 2FGs and makes 58% which is pretty good.  He's a FR and a good bet for the All-Freshman team.  He also averages 10.3 RPG.  He leads the MAC in drawing fouls/40 minutes and is #2 on the offensive boards.  He had 20 points and 9 rebounds in the first game, making 7 of 10 from the field.

Tyler Cochran is scoring 13.5 PPG and 5.7 RPG.  He shoots 47% from 2FG and 34% from 3FG.  He is a transfer from NIU.

Miryne Thomas is scoring 12.3 PPG.  He's a good shooter from both 2FG and 3FG...he is top 25 in the MAC in both.  He also averages 5.8 RPG.  He only scored 8 in the first game but had 14 rebounds.

Finally, Luke Bumbalough scored 11.1 PPG.  He's a 3FG specialist and makes 36% of those shots.  He plays heavy minutes.  He has 21 points and 4 assists in the first meeting.

Ball State relies on their starters...they get only 27% of their minutes from the bench.

So, look.  Who knows what we are going to see?  These things can sometimes go right and sometimes go wrong.  This doesn't feel right to me, but we shall see.

BG MBB Dismisses Reece and Gordon

Myron Gordon and Joe Reece Dismissed from BGSU Men’s Basketball Teamhttps://t.co/gZIutBULXr

— BGSU Men's Basketball (@BGSUMHoops) February 16, 2022

This is a WOW.  Very disappointing.  Both young men were transfers to the program who had made contributions during the year.  The release only says that they failed to maintain the standards of the program.

So a rough year gets a little rougher.

Wishing them the best as they move on with their lives.  More to come.

Oh the Humanity

Oh, the humanity.

Just over 1,000 days since BG played in the MAC Final and looked to return most of the players from that team, we are watching the MBB program completely crater.

Most of us understood the early struggles of the Huger years.  The Jans debacle had left the program in rough shape.  This occurred in year 7.

UB came onto BG's floor and absolutely embarrassed the Falcons.  They scored 112 points, the most ever allowed by a Falcon MBB team.  We allowed 111 to Murray State in 1955, 110 to Loyola in the 1960s and 109 to Clemson in the early 80s.  But this was the most...and on our home floor and to a team in our conference.

The game was played at an incredibly high pace...85 possessions, the most in a Falcon game going back as far as 2002.  On a points per possession basis, in fact, it was the second-worst game this season.  But as much as I like the analytics, that buries the lead in this situation.  Supposedly a fast pace suits us...but we were completely dismantled on our home floor by a team in our conference.  For the second time this season.

UB made 67% of their 2FG attempts, which is almost exactly what they did in the first meeting.  The difference was on the offensive boards, with Mballa back.  BG had no answer here.  UB got 55% of the available offensive rebounds, tied for the most allowed by BG since 2002.

Meanwhile, BG had 1 point per possession.  When scoring 1 or less, BG has no MAC wins.  We just don't defend well enough to win with that amount of scoring.

But the disaster is on the defensive end.  And it has been.  UB drove to the basket at will and owned the offensive boards.  I don't have anything to compare this to, but UB shot 78% inside the charge arc and BG shot 59%.

BG is last in the MAC in defense.  We are #328 in the county, out of 357 teams.

We are last in defending the shot, #307 in the country.

We are last in the MAC in defending the 2FG, #303 in the country.

You can certainly see that last one with the eye test.  We don't keep guys out of the paint, we don't help effectively and when there is help the rotations aren't there.  UB moved the ball really effectively in the paint for easy baskets.

This is just not where we should be in year 7.  Yes, I understand that the team is playing without 2 starters they would have expected to have.  That has to be included in any assessment.  But it just seems inescapable that something way more fundamental is broken.

UB Preview for MBB

So on we go.

UB is next up.  The Bulls were picked to win the MAC and had 2 projected All-MAC first-team players.  It has not unfolded like that.

