Preview from Rocky Top...

Smokey

For some schools, winning the National Championship is exciting and then becomes a kind of burden moving forward, leaving no success acceptable once the mountaintop has been experienced.  I'm thinking of NC State in men's basketball and Tennessee in football.

Philip Fulmer won the title in 1998.  You think a guy like that would be set for life in Knoxville, but the reign ended in 2008 at 5-7.  Entering the wilderness, Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, Lane Kiffen and Jeremy Pruitt have prowled the sidelines, with 7 winning seasons in the next 12, no 10 win seasons, two interim coaches, and a lot of disappointment.

Last year was a good example.  Off to a decent start, Tennessee lost 8 of its last 9 to finish 3-7.  They held onto Pruitt (Nick Saban coaching tree) until January when recruiting violations were "discovered" and he was fired.  Late to get a coach, they dipped into UCF to get Josh Heupel.

Installing the Clawfense

It was a rough off-season.  They led the P5 world in losing 25 players to the transfer portal.  In fact, they aren't in a dissimilar position to BG.  The Vols have the least experienced team in their conference, are coming off a disastrous season and looking forward to having nowhere to go but up.  In fact, they are ranked as #126 in experience and BG is ranked as #125.

They are picked to be #6 in their division of the SEC, ahead of only Vanderbilt.  Four of their position groups are ranked by Phil Steele as last in the SEC and only a couple are in the single digits.  

And they are 35 point favorites over BG and ESPN gives the Vols a 97% chance of winning the game.

Looking at the pre-season all-SEC teams, they place four players.  LT Cade Mays on the 3rd team, KR Velus Jones, 3rd, and DB Trevon Flowers, 4th team.  Paxton Brooks is the 2nd team punter.  No real football player can be named Paxton.

Heupel's offensive philosophy should look familiar to Falcon fans...since it is described as being very close to the Briles attack with "elements" of Air Raid.  They will play fast with wide splits, which of course is designed to get playmakers in space and force defensive players to tackle in space.

One guy to keep an eye on is Tiyon Evans, who is a JUCO transfer who was the #1 JUCO RB in the country.

Their DC is Tim Banks, who played at CMU and got his start at BG, as a GA and then as the RB and DB Coach under Coach Blackney at BG.  He was defensive coordinator at CMU on the Butch Jones teams.  For the last 5 seasons, he was co-DC at Penn State.  He runs a 4-2-5 defense designed for today's spread offenses, with few blitzes.  We will see how they align if BG comes out in 12 personnel.

Their special teams are strong, in the upper half of the SEC.

They won the only meeting between the two teams 59-30 in 2015, one of BG's 4 losses that season.

This is the 100th season in Neyland Stadium, the venerable home of the Volunteers.  They are offering a new fan experience, including LED lights and fireworks.

These P5 games are always uphill struggles, and this one might among the highest hills, similar to the 77 put up by Memphis or OSU in the first year of Jinks.

Rocky Top

A Transfer, A Depth Chart and Loeffler Talks

So, a bunch of news flying out of the football program today.  I guess we are going to play football Thursday, huh?

A few notes:

First, BG has a new transfer with significant playing experience at a position of need.  His name is Devin Taylor.  He's from Lansing originally. played 10 games at Virginia Tech last year.  Prior to that, he was at Illinois State where he was all Missouri Valley and also 3rd team FCS All-American. He will have one year remaining.  He will start the year as a backup CB for BG.  

So, the first depth chart is out.  Some things are interesting...

• Two people you'd expect to start aren't listed on the depth chart...Sam Neverov and Tommy Guajardo.  Ali Saad is also not listed.  Austin Osborne (WR) and Davon Ferguson (CB) are starting as transfers. Bryce Brand also is starting at LB.
• Jordan Strack reported that Neverov is injured, leaving BG without its only experienced offensive lineman.
• Tucker Melton did end up as the backup QB.
• Cade Zimmerly is listed as the starting C as a true FR.  Diego Neri is also starting at LB as a true FR.  (That's a wow.  Making your first starting in front of 110,000 at center.)
• Jaison Patterson, true FR, is the backup at TB.
• Jordan Murphy and Andrew Bench are starting after moving from defense.
• Brian Kilbane and Malone Van Gorder are battling it out for a starting guard position.  Both will play, Loeffler said.

Watched the Loeffler presser.  Nothing of any interest, really.  We're young, you might have heard.  Young guys will make some good plays and bad plays.

The biggest thing was that Loeffler looked exhausted.  Just whipped.  Long stretch from the clawing at the screen with energy that we saw from last year.  Hopefully nothing''s seriously wrong....it was kind of jarring.  A much different look.

