Monday, December 27, 2021

One Last pre-MAC MBB note

 There's an oddity this year in the pre-MAC play...the MAC has 3 teams ranked in the 300's based on kenpom.

This is highly unusual.  Since 2002 (as far back as kenpom goes), the MAC has never finished the year with more than 1 team in the 300s.  It is rare for even one team to finish in the 300s...last year NIU did it and before that, it was 2013...NIU again.

So, one is unusual.  Three in the same year is big news.  (They are WMU, CMU and NIU).

It has driven down the MAC's overall ranking.  The conference is ranked #15 right now, which is the lowest since....2013.  Since then, the MAC has been as high as #9 and usually 12-14.

It also introduces an interesting element to the MAC race.

This year, the MAC is playing 20 conference games.  That means that you play 9 of the other teams twice and 2 of them once.

So who you play once makes a difference.  If you get 6 games against these sub-300 teams and someone else gets 4, then that's a significant advantage.

Of the 9 teams who are NOT below 300, 7 of them play all three of these teams twice:  UB, OU, BSU, UT, MU, EMU, UA.  Two of them play 5 games in this group....BG plays CMU once and Kent is the loser of this lottery, with BOTH of their play-once opponents being a sub-300 team...CMU and WMU.

Maybe it won't play like that.  Maybe WMU, CMU and NIU will exceed expectations.  But, at the start, Kent and BG are at a slight scheduling disadvantage. 

Of course, the only goal you can miss is to fall out of the top 8 and not get to Cleveland.  If those 3 teams are non-starters, than the remaining 9 teams are playing for 8 spots.

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