The Bulls are 7-4 in the MAC.   They beat BG back in early January 5 to go 1-2 in the MAC.  That was the start of a 4-game winning and they have won 7 of their last 9, starting with the BG game.  The only losses in that run were to OU and UT.  Their other losses are to MU and @UA.

In the first game, UB beat BG 99-88 at Alumni Hall without Josh Mballa and Tra'von Fagan.  It was the kind of game we have become used to.  BG scored 1.14 points per possession, which is good, but allowed 1.29 points per possession, which is very poor.  In fact, 5 weeks later it is still the second-worst game of the season for BG on the defensive end.

UB made 66% of their 2FGs, without Mballa. UB had almost 30% on the offensive boards and got to the line 35 times, making an incredible 33.  It was the highest Free Throw Rate allowed by BG by a big margin.

Meanwhile, BG shot only 50% on EFG, which was 56% on 2FG and 27% on 3FG.

The game was played at a very fast pace...77 possessions per game. BG was down 3 with 9 minutes left, but UB went on a run and led by more than 8 for the remainder of the game.

UB had 3 guys put 20+ on the Falcons and another at 16.  Williams had 21 (6-12 2FG and 1 of 2 3FG), 6-6 at the line and 7 rebounds.  Ronald Segu scored 20 (5-6, 0-2) 10-11 at the line and 7 assists over 2 TOs.  David Skogman had 20, making all 6 of his shots, all 6 of his FTs and added 15 rebounds.  Maceo Jack scored 16, shooting poorly but going 8-8 on the line.

Curtis had a big game for BG with 25 points, (6 of 7 and 2 of 5) and 7-9 at the line. Joe Reece had 15 points (5 of 8 shooting) and all 5 FTs. Plowden had a rough 14 (4 of 11 and 2 of 3) and 9 rebounds.

The season could not be going more poorly right now.  It has been  BG has not being one of the MAC's top teams this season and you have a hard time seeing it happen here.  But who knows?

Miami Blows Doors Off BG MBB

Ouch.  That was absolutely ugly yesterday.  And the result is that BG is now in real danger of not making it to Cleveland--and wouldn't if the tournament started today--and if they did would face UT or OU in the first round.

Playing like this, that's really not the point, though.  After the NIU win--a game BG should have won--you hoped to see some strong performances strung together.  Instead, BG has lost the next 2--both on the road.  At 5-9 in MAC play, they finish with 4 of 6 at home, but also UB, UT and OU in that 6.  A 7-13 MAC season is possible.  Of BG's 5 wins, 4 of them are against WMU, NIU and EMU.  The other one one is Miami in the first meeting.

The fate might have been sealed when Dalonte Brown was back.

Anyway.

BG came out playing pretty well.  With 9 minutes left in the first half, they were up 5. Then, the wheels fell off.  It was 24-19 for BG.  Miami reached a 99% win probability with 12 minutes to go.  In that 17 minutes of basketball, Miami outscored BG 51-19.  By the time there were 8 minutes left they had the lead over 30.  BG did rally at this point, eventually getting to the lead to 16, which was the final margin.

Let's not let that obscure the real story.  MU blew the doors off the Falcons.

The RedHawks had come into the game struggling to score.  Yes, they got a key player back for this one.  They scored 1.19 points per possession which is a winning number for the team that scores it.  They shot very well.  That's 64% on their 2FGs and 34% on 3FG.  The former number is really good.  It's the 4th time in MAC play BG has allowed 60%+ 2FG shooting.  Turnovers and offensive rebounds were a wash.  BG got to the line more but only made 59%, where as Miami was 15 of 17 at the line and ended up +2.

These are overall stats, which include BG's garbage time rally.  You can imagine what it might have looked like at the end of the Miami run.

BG scored .99 points per possession. BG shot 46% from 2FG and 30% from 3FG, neither of which is anything to brag about.

Dalonte Brown scored 14 on 2 of 2 and 2 of 4 shooting and added 4 rebounds in 17 minutes.  There was no point in pushing his ankle once the game was decided.

