The Rockets had high expectations this year...not as high as BG, but high. They were 8-2 at one point, then had a five-game losing streak, including two MAC games (both away) to be 8-7. Since then, they have won 3 out of 4, beating WMU and losing to CMU at Savage and then winning at Akron and OU. The Akron win was big. No one else has come close to the Zips this year.
They are playing well now and, as noted in the latest Briggs column, have as good a chance as anyone in a wide-open MAC. They also have a long NCAA drought...not as long as BG, but long. It's a solid program and Kowalczyk can coach.
The series is trending wrong. UT has won 9 of the last 10, with the one exception being that OT classic at the Stroh a couple years ago with the Zack Denny shot.
They are scoring the ball. In MAC play, they are second in offensive efficiency at 1.09 points per possession. As you can see, their defense is not great (1.07) which is 10th. BG is at 1.04 going both ways, reflecting the very close games they have played. This will be a battle on both ends for the Falcons. They will need to get UT below 1.09 a possession (would be my guess) but BG has to start to make more shots. More on that.
Defense will be the first and foremost challenge for BG. BG is 5th in the MAC in defending the shot and 4th on the boards. We don't force many turnovers--and UT is pretty good at protecting the ball. The key is going to be to defend the shot. The Rockets are 3rd in 3FG attempt rate in the MAC and they are 3rd at making them. They are OK (7th) on 2FGs. BG is 4th in the MAC in defending the 3FG. This is the best offensive team BG has played since they were in the Virgin Islands. If they force misses and clear the board, they have a shot to win.
So, on the other side, BG has been excellent at taking care of the ball and good on the offensive boards. They are just not making enough shots. UT is 9th defending the shot...but BG is 10th shooting the 3FG and 4th in making 2FG. BG should be better on 3FGs than that (I don't think anyone doubts that) and this is the opportunity to start to turn that around to win a game like this.
UT is led by Marreon Jackson, the MAC's leading scorer. He's getting 22.7 PPG, shooting a wicked 47% overall and 46% from 3FG and 6 assists in MAC play, which is 2nd in the conference. This is a MAC POY-type player.
Luke Knapke is scoring 15 PPG and adding 7 RPG. He's shooting 47%. Willie Jackson is scoring 14 ppg on 53% shooting and 13 RPG, leading the MAC. He's only 6'6", Missouri transfer.
This is the big show...the kind of game championship teams win. I'll be there, hoping to get a win over the hated Rockets.
Unrelated to this post, but wondering why Chandler Turner isn't getting any playing time. Is he hurt perhaps? He was highly touted and I was expecting to see a lot of him this year based on the fact that he was a finalist for Mr. Basketball in Michigan (I think).
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