Football Preview

 Overview/Range:

Overview?  It is not very good.  This year's team is going to struggle to win.  A lot.  I have run the positional breakdowns to demonstrate the youth and lack of depth up and down our roster.  We are, indeed, picked last in the country for a reason.

Look, 0-12 is in sight.  The two most likely wins are Murray State and Akron.  Having said that, Murray State is picked to win their conference (the OVC--making them a poor candidate for an FCS guaranteed win) and Akron beat BG 31-3 last year.

So, yeah....0-12 is in play, leaving BG with a 20-game losing streak to enter 2022.  That would be the streak Temple had when they beat BG and the fans lost their shit.

For perspective.

Fantasy world. I think there are four games BG could win.  You have the two above, plus South Alabama (picked 3rd in the Sun Belt) and at home, and NIU (considered to be about as bad as BG) but the game is in DeKalb.

So, the range is 0 to 4 wins.  Honestly, I think 2 and 0 are equally likely.

What could make a difference:

A couple of things would really help.

Yes, I hear you. Matt McDonald playing better would be key to helping carry the team.  That being said, you need to protect any QB for him to be successful and the o-line is just soooooo young.  So what would help?  An offensive line that plays better than you'd expect, given their youth.  That's one.  But, if you get the protection and somebody gets open, you'd like to see the play made.

Any kind of offensive productivity would help the defense a great deal by keeping them off the field.  Just to fine tune it, BG scored 11 PPG and 5.2 yards per play, both at or near the bottom of the conference.  The middle of the MAC scored 33/34.  Narrowing that gap would help, but would require at least doubling scoring output.

For defense, it's just really hard to imagine.  BG gave up 45 a game last year, second to last in the whole country.  BG had a few players who were producers and they mostly transferred.  There is new coaching, so maybe that helps and there are a couple transfers incoming, too.  Maybe the coaching helps to unlock some improvement and BG gets a few more stops and is on the field less.

What are some small victories?

Honestly, in addition to any wins, I think it would be promising if there were some close games and maybe one that was unexpected. 

BG's margin of defeat was 34 points a game last year.  You'd like to see that narrow a lot as a show of progress--but it is not a given.

State of the program: Should we worry?

This is the big question.  Certainly, a 0-2 win season is not encouraging.  You'd like to be making more progress.  I don't think we're at the point, though, where there's enough talent to figure out if Loeffler can coach or not.

A couple of worries.  First, with all the QBs we have brought in, it sounds like Davis remains the backup. That isn't encouraging.  Similarly, with recruiting at TE and WR, we are still very short of people who seem ready to play.

These are worries because if we aren't recruiting and developing players, there is no chance of us breaking out of this cycle.  These guys just have to develop and in most cases it's too soon to tell, but in a couple cases you'd think you'd see more than you do.

Having said that, I believe that the chances of Loeffler not being on the sidelines when 22 kicks off is 0%.

Positional Breakdown: Safety

Safety (7)

Game Experience (5)

Jordan Anderson S 5-10 200 Jr. (15 games)

Sy Dabney S 6-0 200 Sr. (15 games)

Trent Simms S 6-0 205 R-Fr. (3 games)

Davion Daniels S 5-10 185 So. (3 games)

Patrick Day S 5-11 195 So. (5 games)

On NSD (1)

Matt Kordas S 6-1 175 Fr.

Not on NSD (1)

Victor Vazquez S 5-10 180 Fr.

Positional Breakdown: CB

Cornerbacks (8)

Game Experience (4)

Davon Ferguson CB 5-10 190 Sr. (9 starts at Kansas)

Marcus Sheppard CB 5-11 190 So. (5 games)

Myles Williamson CB 5-10 180 R-Fr. (3 games)

Diata Burns CB 6-0 190 Sr. (4 games)

Listed on NSD (4)

Deshawn Jones Jr. CB 5-11 180 R-Fr.

Elijah Eberhardt CB 5-10 175 R-Fr.

Willie Jones CB 6-2 180 Fr.

Jalen Burton CB 5-10 190 Fr.

Positional Outlook: LB

Linebackers (15)

Game Experience (7)

Bryce Brand LB 6-0 245 Sr. (Played 26 games at Maryland)

JB Brown LB 6-2 230 So.

Darren Anders LB 6-0 230 Jr. (16 games)

Brock Horne LB 6-1 235 So.

Justin Schiets LB 5-11 225 So.

James Miller LB 6-1 215 So.

