Ball State MBB Preview

So, here come the Ball State Cardinals. It has been a difficult time for the Cardinals this year.  They were picked to be #5 this year, but have faced some unexpected obstacles.  First, their returning MAC Freshman of the Year, Jarron Coleman, has yet to play this year.  And Reggie Jones, who you will remember from two years at WMU followed by time at Tulsa, was supposed to be in the fold, but he hasn't played either.  Both were injured.

Then, on Saturday, they played without starter Miryne Thomas and reserve Jalen Windham due to COVID issues.  

No idea about the status of any of those guys from tomorrow's game.

Overall, they are 4-5 and 2-2 in the MAC.  They beat WMU and NIU and lost to OU and UB.

So, on the basic matchup this one looks pretty one-sided.  The MAC average points per possession is 1.05 and BG leads the MAC in defensive efficiency.  Yes, the NIU game helps the average but BG has held every MAC opponent under 1.02.  Meanwhile, BG is #2 in offense, behind only the Rockets.

Ball State...well, they are average.  They are 7th in offense, 7th in defense, 7th in turnovers, 7th in defending the shot, 7th in 2FG%, the in FT%, 7th in getting shots blocked and 7th in 3FG frequency.  The boys from Middletown are in the middle.

We can see right here where the game will be contested.  BSU is a decent shooting team....5th from 2FG and 7th (!!) from 3FG.  BG is 2nd defending the shot in the MAC.  This is the most important of the four factors.  Only one team has stopped BG from scoring in the MAC, so it stands to reason you are going to need to make some shots to beat us...that will be the key test.

The only team to really stop BG was NIU, and they did it with extreme pace control for half the game.  It was 65 possessions, a number BSU hit in a 10-point loss to OU.  Here, the interesting issues will be turnovers and rebounds.  BSU is #3 in forcing turnovers--while is BG #1 in the MAC and #11 in the country in protecting the ball.  BG hasn't been great on the offensive boards, but maybe this is an opportunity to get some second-chance points.  MAC teams have clearly been trying to keep BG off the FT line...BG is #14 in FT% in the nation.

Ball State has five guys in double figures, which is as much about depth as it is about great players.  KJ Walton is scoring 15.8 per game, and is very effective, making 54% of his shots, all 2FG.  Ishmael El-Amin, who was 3rd-team All-MAC last year, is scoring an inefficient 11.8, on 37% overall and 31% 3FG shooting.  He also missed the second half of the Buffalo game, so we will see how that works out.

Miryne Thomas missed the UB game, but is scoring 11 PPG on 65% FG shooting and 64% 3FG shooting.  He also gathers 5.7 RPG.  He's a transfer from Maryland-Eastern Shore...played some last year.  Brachen Hazen is scoring 11.3 on 57% and 50% shooting, plus a team-high 5.8 RPG.  He is in his 3rd year of the program after transferring from Arkansas.  Luke Bumbalough is also scoring 10 PPG.

So, we will see if BG can keep the beat rolling along.  BG is playing very well right now.  They last 3 wins have not been against the top teams in the MAC--but they were also easy wins.  Ball State is tougher.  You'd like to think you keep the beat rolling along with this one.