BG beat OU by 9 at the Convo...believe it or not, BG's biggest win in MAC play. Even so, OU had the lead for the first 25 minutes of the game before the Falcons took control and put the game away. It was never a one-possession game after the 8-minute mark of the second half.
OU is 5-8 in MAC play. They have won three of their last four, though that includes Miami and WMU and CMU....all at home. They lost @ Kent. They are 1-5 in the MAC on the road, with the win at EMU.
Here's how it went in the first game. As you can see, shooting was even. BG won the game because of the extra possessions they generated on turnovers and on the offensive boards and having a net +1 advantage on FTs. Turner had 29 and Frye had 19 for BG. Vander Plas had 25 for OU and Preston had 15. I don't have numbers on this but Vander Plas appears to save his productivity for when they play BG.
So, you have two teams that are basically scoring what they are allowing. Basically, BG is 3rd in the MAC in offense and 9th in defense, while OU is 7th in offense and 6th in defense.
So, having established that OU is #6 in offense, how do they get there. They are 5th in shooting and 9th in turnovers...which was reflected in the first game. They are decent on the offensive boards and they are poor at getting to the line. They are 6th in 3FG and 7th in 2FG and 9th in FTs. BG is last in the MAC in forcing turnovers, so if that holds it would help OU produce more.
Flipping it around, things are pretty evenly matched here. OU is 5th forcing turnovers and BG is #1 at preventing them, so that's an issue. Also, OU is #1 on their defensive boards. BG had a large number of offensive boards in the first game, so that's something to watch. OU doesn't give up a ton of FTs, but their opponents are making 76% of it--that's the highest in the MAC. Nothing OU can do about it, but it makes it harder to win.
Same as shown in our first meeting, Ben Vander Plas and and Jason Preston lead OU in scoring. Vander Plas is scoring 17 PPG, shooting 48% and 33% with 7.2 RPG, a team high. Preston has scored 16 PPG on 51% and 37% shooting, making him the more efficient player. He's 2jnd on the team in 6.8 RPG and leads the MAC with 7.3 APG and is second in A/TO ratio. (Laster is #1). Both of these players are sophomores.
Dartis, a senior, is scoring 12.6 PPG, shooting 38% on mostly 3FGs. Sylvester Ogbonda also gets 6.6 rebounds.
So, based on what has happened this year, BG should win this game and hit 11 for the season, a key step in their drive for a bye. They are also in the running for the regular-season title, for which a win is essential.
Dylan Frye will be back. It will be interesting to see how the team reacts and how Dylan reacts. Players miss a couple games with injuries all the time, but this is a little different. Hopefully he's refreshed and we get the guy back who started the season and the team molds back around him. If so, this game should be a W. They are all needed.
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