Demetrius Hardamon LB 6-4 240 Jr.

Listed on NSD (6)

Diego Neri LB 6-2 230 Fr.

Aaron Washington LB 6-0 230 R-Fr.

Jaylen Lawson LB 6-0 205 Fr.

Charles Rosser LB 6-3 220 R-Fr.

Fortune Woods LB 6-2 220 R-Fr.

Brennan Spiess LB 6-2 225 So. (Corrected, thanks to commenter)

Not listed on NSD (2)

Avi McGary LB 6-2 200 So.

Chris Williams LB 6-2 235 R-Fr.

Positional Breakdown: Defensive Line

Defensive Line (17)

Game Experience (8)

Blaine Spires DL 6-2 235 So.

Jordan Porter DL 6-4 260 So.

Karl Brooks DL 6-4 295 Jr. (27 games played)

Walter Haire DL 6-3 275 Sr.

Anthony Hawkins DL 6-2 285 So.

Dontrez Brown DL 6-3 290 So.

Jevon Henderson DL 6-4 285 Jr. (17 games played)

Billie Roberts DL 6-5 295 R-Fr.

On NSD List (6)

Cashius Howell DL 6-4 225 Fr.

Dierre Kelly DL 6-2 270 Fr.

Nate Pabst DL 6-5 250 Fr.

Ali Saad DL 6-3 250 R-Fr.  (Transfer from Minnesota)

Chase Whatton DL 6-4 235 Fr.

Adrian Wilson  DL 6-5 240 R-Fr.

Not on NSD List (3)

John Madden IV DL 6-4 260 Fr.

Denver Warren DL 6-3 300 Fr.

Jack Wardzala DL 6-0 245 R-Fr.

Positional Breakdown: QB

QB (7)

Game Experience (2)

Matt McDonald QB 6-3 210 Sr.

LaBronz Davis QB 6-3 210 So.

NSD List (3)

Drew Gunther QB 6-3 215 So.

Riley Keller QB 6-1 215 R-Fr.

Tucker Melton QB 6-2 215 R-Fr.

Not on NSD (2)

Kody Sparks QB 6-5 220 R-Fr.

Jayden George QB 6-3 190 So.

Positional Breakdown: RB

 Running Back (7)

Game Experience (4)

Terion Stewart RB 5-9 210 R-Fr.

Taron Keith RB 5-10 190 R-Fr.

Trevon Raymore RB 5-10 240 So.

PaSean Wimberly RB 5-10 175 So.

Listed on NSD (3)

Nick Mosley RB 5-10 200 Fr.

Jamal Johnson RB 5-10 195 Fr.

Jaison Patterson RB 6-0 215 Fr.

Not Listed on NSD (0)

Also, one RB among current verbal commits.

Positional Breakdown Offensive Line and another transfer

O line (16)

First, some news from last night.  John O'Brian is in the portal.  Played six career games.

Game Experience (6)

Chris Oliver OG 6-4 295 So. (11 games on defense)

Sam Neverov OG 6-6 310 Sr. (25 games)

Jalen Grant OG 6-3 280 So.

Jeremiah Banks-Wall OT 6-5 280 So.

Jordan Murphy OT 6-4 290 Sr. (13 games on defense)

Brian Kilbane C/OG 6-3 310 R-Fr.

Listed on NSD (6)

Gabriel Brown OG 6-3 315 R-Fr.

Dawson Hildebrand OG 6-3 340 Fr.

Alex Padgett OT 6-6 305 Fr.

Luke Harmon OT 6-4 275 So.

Matt Fortner C/OG 6-3 295 R-Fr.

Cade Zimmerly C/OG 6-1 285 Fr.

Not Listed on NSD (4)

Ja'Von Lyons OG 6-3 330 R-Fr.

Blaine Rader OT 6-4 270 Fr.

Kellen Adler C/OG 6-3 315 So.

Malone VanGorder C/OG 6-3 280 R-Fr.

Positional Breakdown: Tight End

Tight Ends (9)

Game Experience (3)

Levi Gazarek TE 6-5 245 R-Fr.

Christian Sims TE 6-4 240 Jr. (9 career REC, 1 last year)

Andrew Bench TE 6-3 250 So. (None on offense)

Listed on NSD (6)

Griffin Little TE 6-4 240 R-Fr.

Rocco Hicks TE 6-4 240 Fr.

Jaedyn McKinstry TE 6-5 210 Fr.

Bryce Boyer TE 6-3 230 R-Fr.

Zach Russell TE 6-3 245 Fr.

