Sunday, November 05, 2017

On the Red Zone Ranking


So, Coach Jinks talked recently about BG being 100% in the red zone and how that wasn't the most instructive way to look at it.  Just a quick analysis to show why he's right about that.

Here is the thing.  The traditional ranking of red zone success just measures scores and non-scores.  Obviously, a TD is worth double what a FG is and in the red zone, a FG falls into the better than nothing category.  So, I have been doing this for a while...tracking points per trip, which I think is much more accurate.  (I first came up with this idea during Urban Meyer II, when BG was absolutely deadly in the red zone).

Anyway, you just arbitrarily give 7 points for each TD and 3 for a FG and divide by the number of trips.

You get what you see above.  Which shows a good BG red zone offense, but not the best in the conference.

OU is just great.  They are 21-22 with 18 touchdowns.  That's a team cashing in on their opportunities.  Akron hardly gets there at all, but does score when they do. (This is MAC games only).  And BG is third, leading the MAC with 8 red zone FGs.  The difference for between BG and OU is 5 points a game.

Just a different way of looking at it...and I believe more reflective of true red zone performance.

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