Falcons Meet the Zips

 And now the Zips come onto the schedule.

For a while, this would have been a heart-stopping moment of terror for the Falcons, who at one point lost 24 of 25 against the Zips.  Things have improved...BG is now 3-4 against the Zips over the last 7, a significant improvement.  Last year, Akron won by 15 at the JAR and BG won by 18 at the Stroh, in the year's signature--and final, as it turned out--victory.

Akron had a lot of issues with COVID in their early schedule.  When they started MAC play, they had only played one D1 game, a 7-point loss to a really good St. Bonaventure team.  They opened MAC play like gangbusters, blowing OU (with Preston) out by 20 and then Kent by 4, then losing to EMU and NIU and then rallying to beat UT in OT in their last game.

So, big picture...go figure.

Even the UT game is a little misleading.  They more or less stole it, as you can see below.  (Chart from kenpom, used without permission).  When the red line is above the green line, it means UT had a 50%+ chance of winning and the top of the box is 100%.  As you can see, UT was highly likely to win for most of the game.  Akron at one point had a 3.5% chance of winning, the 39th lowest number by a winning team this season.  UT was ahead by 7 just inside 2 minutes and up 3 with :20 left in OT before losing the game.

So, let's take a look at the matchup.  First, the MAC is the 2nd most efficient offensive conference in D1.  The MAC is at.1.058 per possession and the D1 average is 1.017.  Tempo is #11, FWIW.

So, the teams are very similar in offense...BG is #4 in the MAC and UA is #5.  The big test will be on defense.  Akron is good on defense, but #6 in the MAC, while BG leads the MAC in defensive efficiency.  That will be the key...can BG get stops.

So, when Akron has the ball, the key test will be shooting.  They are the 2nd best shooting team in the MAC...they lead the MAC in rate of 3FGA and are #6 in 3FG% and #1 in 2FG%.  Meanwhile, BG is the 2nd MAC defense against the shot.  Otherwise, they are nothing special, they are 10th in rebounds, 7th in offensive rebounds and 10th in getting to the line and 6th in FT%.  So, the key will be shooting.  Akron is helped by their unconscious shooting night against OU, and when they shoot like that they are unbeatable.  Anyone would be,

So going the other way, Akron is #6 against the shot and last at forcing turnovers.  Since, BG rarely turns the ball over, they should get a lot of shots.  UA is good on the offensive boards and is about average at keeping teams off the line.  BG is #2 in the MAC in getting to the line and #1 at making FTs, so if they are getting to the line, that's a good sign. 

Individually, it starts with Loren Cristian Jackson, last year's MAC Player of the Year and the probably favorite this year.  Although, in conference games Turner is scoring more, with better FG shooting, more rebounds, fewer turnovers, a better A/T, and better FT% and more steals.  LCJ is better in 3FG and A/G.

Anyway, Jackson is very good, scoring 21.2 PPG, shooting 43% from 2FG and 40% from 3FG.  Their only other double-figure scorer is Bryan Trimble on 13 PPG on 43% overall shooting and 42% on 3FG.  Trimble is a transfer from St. John's.  Sophomore Enrique Freeman is averaging 7.8 RPG.

This is an excellent test for BG.  Coming off their best win of the season, it would be great to string a couple together.  This will be a very interesting game and one BG should be able to win.