For BG, Myron Gordon had 20 on 4 of 8 and 1 of 2 shooting, made 9 of 14 FTs, had 5 assists over 2 turnovers and 4 steals. Trey Diggs had 11 but was 1 of 8 from 3FG.  He added 11 rebounds. Chander Turnver had 10.  Plowden scored 8 on a really rough shooting night.  It was the first time out of double figures since the OSU game.  He did have 9 rebounds.

Josiah Fulcher and Gabe O'Neal did not play.  Metheny missed his 11th straight game.

Very little redeeming in this game. UB comes to BG on Tuesday and then Ball State on Saturday.  

BG MBB vs Miami Preview, Part II

 BG is back to the floor with the Miami RedHawks from Millett Hall.

BG played Miami on January 8 and won in OT at the Stroh.  If you don't recall, BG generally had the better of the play, but couldn't put it away as Miami rallied late in regulation to get the game to OT and then BG had a 4-point lead in OT and really need one hoop to put it away but instead had three empty possessions and ended up need clutch Gordon FTs to close the door.

Miami was picked to be #6 in the MAC this year and then opened with an ACC road win @Ga Tech.  That hasn't aged well, as the Yellow Jackets have not ended up having a good year. 

The RedHawks lost five straight in pre-MAC play and did the same in MAC play.  They are 4-8 in MAC play after breaking that 5-game winning streak with a win over WMU and even in that one they by 9 well into the second half before rallying to beat the winless Broncos.

The losing streak coincided with the injury to Dalonte Brown, who has missed the last six, essentially.  In the Miami student paper this week, Owens said that there is no timetable for his return, which suggests he will not play today.  You never know.  If he is out, it will be a relief for BG not to see him over there, as the Bowsher grad has made a living on us.  He scored 24 in the first meeting,  He scored 29 and 17 against BG last year and 20 in one game the year before that.

The first game was kind of a typical BG game, slightly outshot but excellent on turnovers with a strong game at the FT line added in. It was a good defensive game for BG, holding Miami to 1.02 points per possession. 

They came into that game as a high-scoring offense.  During the Brown injury, their offense has completely cratered.  They have been below .97 points per possession in each of those games. Their shooting, in particular, has led the decline.

In MAC play, they are 11th in shooting, offensive rebounding and free throw rate.  They take a lot of 3FGS.but are just average at making them.  They make 81% of their FTs, #4 in the country.

Defensively they are easy to shoot against and rebound against.  They do force some turnovers.

In the first meeting, Plowden double-double at 27 and 10 and Reece had 20 and 10.  Aside from Brown, Dae Dae Grant had 26 in the first game.

You have two teams who need a win.  BG and Miami are tied in the loss column for the last ticket to Cleveland.  

MAC MBB Report

A little check-in on MAC Men's Basketball, just because it's a notable year and not in a good way.

Again, using the kenpom rankings...

This is the lowest-ranked season for the MAC since at least 1997, when the data starts.

Right now, the MAC is ranked as the #20 conference, out of 32.  Since last year, when the MAC was #12, we have been passed by Conference USA, Southern, WAC, CAA, Big West, Ivy, Sun Belt and the MAAC.

The lowest the MAC has been ranked since 1997 is #19, which was in 2009 and 2011, one of which was BG's last regular-season title.  The MAC has been as high as #9, the most recent year BG made the conference finals.

What's at work here is not the top of the conference...where Toledo and OU are in the top 100.  The issue is the teams at the bottom.  Remembering that there are 358 D1 teams...

WMU is #342.

CMU is #321

NIU is #300

EMU is #283

Miami is #260

So, 3 teams with a kenpom of 300+.  That is just extremely rare.  NIU was #337 last year and after that you have to 2013 before you find another one--also NIU at #322. They also were ranked #330 in 2012.  Which means that in the last 10 years, there have been 3 MAC teams ranked 300+ and there are 3 this year alone.

