2021 Kicks off for MBB

 Now we're back at it, with games coming the way they do in "normal" times.  BG was in Athens this week and now they are all the way over in DeKalb.

Mark Montgomery is in his 10th season with the Huskies.  He won 10 games his first two seasons and then last year was the first year he has been over .500 in the MAC.  They were 11-7.

They lost three starters from that team and it has shown this year.  That includes first-team All-MAC Eugene German, the third-leading scorer in the MAC.  Also, starters Lacey James and Noah McCarty graduated.  Their top returning scorers had 7.5 PPG and the top rebounder was 4.2 RPG.

They were picked #10 in the MAC this year.  BG has won 4 of the last 5, including last year's game and the MAC Semi-final in 2019.

It hasn't been a great start.  They are 1-6 and ranked #307 in the nation in Kenpom.  There one win was over Chicago State, the lowest-ranked team in D1...they have called the remainder of their season off.

They lost by 20 to SIU-Edwardsville---ranked #320--along with a loss to UIC which is, to date, the nation's most epic collapse.  NIU was up 18 inside of 9 minutes with a 99%+ chance of winning and then went on to lose.

They are 0-2 in the MAC.  They took Ball State to OT before losing in DeKalb and Toledo beat them by 23 at Savage.

So, this pretty much tells the story of what's happened so far.  

The average points per possession so far is about 1.01 in the country.  As you can see, NIU is having serious problems scoring the ball.  BG has played subpar defense, however, and we'll see who gets well here.  On the other side, NIU is also having problems stopping other teams, and BG is scoring very efficiently and you'd expect to see that continue against a struggling NIU defense.

NIU is struggling to shoot.  They try very few 3FGs, and for good reason.  They make only 22% of them.  So they focus on 2FGs, and make only 45%, which is well below the D1 average.  They crash the offensive boards, so that's a good number.  They rarely get to the line and only make 65% when they do.

A hidden key here is the rebounding.  They are going to miss a decent number of shots and if BG can clear the boards they will get a chance to increase the tempo and could have a very nice day.

Turning it around, you can see the NIU is easy to shoot on.  BG's shooting is about average for the year, and NIU is #305 defending the shot--and that extends to 2FG and 3FG.  If you see BG missing shots, there's an issue.  To add to the problem, they don't cause turnovers--and BG doesn't make them--and they aren't great on the defensive boards.  They are average at allowing FTs.

The FTs are worth a note. BG is #40 in the country in getting to the line and #4 in FT%.  An average team gets about 19% of their points at the line and BG gets 25%.  BG has the #3, #6, #11 and #13 FT shooters in the MAC.

The leading scorer is Tyler Cochran, a 6'2" So G.  He's scoring 14.5 per game and shooting 48% overall, which is pretty good.  He also leads the team with 7.5 RPG.

Their other two double figure scorers are not so efficient.  Trendon Hankerson is scoring 12.7 PPG and 39% and 29% shooting.  Darius Beane is scoring 11.7 PPG on 39% shooting.  Both of those players also have under-water A/T ratios.  Kaleb Thornton leads the team with 19 assists in 7 games at a 1:1 A/T.

This is a game BG should win.  You don't need it to be pretty, but you need to get the W.  If you don't, this is one that will sting when you add up the results in March.