Tommy Guajardo TE 6-3 240 R-Fr. (RS at MSU)

Not listed on NSD (0)

On current verbal list (0)

Position Breakdown--Wide Receivers

Wide Receivers (13)

Game Experience (7)

Javonte Kinsey WR 6-5 215 So.

Jhaylin Embry WR 6-0 180 R-Fr.

Jake Rogers WR 5-9 180 Jr.

Austin Osborne WR 6-2 205 Jr. (Caught one pass at UW)

Nic Kilbride WR 6-3 205 R-Fr.

Cavon Croom WR 6-0 195 Sr.

Tyrone Broden WR 6-4 200 So. (Leading returner with 6 career Rec)

Listed on NSD (2)

Tae'Shaun Johnson WR 5-11 190 Fr. (#1 recruit in class)

Jaylen Smith WR 6-1 185 Fr. (#2 recruit in class)

Not listed on NSD (4)

Nick Niehoff WR 6-2 185 So.

Ty Cook WR 6-1 165 So.

Cole Lakatos WR 5-8 165 R-Fr.

Princeton Hoskins WR 5-10 185 R-Fr.

2 WRs in verbal list.

BG Football. Early Camp Thoughts

 So, camp is on for the BGSU Football program.  We are less than a month from the opening kickoff...I am excited to be back in the stadium, for sure.  Having BG sports out of my life (in personal attendance) has been a big void over the past year and a half.  (I recently attended a Mud Hens game, my first live sporting event since the BG MBB win over Akron in March 2020).

A full preview will be coming, but the headline is this:  nowhere to go but up.  Last year was the worst season for BG football since 1935.  Literally, there was nothing redeeming about it at all.  It would appear that BG will be better this year, but I don't know how many wins that will win.  We are picked to be the worst team in the country and you can understand why.

I'm still onboard with this process.  But this is no fun, to be sure.

A couple things I would say as practice starts.

QB Room

QB is the most important position in team sports, possibly only related to goalie.  Or, TE.  (I kid).

BG has struggled quite a bit since Matt Johnson left.  There were good QBs--James Morgan is on an NFL roster and Doege is starting at WVU. In 2019, BG was forced to slap together its QB position after Doege left and it showed...and then in 2020 it turned out to be worse.  Phil Steele called our QB numbers "shockingly bad."  McDonald was last in the country in passing efficiency.

And it looked just as bad.

No question, the QB position has to improve for BG to have even a remote chance at winning an FBS game.  Yes, McDonald was in his first year and yes, he was injured and yes, he had poor line support.  All true and valid.  Too often, though, when all those things came together to present an opportunity, we still didn't make the play.  Coach Loeffler has said as much.  Beyond getting healthy, McDonald has to get better.

It does appear that he enters camp as the starter.  Most of the backups have been injured as well--Gunther and Melton missed spring ball--but it appears he is the starting going in.  So if you were expecting a wide-open competition, it doesn't sound like that.

McDonald is on a pitch count for fall practice, with only 50 "competitive" reps.  Loeffler said reps with the 2s are being rotated.

How will the defense adjust to a new coach and system?

First, we can certainly hope that a more productive offense takes some pressure off the defense.  Which has been undeniably awful.  In 2019, BG was last in the MAC, giving up 38 PPG.  In 2020, BG was last and a touchdown WORSE per game, and second to last in the country.  From that, most of the accomplished players on the defense who were expected to return didn't.  Honestly, on paper, maintaining 2020's level of production would be a win.

As for fall practice, there are a couple of changes that could influence what happens and any chance BG has to get out of the national basement in 2021.  The first is that Brian VanGorder is gone and has been replaced by Eric Lewis.  He has been a DC before, but he is also not a big splashy hire.  The hope is that a fresh approach will help to improve the defense, but I suspect we are looking at more than a short-term project.

The other thing is that BG is moving to a 3-man front.  On one hand, this is good, because BG has struggled with Dline personnel for years.  Hopefully, it has more to it than that.  Everything in sports is becoming hybrid--from positionless basketball to needing LBs who are also Dbacks.  I assume we are trying to flex into that.

Which makes sense.  The ultimate question doesn't change.  Can you control the line of scrimmage?  Because if you can't, you won't win in the MAC.

How will the Oline come together?

Speaking of which.  Only one team in the FBS has fewer returning starts on the OL than BG does.  And that's Air Force, where guys graduate and they can't bring in transfers.  Anyway, BG's projected Oline starters include 4 freshmen.  This is going to be very rough, I suspect, and it will limit the effectiveness of the offense.  We have better RBs but if there is no daylight, they can only do so much.  And if the passing game has to stick to 3-step drops to protect the QB, that limits things too.  If these guys can play, someday we'll have an all-senior line with tons of playing experience.  But this year, the only direction is up.

