Football Preview

 Overview/Range:

Overview?  It is not very good.  This year's team is going to struggle to win.  A lot.  I have run the positional breakdowns to demonstrate the youth and lack of depth up and down our roster.  We are, indeed, picked last in the country for a reason.

Look, 0-12 is in sight.  The two most likely wins are Murray State and Akron.  Having said that, Murray State is picked to win their conference (the OVC--making them a poor candidate for an FCS guaranteed win) and Akron beat BG 31-3 last year.

So, yeah....0-12 is in play, leaving BG with a 20-game losing streak to enter 2022.  That would be the streak Temple had when they beat BG and the fans lost their shit.

For perspective.

Fantasy world. I think there are four games BG could win.  You have the two above, plus South Alabama (picked 3rd in the Sun Belt) and at home, and NIU (considered to be about as bad as BG) but the game is in DeKalb.

So, the range is 0 to 4 wins.  Honestly, I think 2 and 0 are equally likely.

What could make a difference:

A couple of things would really help.

Yes, I hear you. Matt McDonald playing better would be key to helping carry the team.  That being said, you need to protect any QB for him to be successful and the o-line is just soooooo young.  So what would help?  An offensive line that plays better than you'd expect, given their youth.  That's one.  But, if you get the protection and somebody gets open, you'd like to see the play made.

Any kind of offensive productivity would help the defense a great deal by keeping them off the field.  Just to fine tune it, BG scored 11 PPG and 5.2 yards per play, both at or near the bottom of the conference.  The middle of the MAC scored 33/34.  Narrowing that gap would help, but would require at least doubling scoring output.

For defense, it's just really hard to imagine.  BG gave up 45 a game last year, second to last in the whole country.  BG had a few players who were producers and they mostly transferred.  There is new coaching, so maybe that helps and there are a couple transfers incoming, too.  Maybe the coaching helps to unlock some improvement and BG gets a few more stops and is on the field less.

What are some small victories?

Honestly, in addition to any wins, I think it would be promising if there were some close games and maybe one that was unexpected. 

BG's margin of defeat was 34 points a game last year.  You'd like to see that narrow a lot as a show of progress--but it is not a given.

State of the program: Should we worry?

This is the big question.  Certainly, a 0-2 win season is not encouraging.  You'd like to be making more progress.  I don't think we're at the point, though, where there's enough talent to figure out if Loeffler can coach or not.

A couple of worries.  First, with all the QBs we have brought in, it sounds like Davis remains the backup. That isn't encouraging.  Similarly, with recruiting at TE and WR, we are still very short of people who seem ready to play.

These are worries because if we aren't recruiting and developing players, there is no chance of us breaking out of this cycle.  These guys just have to develop and in most cases it's too soon to tell, but in a couple cases you'd think you'd see more than you do.

Having said that, I believe that the chances of Loeffler not being on the sidelines when 22 kicks off is 0%.