These are season-long rankings.  I think CMU has come around and probably is no longer #321 in the country.  But the point remains--the bottom of the MAC is weaker than it has been in a long time.

The 2019 season--the UB 6-seed season--the lowest ranked team in the MAC was at 255 (WMU) and that was the only team under 200.  This year, five teams are ranked behind 255 and most of the teams (7) have a kenpom of 200 or more.

This is just not a very good season for the MAC.

Some other factoids:

• Home teams have won only 55% of the MAC games to date.  Last year it was 54%.  Out of 30 conferences, 21 have a better home winning percentage.  The MAC is typically ranked in the top 10 of conferences on this rank, and in 2008 was first.
• The MAC is #5 in blowouts and #28 in close games
• The MAC is #7 in offensive efficiency and #9 in tempo. Also, #7 in the frequency of 3FGS, though #16 in making them.  MAC is #8 in 2FG and #9 in FT shooting.
• The MAC is 22nd in blocked shots, 24th in steals and 27th in Assists/FGM.

Flashes Complete Sweep over BG MBB

 BG came into the MACC looking to reverse what happened in the first meeting with Kent, when the Flash offense ran wild and dominated the boards.

And BG did reverse that, holding Kent to .97 points per possession and 16% offensive rebounds.  Unfortunately, BG paired that with reversing its ability to score, ending up with an unwinnable .87 points per possession, and Kent won 76-68.

BG didn't play any part of the game very well, but they were dreadful in the first half.  They shot 4 of 15 from 2FG and 4 of 11 from 3FG and had 13 turnovers.  That's an incredible .5 points per possession, half the average the D1 average.

With all that, BG was lucky to only be down 1 at the half after closing on an 8-0 over the last 1:28.  (Imagine what the scoring was for the first 19 minutes).

BG jumped out to a 3-point lead quickly, but Kent had the lead shortly thereafter.  It was competitive for a while and BG led by 3 with 13 minutes left.  Senderhoff called timeout and Kent responded, going on a 17-7 run to lead by 7 with 9 left.  They had it to 10 with 7 minutes left and that was largely it as they held the Falcons off and the lead did not get closer to 7 and that was in garbage time.

The shoot gap was huge.  Kent 53% on 2FG and 46% on 3FG--sadly an improvement over the first meeting--while BG shot 34% on 2FG and 41% on 3FG.  It was BG's worst 2FG shooting since the New Year's Day game against Ball State and BG's worst MAC offensive game.

Both teams struggled with turnovers and took care of business on their defensive boards.  BG was 13 of 20 at the line--not very good--but KSU was worse at 8-15.

BG had four players in double figures.  They scored 16 on 3 of 11 and 2-3 shooting--so a rough 16, plut 8 rebounds.  Matiss had 14 on 6 of 9 2FG shooting and 6 rebounds.  Curtis had 12 points on 2 of 4 and 2 of 5 shooting, plus 2 assists over 6 turnovers.  He also had 5 turnovers against CMU. Diggs had 11 on 3 of 6 3FG shooting.  Myron Gordon had 8 points and 4 assists.  Reece, Fulcher, and O'Neal played a collective 27 minutes with 3 points and 6 turnovers.

BG is now in 8th place with a half-game lead over Miami, who they play Saturday. The Redhawks are really struggling, losing 5 of their last 6 and trailing WMU most of the way last night.  Dalonte Brown has missed the last 6 games with an ankle injury.  

Kent Rematch Preview

 Next up is Kent State.  Kent is 8-4 in MAC play and beat BG 91-83 at the Stroh Center on January 29.

They are 2-0 since then and in the midst of a 4-game winning streak. They have been working through some of the weaker teams in the MAC, though they did beat UT in the opener.

They are 4-2 at home in MAC play this year.