Roster Review for BG Football

So the Fall roster is out and I've had a chance to dive into the minutiae we have here.  I've compared the 2021 roster with the 2020 roster...and obviously there is a lot of change.  There are a couple of interesting guys coming in.  Anyway, here is what I found.

Here are the guys we knew were going out, courtesy of the MAC Football Blog:

CB, Caleb Biggers (Boise State)

RB, Andrew Clair (Northwestern)

LB, Kholbe Coleman (Southern Illinois, FCS)

WR, Jaylen Flemmons (Kentucky State, D2)

LB, DeMontae Haigler (Louisiana-Monroe)

WR/LB, Isaiah Johnson-Mack (Saginaw Valley, D2 — as TE)

WR, Noah Massey (Angelo State, D2)

WR, Julian Ortega-Jones (Texas State)

DB, Dylan Pate

LB, Jerry Roberts (Arizona)

WR/OLB, Rodell Rahmaan

C, Cameron Stage (Western Kentucky)

WR, Shon Strickland

DL, Ronald Walder (Eastern Kentucky)

OT, Joe Ware (Austin Peay)

Here are the players who were on last year and are not on this year and aren't listed above.

Jacob Allen:  Walk-on, no game action

Robert Atkinson:  Walk-on, no game action

Damon Blair: Kicker, Walk-on, no game action

Evan Brown: Played 20 games in 18/19, did not compete in 20

Joey Carroll:  See here

Nate Damron:  Walk on, DNP in 20

Daniel Troncalli:  Walk-on, no game action

Javon Venson: Walk-on, no game action

Everyone listed on NSD is on the roster for the Fall.

Previously, we had noted the following transfers coming in:

Davon Ferguson

Tommy Guajardo

Austin Osborne

Ali Saad

There are some new additions, as there always are.

Bryce Brand, LB

Probably the most impactful new name.  Brand is from Detroit and has played Big 10 and Big 12 football.  He was at Maryland for three years, playing as a true FR, redshirting his second year and playing all the games and logging one start.  He moved to WVU, where he played in 2 games.  Roster has him at 6'0" and 245.  He was DL in his previous stops but BG lists him as a LB.

George Carlson, LS

He's from Illinois and came to BG for the Tractor Pull every year.  FULL PULL!

Jayden George, QB

This is an interesting name.  Jayden George is the son of Jeff George, the NFL QB and #1 pick in draft.  Jayden spent his first two years at Alabama as a walk-on.  In high school, he does not appear to have been highly recruited.  He was part of a HS dynasty in HS in Indianapolis, where the Geroge family has fueled 9 state titles, including one under Jayden's direction.

Jarrad Kerekes

Listed as a punter and all-state and first-team All-Greater Cleveland honors.

John Madden IV. DL

Doink!  But no relation.  Attended St. Johns.  Earned second-team All-TRAC in 2020 after helping the Titans to a 4-2 record with 25 tackles and one interception.  Notched 46 tackles, two pass breakups and one fumble recovery in 2019

Blaine Rader, OT

From Findlay.  Earned second-team All-TRAC at right guard in 2020 and earned honorable mention honors in 2019 at left tackle

Victor Vazquz, S

From Miami FL,  he earned MVP honors as a senior at Florida Christian School in Miami.  Notched three interceptions, 300 yards receiving, 400 yards rushing, 10 solo tackles and four pass breakups as a senior

Denver Warren, DL

From Chicago.  6'3" and 300 pounds.  Earned all-conference and all-state honors.

Last notes:

Rocco Hicks was listed as OL when he signed but is listed at TE

Avi McGary moved from DB to LB

Pasean Wimberly moved from WR to RB

Carroll enters Portal

Just as training camp started for the Falcon football team, there was another departure:  Joey Carroll, a St. Francis grad who was a high-profile recruit in Loeffler's first class after taking over (not his first full class).

He was much talked about at the signing day presser that year.  He had been committed to Toledo before he switched to BG and Coach Loeffler talked about him quite a bit at the presser.  He also had an offer from Army and he fit the mold of the kind of guy we were looking for.  

And he played TE.  It looked a little like he might help right away.

They went to him once in the opener of 2019 and it didn't connect.  He never did catch a pass for BG.  They moved him to the Oline and he played every game in 2020.

Anyway, he is moving along.  All the best to him.