Football Season Preview

So, the first season preview of the Loeffler era...here we go.

From my perspective, this program is in a rebuild...a serious one...and I'd encourage fans to not judge the new staff too heavily on this year's results.  Here are the things weighing on this year's squad:

1.  Inattentive recruiting from Dino Babers
2.  Below adequate recruiting from Mike Jinks--a lot of defections from "highly rated" classes.

That's why the roster is so thin...then add in...

3.  That this is the first year any of our existing players have benefitted from a D1-quality player development program....not to mention strength and conditioning...
4.   Even your best-case scenario at QB is completely unproven...

and you have the makings of a very rough year.  BG won 3 last year...and lost some key players from an already depleted team...

• For example, BG was 8th in scoring offense and lost its QB and best WR
• BG was 9th in scoring defense and lost its two best defensive players, at least.  7 of BG's top 9 tacklers did not return, 

Just here to tell you, that on paper things are going to be very rough.  You just don't dig out of this kind of mess in the first year.

I hear you, though.  The echoes of 2001 are ringing in your head.  A young coach no one has ever heard of shows up and takes a 2-9 team to an 8-3 team.  Beat Northwestern.  Destroyed Toledo.  It was a great time to be a Falcon fan.

Let's look at that lineup on the field in Evanston...Josh Harris, Joe Alls, Khary Campbell, Robert Redd, a guy name Bautista who is banned from being referenced here by his full name, Kurt Gerling, Chris Haneline, Brandon Hicks.

Not trying to be a downer, but just think it's worth taking a little bit of a wait and see attitude this year.

This also isn't like 2016, when Jinks took over a championship team that we probably overrated but then gave up the program's two worst losses ever in his first four games and we hadn't overrated them that much.

This is a 3-9 team.  Loeffler is here for a reason.

I like how Loeffler is approaching the job.  I like his assistants, I like his focus, I like his recruiting and I like his determination.  Hasn't coached a game yet, but so far you have to like it.  Whether he wins here or not remains to be seen.  To me, the biggest issue is that we not fall into the Ball State trap, where Brady was replaced by the wrong guy and they are still struggling.  Again, Loeffler hasn't coached a game yet, but I like the approach.  The players also seem to.

I think the ceiling is four wins....and then you add in that Kent beat us last year, Akron is picked ahead of us and will be as desperate for a win as the Falcons will be...and you're down to a possibility of two wins.  CMU is expected to be bad...I'd like to think we win that one at home.  Honestly, I don't think we win all three of these or lose all three.

If you're looking for more wins, you'd need to win all of those and then @Miami and @UB to get to 6-6.

Here's what 4-8 looks like....

Morgan State WIN
@K-State  LOSS
LA Tech  LOSS
@Kent  WIN
@ND    LOSS
UT   LOSS
CMU WIN
@WMU  LOSS
AK  WIN
@Miami LOSS
OU  LOSS
@UB  LOSS

Anyway, I'd say 2-3 wins is the most likely amount.  If I'm wrong, nobody will be happier than me.

BG's is also implementing a new system on both sides of the ball.  BG's defense changes systems more than Elton John changes costumes.  On the offensive side, BG is going pro-style, which means a lot of two TE sets.  As Coach Loeffler has described it, you want TEs who block and catch because it puts the defense in a quandry...they either guard them with a LB and are open to the pass or put a CB on them and are open to the run.  Of course, that means you need a TE who can beat a LB in coverage, which we have yet to see, since we were rotating failed defensive players through the TE position last year.  This is the most despised offense on the internet, I kid you not.  That's doesn't have to mean anything.  If BG can maintain control of the ball, it helps the defense out a lot and NIU has played successfully (to say the least) in a power style.  Also, it gets cold and windy at the end of the season.

As for the defense, Brian Van Gorder is in town.  If the internet hates anyone as badly as they hate Loeffler, it's Van Gorder.  We haven't heard too much from Van Gorder, but in previous stops his defense has been described as complex, pro-style and heavy on zone blitzes.  Whether he tempers that for his BG defense has yet to be seen.  Van Gorder (and Loeffler) have had some high-profile failures, but that happens.

Everyone thought hiring Dave Clawson (#clawfense) was the worst move ever, too.

Anyway, it is great to have the team back.  Let's support them and let's get back where we belong.