The game at the Stroh was ugly.  Kent plays very physical ball, seemingly daring the refs to call it every time they fouled.  They came into the BG 10th in the MAC in offense, but they are on a huge hot streak, moving up to #7 with big offensive games over MU and EMU.  They have been killing it from 3FG, shooting well overall and have been dominating on their offensive boards.

That's a pretty good model of how they played in the first meeting.  As you can see, Kent shot really well, took OK care of the ball, were great on the boards (both ends) and won despite being -8 at the FT line to BG.

Coach Huger said after the NIU game that BG needs to be tougher in this one.  BG played a good defensive game on Saturday and here is their opportunity to do the same against a team scoring really well.

Sincere Carry hung 30 on BG in the first game.  He 7 of 11 on 2FG and 4 of 8 on 3FG, adding 7 assists and 8 turnovers.  He is #4 in the MAC in scoring and #3 in assists, though he is #1 in minutes played and #6 in % of shots taken. He is #8 in fouls drawn per 40 minutes.

VonCameron Davis had 17 on 4 of 7 and 2 of 5 shooting and 7 rebounds.  Andrew Garcia scored 13 on 3 of 5 and 2 of 2 shooting.  Malique Jacobs scored 11 and added 11 rebounds, 7 assists and no turnovers.  And 2 blocked shots.

Falcons MBB Gets Needed Win, Flash Some D

Coach Huger said pre-game and post-game that the team had worked extra hard on its defense, especially how it was going to handle ball screens.  And it worked.  The Falcons put together their best defensive game in MAC play--by a lot--and went home with an easy win.  It will be interesting to see if they can string a few strong performances together, starting with two road games next week.

BG came out strong and motivated and gradually built an 11-point lead 10 minutes into the first half.  It was 14 points with about 5 minutes left.  Things went a little south from a while, as NIU closed on a 14-4 run--sparked by Leonard Hankerson with 4 3FGs--and had the lead down to 4 at the break.

BG was not going to let that stand.  They had the lead to 12 by the first media timeout. Diggs nailed a couple 3FGs in this run.  With about 13 minutes left, NIU had it down to 8 when Diggs nailed a 3FG to put BG up 11 and the game was never closer than 10 again.  It got as high as 25 and ended up at 22, and BG kept the pressure on and extended their lead.  It was a very solid performance against one of the lower-ranked teams in the MAC, but good nonetheless.

BG scored 1.21 points per possession, which was their 2nd best in MAC play, with the first being the previous game against NIU.  Meanwhile, BG allowed NIU .91 points per possession, which is BG's best MAC defensive game by a lot.  In the second half, they only allowed NIU .85 points per possession.

BG shot the ball well--which they have been since the Akron loss. The Falcons were just OK on 2FG (45%) but were really good on 3FG, with 44%.  BG took 37% from 3FG, which is in the range of their sweet spot.  They are very hard to beat when they try 33% of their FGAs from 3FG.

Anyhow, BG took great care of the ball, was good on the offensive boards and did not get to the line, but made 16 of 18.

NIU really struggled.  They had 1.12 points per possession against BG in the last game, so this was way less.  They had an EFG% of 38%, which is the lowest by a MAC opponent against BG this year.  That's 39% on 2FGs and 25% on 3FGs.  They tried 44% of their FGAs from 3FG, making all that worse. They took reasonable care of the ball, were good on the offensive boards and got to the line pretty well, but made 16 of 21.

In the second half, they made 42% on 2FGs and 18% on 3FGs.

Trey Diggs had 18 points in a bounceback game for him.  He made 6 of 9 from 3FG, led the team with 6 rebounds, and added 3 assists and no turnovers.  Joe Reece played only 4 minutes in the first half, but made a real difference in 12 second-half minutes.  Overall, he shot 6 of 8, all from 2FG, added 4 rebounds, and made 5-5 from the line.  He is a real difference maker for this team.  Daeqwon Plowden had 13 points on 3 of 7 and 3 of 5 shooting--so good but not great--added 5 rebounds and 3 assists with no turnovers.  

