BG heads into Savage Arena under probably the worst possible scenario possible. On one hand you have BG entering having been embarrassed by below average teams over the last 52 minutes, while UT has won 6 straight after losing to Buffalo to open MAC play...Buffalo being the clear #1 in the MAC to date.
This is going to be a tough one. As mentioned in the preview of the NIU game, you didn't know whether the NIU collapse was going to bring a resilient rally or a collapse in confidence. Having seen the latter, you have to think its going to be tough to get by this one.
On the other hand, this is why we love sports. Because you never know.
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But we're at the "you never know" or "throw out the record book" stage of this conversation.
UT is the top offensive team in the MAC, with 1.19 points per possession in conference play. This is an amazing number. They are just scoring hot. Meanwhile, they are 5th in defense in the MAC. That's a pretty good combo. Meanwhile BG is #10 in offense and #4 in defense, rapidly falling after the NIU game. Simply put, if BG doesn't win the battles on the defensive end, they have no chance of outscoring the Rockets.
So what makes UT so strong on offense? It is a deadly combination. They are just really good shooters. They are #1 in the MAC and #22 in the country in EFG. 44% of their FGA are from 3FG and they make a ridiculous 46% from 3FG in MAC play. That #22 in the country and #1 in the MAC. They make roughly the same percentage from 3FG that BG makes from 2FG. They combine that shooting with being #3 at taking care of the ball and #2 in getting to the line. They are #10 in offensive rebound %, but they don't miss that often anyway.
On the flip side, things are more evenly matched. BG is #10 in shooting and #10 in turning the ball over--both bad results. BG will need to get some made shots from its struggling shooters and then get to the line and make FTs at a high rate to stay competitive in this game.
Individually, the Rockets are led by Tre-Shaun Fletcher, the Colorado transfer playing his only season for UT. In MAC play he's scoring 20 PPG on 50% and 45% shooting, which will get it done in any league, plus 7.4 RPG and 4.4 APG. Those are Player of the Year numbers. Jaelan Sanford is scoring 18 PPG on 48% and 46% shooting, also incredibly efficient for a big scorer. They have Navigato, Knapke and Marreon Jackson, all scoring 9 PPG. Knapke contributes 5.9 RPG.
To date, UT is the second best team in the MAC. BG did beat them last year at the Stroh, but has not won @UT since 2011 when UT was 4-28. UT did win 2 out of 3 against BG last yea.r
So, this one has a horrible set up for BG. The Falcons will have to show some serious resilience to get this one done. Not that it couldn't happen, but I fear these are the wrong teams playing at the wrong part of the year.
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