Anyway, this is a tough one. UB is the regular-season title holder and are 22-8. Their kenpom is #86. Now, on the plus side, there is absolutely nothing to play for. I don't think this is the NFL where guys are going to outright sit, but UB has nothing to play for. Even with that, I think they have a shot at taking down our guys.
The game in Buffalo was just a couple weeks ago. It wasn't a complete disaster, like when the guys BG played in Toledo and Norfolk earlier in the year. BG had the lead at 3 in the second half and in the single digits down much of the stretch run, but eventually lost by 13.
UB is the #2 offensive and #2 defensive team in the MAC. They lead the MAC in shooting, and they certainly lived that out in the first meeting, listed below. You shoot that well and take good care of the ball, you don't care about offensive rebounds or about FTs, and they were even average at that. BG shot much worse and made the most positive contribution by going 25 of 29 at the line.
This team is an offensive juggernaut. They have four players scoring 14 or more. Nick Perkins (18 on 52% plus 6.5 RPG), Jeremy Harris (17.5% on 55% plus 6 RPG), CJ Massinburg (15.6 on 49%, plus 7.4 RPG) and Wes Clark (14 on 47%).
They are just a very solid team. Since the BG win, they lost @Miami, and then easily beat OU and Akron at home. All 3 of their MAC losses have come on the road.
BG's going to have to force some misses this time to have a shot. It would be great to continue to draw fouls. They are 2nd to last in allowing FTs in the MAC, so that might be an opening. BG is in the midst of a four-game losing streak--more than Buffalo's total number of losses in the MAC for the year. Having said that, you never know, especially for a game that is important for one team and not the other. BG has to play better on both ends of the floor or none of this will matter.
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