Samari Curtis had 5 rebounds and 4 assists and Myron Gordon had 9 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 turnovers.

BG moves to 5-7 in MAC play.  They are solid position to make the final 8.  Having said that, they went 4-3 in the soft part of their middle schedule.  The loss to CMU really hurts.  Anyway, the schedule gets tougher.  The question is, can BG string together some strong performances.  They have only won two MAC games in a row once this year and, you know, 3 is the minimum you need if it happens in Cleveland.

The Kent and Miami game will be really interesting.  BG had a really poor defensive performance against Kent in the last one and it will be interesting to see if BG's new energy and approach can translate to a tough road game.

BG-NIU Preview II (MBB)

BG has NIU in the Stroh Saturday, the first team they are playing for a second time.  Just like the first time, they come into the game needing a win against one of the MAC's lower-ranked teams.  Since the January 18 BG game, NIU has gone 1-4, losing @MU, @OU, Ball State and CMU and then beating WMU by 19 in Kalamazoo.  They are 3-6 in the MAC and BG is 4-7.

WMU is now ranked as out of the 15 worst teams in the country.

BG won the first game by outscoring their poor defense.  BG allowed 1.12 points per possession, which is not good, but scored 1.24 points per possession on their way to a 92-83 win.  Their offense hasn't been close since then, and it was among the top 3 offensive games of the season for the Falcons.

The key was shooting.  They've only shot that well one other time in the last 10 years.  It was enough to make up for turnovers and offensive rebounding, and they got to the line a lot.  As you can see though, they allowed NIU to shoot well and didn't turn them over.  BG was strong on the defensive boards and OK at keeping them off the line.

From the Falcon side, Curtis had 21 points and 5 assists in the game.  Plowden had 18.  Diggs had 16--and then 24 in the next 5 games.  Fulcher had 13 in 25 minutes, Matiss had 12 and Myron Gordon had 10.

BG played without Joe Reece in that game.  He also missed the CMU game, and I don't know his status for this game.

NIU's line up has only changed a little since the BG game.  At that time, they were bringing leading scorer Keshawn Williams off the bench, but he's back in the starting lineup now.  He's effective, scoring 18 a game on 54% 2FG shooting and 55% 3FG shooting--leads the MAC there. He lived up to his billing, hanging 32 on the Falcons in 29 minutes, shooting 7 of 10 and 5 of 6.  He is a transfer from Tulsa.

Trendon Hankerson and Kaleb Thornton are their other 10+ scorers.  They scored 11 and 13 against BG, respectively.  Thornton also had 9 assists over 1 turnover.

BG is really struggling and is only 2-3 at home in MAC play. (Thus far, home teams have only won 52% of MAC games.).  To get anywhere near 9 wins, this is one you need.

BG MBB Defensive Analysis

Look, if you have been watching BG Men's Basketball this year, it will be no surprise to you.  BG doesn't defend well at all.  From Toledo--a legit scoring machine--to offensive laggards KSU and CMU, everyone scores points on our team.

So, it got me to look back.

A few caveats.  I'm using points per possession from kenpom, which provides us the best opportunity to compare teams through varying styles of play (tempos) which would impact points per game allowed.  For example, BG plays 72 possessions a game, #13 in the country, and during the Orr years, BG dropped under 63 once.  There's a rule change in there, too.

So, we are using adjusted points per possession, which means that it has been adjusted to reflect the competition.  It includes D-1 games only and data goes back to 1997.

BG is allowing 1.11 points per possession, the worst defensive team BG has had since at least 1997.

Now, all those other figures are year-end, so it's possible it doesn't end up that way.  But for right now, it's the worst.

We are #328 in the country in defensive efficiency, which means there are only about 30 teams below us.  It is the lowest a BG team has been ranked in this period by 100.  (Overall D1 scoring peaked in 2018 at 1.04 points per possession and is down to 1.01 this year.  This year is the lowest rate of free throws since at least 1997, as the freedom of movement initiative is forgotten.)

