Da Bulls

And so, on a Friday night on national television, the Bowling Green Falcons will face what is probably their most difficult opponent of the year since they played ODU and maybe the whole year.  They are the highest ranked team in the MAC and are 11-2, the same record as UT, and you saw what happened when BG played UT at Savage.

It isn't that they can't be beaten.  They have lost to Kent and NIU.  Thing is, both of those games were on the road.  They've lost at home only once this year, and that was to a really good St. Bonaventure team.  They are just really good this year.  Nate Oats will be courted by a lot of other programs, whether he can be convinced to stay or not remains to be seen, but Buffalo has developed into a basketball power and frankly have are positioned to be a Gonzaga if they were able to sustain some coaching continuity.

They are #2 in the MAC in offense and defense.  That's how good teams are made.  They will present a major challenge to the BG defense, as you can see below.  Buffalo also plays at the fastest pace in the MAC, which means they feel the same way about getting a stop that BG does.  (The MAC is the #11 ranked conference by tempo, which is in the top 3rd of all the conferences).

So, how do you get to be that good on offense?  Well, here you go.  First, Buffalo is the best shooting team in the MAC.  They are #1 in 2FG% and #3 at the 3FG.  That's going to help.  They are also #3 in taking care of the ball and in offensive rebounding.  So, that's a pretty good profile  They don't get to the line a lot and they are 8th in FT%.  Even with all that, BG has simply got to find a way to get stops or hope Buffalo has a cold night.  The Falcons will have a hard time out-scoring this offense if it is firing on all cylinders.

On defense, they pretty much defend as BG scores.  Problem is that they are #3 in defense and BG is #10 on offense.  They are 3rd in defending the shot and 3rd in defending the boards.  They don't force a lot of turnovers and they do give up some free throws, so they are not a bullet-proof defense, but they are very good.  BG is the worst shooting team in the MAC, as a reminder.

Individually, here is the scary part.  Three of Buffalo's 4 top scorers are juniors.  Hmmmm.  Anyway, they are led by Nick Perkins, he is scoring 18 PPG in 28 minutes.  He's shooting 52% and adding 7.2 RPG.  He should be a POY candidate, but I am not sure he is in the conversation.  He's 6'8" and from Milan HS, of all places. 

Their second-leading scorer is Jeremy Harris, who came to UB as the #2 JUCO player in the country.  He's 6'7" and scoring 17.6 PPG, shooting 56% and 46% to go with 6 RPG.

CJ Massinburg is scoring 15 PPG, shooting 49% and 35% and 6.9 RPG, which is impressive from a guy who is 6'3".

These three guys just play really long and present matchup problems for everyone and that would include our guys.

Wes Clark is scoring 12.8 PPG on 47% and 38% shooting to go with 5.3 APG over 1.9 Turnovers.  That's the #2 A/T ratio in the conference.

There's depth, too.  This is a very solid basketball team.  Whether BG can pull what would be the biggest upset in the MAC this year will be seen on Friday.