Let's just pause and think about that. BG has not really played a big game--like a standings-wise big game--since Chris Jans was here. There have been exciting games, but no BIG games.
Only two teams in the MAC with 1 loss. Ranked Buffalo team. This is a big game.
So let's stop and be thankful for a moment to be playing in big games again. It's worth noting.
I believe BG can win this game. As I will detail below, Buffalo is very good. BG will have to play their best game and get the home crowd into the game and I think they can win, but anything less than a stellar effort won't do. BG has exceeded expectations all season. Why not now?
Buffalo is just really good. They are 19-2. There's only 1 non-d1 win in there. They won @WVU and @Syracuse and beat a good San Francisco team on a neutral floor. Their only losses are @Marquette and @NIU. They played the #110 non-conference schedule in the country. Their average MAC winning margin is 15 points. They have not won by less than 9. They lead the MAC in offense and defense.
This is a really good basketball team. Yet, they lost @NIU. They can be beaten. It's just very difficult.
Look at these gaps. Again, that's the best offensive and defensive efficiency in the MAC. BG is very good--#3 in offense and #2 in defense--and yet look at the size of those gaps. This has the potential to be a very good game.
One note. UB plays very fast, at 75 possessions a game. The next team in the MAC plays at 71. Season-long, they play at the 10th fastest pace in the country.
Looking at the UB Offense/BG defense first, you see a team that does everything well. They are #2 in shooting, #1 in turnovers, #4 in offensive rebounds and #3 at getting to the line, although they are #10 at making them when they get there. They lead the MAC in 2FG% (57%), and are #8 in 3FG shooting, although they try a lot.
This is where the game is going to turn. BG won't outscore Buffalo. BG leads the MAC in defending the shot, however, and that's going to be key. The results need to be much closer to the BG numbers here than the Buffalo numbers.
Flipping it around, UB is number 2 against the shot, #1 in forcing turnovers, and #5 in offensive rebounding. They do give up some FTs, but that's not something BG has been good at capitalizing on. Note the TOs. They only commit a turnover on 15% of their possessions and force them on 22%. Right there, that represents a significant increase in offensive possessions. They are #3 in 2FG defense and in 3FG defense. BG, interestingly, is last in 2FG% as an offense. Even if BG has good defense, they will need to score as well.
Buffalo has some great players, probably led by CJ Massinburg. He's the 7th most efficient player in the MAC on offense. Noting that the fast pace Buffalo plays at will inflate these numbers, Massinburg is scoring 18 ppg on 47% and 41% shooting and is #3 in the MAC in terms of turnover rate (in a good way). He also averages 6.7 rebounds and 3 assists per game. He's also 3rd in drawing fouls and makes 77% at the line. He's probably under-appreciated, despite being first team all-MAC last season.
Jeremy Harris is scoring 14 PPG. All-MAC second team, he led the league in scoring in conference play last year. He's less efficient, at 41% and 31%, and adds 6 RPG.
Their other double-figure scorer is Nick Perkins, who always comes off the bench. He averages 14% on 46% and 36% shooting to go with a team-high 7.7 rebounds.
They are the 18th most experienced team in the nation.
Ball State's Coach said that Buffalo has a "relentless" quality to them. They just keep coming at you and it wears you down. BG's going to need to make a bunch of plays, keep the crowd in the game and not let the Bulls go on any big runs. They can be beaten. Why not us? Let's back our boys.
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