The next worse seasons are:

• 2018 (Huger), 1.08 points per possession and 233rd
• 2017 (Huger) 1.07 and 205th
• 2016 (Huger) 1.07 and 205th
• 2004 (Dakich) 1.06 and 228th
• 2006 (Dakich) 1.06 and 230th

A couple observations.

It's not even close, really.  .03 points per possession is actually a pretty big difference. 

Also, I'm sure you are noting the Huger name on those first 3 lines.  My point would be that Huger had issues when he took the program over, so you look at those numbers in one light and these--in his 7th year--in another.

Obviously, you can win with bad defense.  Over the last five years, BG is 7-36 when allowing 1.11 points per possession or worse.  They are 1-8 this year.

Breaking down the components, it isn't that this year's Falcons are completely awful at any part of defense--they excel at nothing.  (Note these are not adjusted, they are raw numbers).

EFG%:  #281

TO%  #261

OR%: #233

Free Throw Rate: #221

2FG%: #281

3FG%: #265

In comparison, the 2018 defense was really good on the boards and keeping teams off the line, but easy to shoot against and forced few turnovers.  The 2017 defense was good at everything except defending the shot.

This year's defense is just doesn't get results on any key factor.

And our track record is that we can't score enough to get out of that box.  We could score enough to cover up below-average defense, but not defense this ineffective.

The 2019 team, Huger's best, played defense at 1.02 points per possession.

Anyway, what you are seeing is confirmed with the data. If BG is going to do anything, they are going to have to dramatically improve their defense, something that is hard to imagine.  But who knows?

"Signing Day" at BG

OK, so it was pretty quiet.  Between the December signing and the transfers we have reported on in the meantime, we have pretty much covered the bases.

A couple of additional names to know:

First, Macquire Moss did sign a LOI.  He's a long snapper from Batavia, IL.

A couple other names have popped up:

First, BG has added Noah Caston, a DB who is a transfer from Walsh. He played 14 games there and was all-conference.  Including this year, he will have 3 years of eligibility.  He is from Sandusky where he played with Stewart and Croom.

Also, Ian Drummond is now on the roster at TE.  He transferred from Elon and enrolled here in the Fall but did not participate in intercollegiate football.  He caught one pass at Elon.  He's 6'4" and 235 pounds and went to Olentangy HS.  He was all-region as a SR.

If you want to see a breakdown of where our roster stands, I can/t do any better than Corey Crisan did in The Blade.  I'd recommend you check it out.

Football Rounds Out Staff

 An opening had popped up for BG when Terry Malone went to LSU.  Here's how that played out.

Those hoping for some kind of impact hire at OC will be disappointed.  Greg Nosal (TEs) and Max Warner (QBs) will be co-offensive coordinators, while Chris Hedden (OL) will be the run game coordinator.  You know, the OC is really Loeffler.  Even though it was announced he wasn't calling plays, he spent a lot of time crouched over his playsheet talking into the headset when we had the ball.  Are you going to get a true OC in under those circumstances?  Whether this arrangement works is still unclear, but it's probably best for what we have to work with.

And at least we didn't get Addazio.

The addition to the staff is Brian White, who will coach RBs.  He is from the Addazio tree, as it were.  He will coach RBs.  He played QB at Harvard and has an MBA from Notre Dame. Starting in 1990, he coached at UNLV, Nevada, UNLV again, Wisconsin (11 years), Syracuse (both as OCs), Washington, Florida (here we connect with Addazio/Loeffler), Boston College and Colorado State, where he was the Senior Associate Head Coach.

So, there was Dayne, Davis and Bennett at UW, AJ Dillon at BC....and a bunch of other stuff.  He was also AFCA Assistant Coach of the Year at one point.

He's an accomplished coach who has been around some very successful offenses and teams that play the way we want to play.  BG has some young talent at RB and if he gets that rounded around with an upgraded line, we can be on our way to being competitive.

MBB Woes Continue

Ouch.  BG's MBB team continued to struggle last night, losing on the road to a team that came in 3-13.  And CMU was in control for much of the game, holding the lead for 22 minutes as opposed to 11 for BG. 

Nine minutes into the game, BG had a 9 point lead, at 23-14.  The lead was still 8 with 8 minutes left and then CMU got back into the game with a 22-8 run to close the half with a 6-point lead.  It was 9 with less than a minute in the half.  BG had 5 turnovers in that 8-minute run.

Coming out in the second half, BG rallied back and had the lead before the first media timeout. It was 51-51 with 11 minutes left and then CMU went on a 10-0 run (3 BG turnovers) to take a 10 point lead with 8 to play.  BG did rally, cutting the lead to 1 with 3:44 to play and then took a 1-point lead with 1:08 to play.

It didn't last as Miller his a layup (what else) to put CMU up 1 with :51 to play. BG missed their shot and fouled the rebounder, who split the pair for a 2-point lead with :33 to play. Turner tied the game back up with :24 to play and had a chance to put BG ahead with the and-one, but he missed the FT. 

So it's a tie game with the shot clock off.  CMU holds the ball for the last shot.  Bissainthe was fouled with :04 left.  He makes them both, BG sets up a desperate play that ends in a turnover and that was it.  CMU won 78-74.

BG had another poor game on defense.  It might not appear so, allowing 1.06 points per possession, which might not appear too bad, but CMU game in scoring .93 points per possession in MAC games.  Meanwhile, BG really struggled on offense, scoring only 1.01, second-worst in MAC play.  BG shot the ball OK but had a terrible night with turnovers--worst in MAC play.  The Falcons were strong on the offensive boards but did not get to the line and when they did they made only 50%.  BG made 40% of its 3FGs, which is good, but 47% of their 2FGs, which is OK but not great.  We simply don't shoot well enough to turn the ball over that much and we are normally a really good FT shooting team.

Meanwhile, CMU outshot BG and had big advantages in turnovers and free throws.  They had an EFG% of 54% against their average of 45%.  They were 16 of 22 at the line.

Myron Gordon had a big night on the offensive end, at least. He scored 24 points on 4 of 6 and 3 of 5 shooting. He was 7 of 9 at the line and had 3 steals.  Plowden had 11 on 5 of 9 and 0 of 3 shooting and 8 rebounds.  Diggs continued to struggle with his shot but had 9 rebounds.  Curtis had 4 assists and 5 turnovers.  Joe Reece did not play.

It is rapidly turning into a very disappointing season.  Coach said we have to play a full 40 minutes to win, which is obviously true.  He seems to say that a lot and you just worry it starts to be a systemic problem when it keeps happening.

The biggest issue is defense.  I'll have a post coming on this soon, but this is a historically bad BG defense.

In fairness, BG played down 2 starters--Matheny and Reece, and a reserve in Cam Young.  As an aside, we beat EMU without their leading scorer, so these things go both ways.

Here are the standings.  BG is in 8th, which would earn them the Rockets at the MAC tourney in the first round.  Note that CMU has played 5 fewer games than BG, so a busy month is ahead for them.  

It would certainly appear that 9 wins would get you there, probably 8.  If you look below and figure WMU is not going to make it, that leaves 3 more you need to beat.  Miami, EMU and NIU are all 3-6.  So with 11 left (assume they all get played), they would need to be 6-5 to get to 9 wins.

The question is, does how many wins does BG get.  They have 9 left.  Playing the way they are now, the question is irrelevant because we have seen nothing to indicate the "make Cleveland and get hot scenario" is in the cards. BG has NIU and WMU on the docket--and both at home--so that gets you to 6 wins.  Can you beat BSU and UB at home?  That would be 8.  Can you win @Miami?  That would be 9. Your others games are @KSU, @UA, OU and @UT.

We might make it.  Unless things change, though, it's looking like a first round exit.